With these billion-dollar-plus dot-com valuations once again the talk of the town, it didn't take long for our internal alarm bells to start ringing. So we decided to take a trip back through time to see if history can teach us anything about the current social media investment frenzy. What we found through the maturation of many social-media technologies and sectors was a four-part process. First step is the promise of first-mover status. Next comes the media embrace of the rival -- oftentimes, a bigger, better funded challenger -- that can often feel like strangulation. Given enough time, what emerges is a true innovator that helps cement real market dominance and grows the sector. But, as with so many tech stories, there always is a future shock waiting just around the corner.
Blogger, LiveJournal, MySpace, Mercata, Picasa, Friendster and even Walmart are part of the historical narrative we ended up sketching.
You can see the whole story on the presentation. The story is far from over. Let us know what other social-media sectors we should document.
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