NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Of the three major ad spending forecasts issued every year at this time agency folks will be most inspired by Magna's report, which predicts global ad spending will rise 6% in 2010 and continue on a sustained pace of 5% increases each year through 2015.
However, in his first global forecast since replacing Robert Coen as Magna's global director of forecasting, Brian Wieser is predicting that the drop-off for 2009 will be 15% -- a much more significant cut than the 10.2% decline projected by Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia and the 6.6% drop reported by WPP's Group M.
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The report by the Interpublic Group of Cos. agency also projects that advertising spending in the U.S. will be $133 billion in 2010. On a global basis, the report shows that North America is expected to post 1% growth in 2010, the lowest amount of all regions, but up significantly from a 16% decline in 2009. The region is on pace for sustained growth rates of 2% over the next five years, Mr. Wieser said. Latin America, in U.S. dollars, fell only 5% during 2009, led by a strong Brazilian ad economy. It is expected to grow by 12% in 2010, and "continue with robust growth over the next five years, up an average of 7% for each year through 2015."
Mr. Wieser said Europe, the Middle East and Africa will recover in 2010 with growth of 6%, up from a nasty decline of 20% decline this year. He said he expects growth in EMEA to continue at a 4% pace over the next five years. And by the end of 2009, Mr. Wieser, in his report, said the Asia-Pacific region will have fallen by 6% but "should rebound to grow nearly 14% during 2010, with China emerging as the largest advertising economy in the region." That market is expected to grow 9% on an annual basis over the next five years.
Magna's report concludes that the online advertising industry will generate more than $60 billion in 2010, 16% of global advertising spending, and nearly $100 billion by 2015. By 2015, Mr. Wieser anticipates that magazine advertising revenue will be $35 billion, down from $40 billion in 2000; newspapers will generate $92 billion, down from $97 billion in 2000; outdoor will have grown to $34 billion from $16 billion; radio will actually grow slightly over this 15-year period to $31 billion, up from $29 billion; and TV will remain the dominant player, nearly doubling its ad revenue over that time period, from $105 billion to $189 billion.