NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- ZenithOptimedia has upgraded its global ad-spending forecast again, now predicting 2.2% growth in 2010, up from the 0.9% increase it had projected four months ago, which was itself a slightly more optimistic projection than the 0.5% gain anticipated before that.
"Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world," ZenithOptimedia said in a report Wednesday morning. "Ad expenditure is accelerating in bullish developing markets, while in the developing world the downturn is coming to an end more quickly than expected."
That doesn't necessarily mean the U.S. media and marketing businesses are done with the pain. North America led the world into recession and will be the last region to emerge, according to ZenithOptimedia, which predicted a 1.5% drop in ad spending here this year.
The U.S. will see ad spending slip another 2%, the agency predicted, much better than last year's 12.9% decline but still not a rebound. The United States can expect, however, a 1.6% gain in ad spending in 2011, when ad spending will grow 1.8% in North America and 4.1% globally, the forecast said.
Spending by medium
The internet grew its share of global ad spending to 12.6% last year from 10.5% in 2008, surpassing magazines' slice of the pie for the first time, and will keep growing in share -- to 13.9% this year, 15.4% next year and 17.1% in 2012, according to ZenithOptimedia, which is part of Publicis Groupe. By that point global ad spending online will be in striking distance of newspapers, which got 23.1% of the world's ad spend last year but will garner 21.7% this year and just 19.4% in 2012.
Magazines' share of worldwide ad spending fell to 10.3% in 2009 from 11.6% in 2008 and is expected to fall to 9.6% this year, 9.1% in 2011 and 8.6% in 2012. Radio, which held even at 7.7% last year, is projected to decline to 7.5% this year and 7.3% in 2011 before holding steady again in 2012.
Television is the only major medium besides the web that the agency expects to keep expanding its share of global ad spending. "Television spend fell 6.7% in 2009, but its market share has increased from 38.1% to 39.4%," the ZenithOptimedia report said. "We expect it to continue to increase its share over the rest of our forecast period, reaching 40.6% in 2012, thanks to the rise of the developing markets, where television is generally a much more dominant medium than in developed markets."