To note that predicting what will win in Cannes is an increasingly arbitrary business is to indulge in a little preemptive excuse making, but it is also to acknowledge how increasingly arbitrary awards-show categories are. Most of the year's most interesting, effective or lauded work is stuff that exists across a number of platforms or that represents an idea that's bigger than its media parts.
And that's as it should be, a sign of agencies doing what they're supposed to. There is a healthy assortment of compelling ideas and executions in contention for Lions, and the best of them are easy to spot. The trick is deciding how certain judges will categorize certain ideas.
Another sign of the health of the industry, if not the awards process: As with the last few years, film is not the sole climax of the proceedings. Titanium- and integrated-type wins will perhaps be most anticipated among creatives and, surely, what many of the Cannes-going clients will be studying most keenly.
Here, Creativity's picks. Mix and match them, and they'll probably represent a good chunk of the winners at Cannes this year.
Crispin Porter & Bogusky's Simpsonizer site
. Part of the integrated PR machine that was the "Simpsons Movie" launch campaign, the site made Simpsons characters out of regular folk like you and me and the zillion other people who Simpsonized their Facebook pictures. Crispin will also win for its eminently useful BFD site for Dominos.
DDB Stockholm's Swedish Armed Forces Recruitment Tests site
. DDB and Acne Digital whipped up an absorbing set of mental challenges to determine one's fitness to serve in an army that, if nothing else, would intimidate opponents with its blue-eyed good looks.
The interactive portion of the Halo 3 campaign
. The AKQA-created online accompaniment to TAG San Francisco's award-magnet "Believe" campaign offers a real complementary interactive experience, not just online housing for films.
Arcade Fire's Neon Bible
. A quiet favorite among awards judges, this neat-o interactive music video from the Montreal band and production company Nu Films is a sure Gold winner and could just about pull off a Grand Prix sneak.
Uniqlo's Uniqlock from Japan's Projector. The self-described "music dance clock" is a happy, crowd-pleasing, monumentally successful entry. It's won, among many other prizes, Best in Show at the Tokyo Interactive Festival and the One Show and a Black Pencil at D&AD. It will win in Cannes.