It's a rocky road to global ad recovery.
The political turmoil in Egypt, coupled with the earthquake and its aftermath in Japan, will account for a $2.4 billion loss this year in global ad expenditures, according to a new forecast from Publicis Groupe media agency ZenithOptimedia.
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Although the sector overall is experiencing continued growth, the agency is already pulling back on its initial estimates for 2011. The agency now predicts global ad spending will rise 4.2% this year, down from the 4.6% boost it forecast in December. And those estimates could further sink depending on how many obstacles to returning to normalcy Japan faces. Developing markets, which ZenithOptimedia defines as everywhere outside North America, Western Europe and Japan, will raise their share of the global ad market from 30.9% in 2010 to 35.1% in 2013, ZenithOptimedia estimates.
The U.S. is expected to grow 2.5% next year to $151 billion in major media (excluding direct mail, public relations or events), while Japan is expected to grow just 0.7% and the Middle East 0.1%.
The biggest gainers will be China, Russia and Brazil. According to ZenithOptimedia, China is slated to overtake Germany to become the world's third-largest ad market by 2013, just behind Japan. Brazil is expected to overtake France this year, and become the sixth largest, while Russia is expected to rise from 12th place to 10th.
When looking at ad spending worldwide by medium, it's clear that reports of the death of the TV spot have been largely exaggerated. TV remains, by a wide margin, the largest medium, and its slice of the ad pie is increasing. By 2013, ZenithOptimedia predicts it will count for 41.7% of all ad spending.
While TV will reign supreme for the foreseeable future, digital channels continue to attract more dollars globally, with ZenithOptimedia predicting digital advertising will become the second-biggest medium by 2013, overtaking newspapers.