Lehman Brothers advertising industry analyst Kevin Sullivan revised his U.S. total to forecast a drop of 0.3% from a 2% rate of growth, and that non-U.S. spending would grow 3%, down from a rate of 4% growth.
According to Mr. Sullivan's U.S. forecast, magazine and television ad spending will each decline 3%, while newspaper spending will drop 2.5%. Meanwhile, spending will grow 5% on cable TV, 3% on outdoor and 1% on radio.
"Although '01 looks like a 'lost year,' we expected the ad market to firm some next year due to a stronger economic outlook, Olympics and local and congressional elections," Mr. Sullivan said in a report issued today. His 2002 forecast calls for 4.5% U.S. growth (down from 5.6%) and 5% growth overseas, down from 6%.
Mr. Sullivan's forecast is the latest industry reevaluation to follow the revised outlook by Universal McCann's senior vice president Robert Coen, the U.S. industry's top forecaster, who dropped his projection from 5.8% growth last December to 2.5% at his midyear update (see related feature story The Ad Economy: "Stormy and Poor").
UBS Warburg's Christopher Dixon has projected 2% growth in 2001, while Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Lauren Rich Fine has called for a 0.7% drop in spending. -- Mercedes Cardona
Copyright July 2001, Crain Communications Inc.