CHART - Turn Signals

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The bad news just keeps on coming. The Conference Board recently summed up economic indicators and concluded that the U.S. gross domestic product will probably drop during the fourth quarter and that the economy could fall into a recession-officially. Its forecast, based on several economic indicators, goes against the conventional wisdom that has called all year for a sharp downturn and sharp recovery. The Conference Board's new view: Next year will be weak, too, and recovery will be slower than expected.

Full year projections

2001 2002

GDP growth 1.1% 0.9%

Unemployment rate 4.8% 6.0%

Consumer spending growth 2.8% 1.3%

Capital spending growth -3.7% -5.5%

Source: Conference Board

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