Let's also stipulate that the future will live online. And let's go even farther out on a limb by agreeing that aggregators of user-generated video at the moment represent the most likely link from A to B.
Let's assume all of the above, because I'm working on a large piece on the subject and wanted to pose the most salient questions. 1) How will the Leading National Advertisers deal with the uncertainty of the UGV environment? Does Pedigree, to cite a relatively benign example, want to risk buying an adjacency with a home video of a dog exploding?
2) Will consumers, or aggregators themselves, countenance "pre-roll" 30-second spots attached to 45-second long UGVs? And will they stick around to see "post-rolls?"
3) Will the novelty wear off as crap fatigue over amateurish UGVs kicks in?
4) If consumers tolerate text and banners adjacent to videos, who says UGV content needs to have video advertising sponsoring it? Do the inherent advantages of internet advertising become measurably more valuable witht he addition of sound and motion? If not, whither the 30-second spot?
5) Are brand advertisers (and their spot-obsessed agencies) psychologically prepared to shift TV budgets to online advertising that isn't video itself?
6) Will marketers despoil the UGV environment by pumping in ads camouflaged as "content?"
7) Regarding item 1 above, what mechanisms are being developed to filter out and/or certify content on taste grounds?
8) Regarding item 4, to exploit the internet's capability of contextualizing ads with the adjacent content, videos must have underlying metadata embedded. Right now that data is scant verging on useless; how will it be fleshed out?
Well, I don't have a 9th or 10th key question. Do you?