TNS Predicts 'Tepid' Gain in Ad Spending for '07

Expects Internet Share to Rise, Network TV to Fall

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NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Ad spending in the U.S. will rise only 2.6% this year to $153.7 billion, according to a forecast released this morning by TNS Media Intelligence, which called the increase a "tepid gain." It would represent the smallest increase since the media business left the 2001 recession behind -- certainly smaller than the 3.8% boost TNS estimates occurred in 2006.
While 2007 lacks major political campaigns, the Olympics, the World Cup and other events that tend to drive ad spending, some winners still emerge.
While 2007 lacks major political campaigns, the Olympics, the World Cup and other events that tend to drive ad spending, some winners still emerge.

Inflation held down
"Media fragmentation is continuing to expand the supply of ad inventory," said Steven Fredericks, president-CEO, TNS. "That expansion of inventory is holding down media price inflation. At the same time we're seeing improved effectiveness in terms of what advertisers believe they're getting out of it. It's allowing large spenders to trim their spending by shifting expenditures into new media, which costs less."

This year also lacks major political campaigns, the Olympics, the World Cup and other events that tend to drive ad spending.

Within that context, some winners still emerge. It won't surprise anyone that TNS, which doesn't even include keyword search in its internet-ad-spend estimates, forecasts a 13.4% increase in web ad spending, giving the internet a 7.2% share of the total spend -- up from 6.5% in 2006.

Syndicated TV to grow 6.6%
Syndicated TV will grow the most after the web, according to TNS, with a 6.6% gain in spending and a 0.1% increase in share. Outdoor has a similar outlook, with a 2.6% expansion forecast and a 0.1% bump in share.

Consumer and Sunday magazines look relatively strong too, with 5.5% growth expected and a 0.4% increase in share anticipated. That increase, TNS predicts, will bring the category to 17.9% share.

But TNS sees network TV growing a mere 0.6% and losing share of 0.3% to land at 15.2%. Newspapers, not including advertising on their websites, will lose 0.9% from 2006 and will see their share fall to 17.7% from 18.4%.

Bad outlook for spot TV
Spot TV stands to see the worst decline in percentage terms, falling 2.8% this year if TNS is proved correct. That would reduce its slice of the total pie to 10.9% from 11.6%.

"The move to digital platforms is completely turning the industry upside down," Mr. Fredericks said. "Everybody's trying to cope with it. And some of the conservativeness in ad spending has to do with some confusion in how to spend the money."

Today's TNS forecast follows a series of projections regarding overall ad spending from other quarters, including a 2.4% gain forecast by Group M, a 3% increase by eMarketer's estimation; a 4.1% climb according to ZenithOptimedia and a bullish 4.8% jump anticipated by Universal McCann.
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