While Zenith OptiMedia Group downgraded its 2002 worldwide ad spending forecast (see The Week, P. 12), U.S. analysts continue to upgrade, mainly based on stronger-than-expected TV sales. But as advertisers continue to book ads close to deadline, broadcast forecasts vary wildly and print still looks grim across the board.
2002 U.S. ad spending vs. 2001:
UBS Lehman Bros. Deutsche Bank
Newspapers 0% -1% n/a
Magazines 0% -4% n/a
Network TV 0% -4% 3%
Spot TV 5% n/a 2%
Syndication 1% n/a -6%
Broadcast TV total n/a 3.5% 1.8%
Cable TV 1% 5% 0.3%
Radio 3% 3.5% 3.5%
Billboard -2% n/a -3.6%
Other outdoor 0% n/a 0%
Out-of-home total -1% 1% -2%
Internet -5% 0% n/a
U.S. advertising total 1% 1.4% 1%
non-measured media 0% 3% n/a
services total 0.7% 2.4 n/a
Source: Analyst reports from Leland Westerfield, UBS Warburg; Kevin Sullivan, Lehman Bros.; Andrew Marcus, Deutsche Bank Securities
Good earnings are good news: A batch of more optimistic earnings reports and an apparent easing of tensions in the Middle East helped the stock market recover some ground. Ford Motor Co. and American Express Co. rose after posting encouraging quarterly results, but many consumer products were beaten down as investors took the recovery talk as a hint to sell recessionary "safe harbor" stocks such as pharmaceuticals and food companies. For the week, 37 AdMarket stocks were up and 13 were down.
Agency companies continue to bring in the rear of the recovery, while media stocks were split between better-performing broadcast names such as Clear Channel and Univision and lower performers among print-dominated names such as Dow Jones & Co. and Gannett Co.
Advertising Age and Bloomberg's AdMarket 50 index of 50 top publicly traded marketers, agency and media companies for the week ended April 19 2002, based on stock trading data supplied by Bloomberg financial news service. All comparisons are based on closing prices April 12.