AdWatch

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Turnsignals

The AdMarket still is laboring, with ad jobs as a percentage of U.S. employment continuing to slip (1.32% in Dec. '00, 1.18% in Jan. '05, 1.16% in June). How the AdMarket has changed since Dec. '00 (ad job peak), May '02 (start of ad-spend recovery), Jan. '04 (ad job nadir) and Jan. '05.

Employment % change, 6/00 vs.

Sector 6/05 12/00 5/02 1/04 1/05

Ad agencies 167.8 -18.5% -4.2% 2.2% 3.8%

Media buying agencies 40.6 -5.8% 3.3% 6.8% 0.7%

Direct mail 68.1 -23.1% -12.0% -3.3% -0.6%

PR agencies 46.3 -17.9% -2.5% 4.0% 3.3%

Adv. material distribution, other adv. services 82.5 2.9% 10.0% 10.1% 5.0%

Graphic design 67.5 -17.8% -5.1% 6.1% 4.2%

Marketing consulting 103.3 18.3% 18.7% 3.0% 4.7%

Marketing research 111.6 -6.5% -0.5% 5.5% 2.8%

Advertising/marketing services1 687.7 -9.9% 0.5% 3.9% 3.3%

TV broadcasting 130.9 -4.9% 0.1% 2.8% 1.5%

Cable and other subscription programming 87.1 -9.2% -5.7% 3.8% -0.1%

Radio broadcasting 113.2 -0.8% 2.6% 3.0% -1.6%

Newspapers 366.6 -13.3% -5.0% -2.8% -0.2%

Magazines 142.1 -16.9% -8.4% -0.1% 1.4%

Internet media 36.1 -29.4% 5.2% 27.1% 4.6%

Media2 876.0 -11.8% -3.6% 0.8% 0.3%

Total U.S. AdMarket employment3 1,563.7 -10.9% -1.9% 2.1% 1.6%

Total U.S. employment4 133,579.0 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 0.8%

Jobs in 1,000s. 1. Ad, media, direct and PR agencies; graphic design; marketing consultants; market research; and other ad/marketing services. 2. TV, radio, newspaper, magazine and Internet media. 3. Advertising/marketing services plus media. 4. Non-farm, seasonally adjusted. Source: Ad Age analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Focus on: Dow Jones & Co. (DJ)

Dow Jones rose in recent weeks on takeover speculation, but the stock remains far below its '00 bubble peak ($76.75) and even its '80s high ($56 before the '87 crash). Revenue last year ($1.67 billion) was virtually unchanged from 15 years earlier ($1.69 billion in '89). The stock's '05 low ($31.94) wasn't much above its '87 bottom ($28). Dow has not kept up with the Joneses: The Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at six times its '87 nadir; the company's stock is up 44%.

1. Currrent price/estimated '05 earnings per share. 2. Market cap plus debt minus cash. 3. 2004.

Source: Bloomberg, company reports, Ad Age analysis

Last week's score

Surprisingly, investors have so farr shrugged off Katrina and $70-a-barrel oil. The AdMarket was virtually flat; the overall market rose 1.2%.

Advertising Age and Bloomberg's AdMarket 50 tracks 50 top marketer, media and agency companies. Bloomberg symbol: BAAX

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