×

Once registered, you can:

  • - Read additional free articles each month
  • - Comment on articles and featured creative work
  • - Get our curated newsletters delivered to your inbox

By registering you agree to our privacy policy, terms & conditions and to receive occasional emails from Ad Age. You may unsubscribe at any time.

Are you a print subscriber? Activate your account.

Here's How Nate Silver Did With His Oscar Predictions

For Starters, He Failed to Predict That Jennifer Lawrence Would Trip on the Stairs

By Published on .

Nate Silver
Nate Silver Credit: Earl Wilson/New York Times
Nate Silver, the man who predicted President Barack Obama's reelection and correctly called all 50 states -- and is included in this year's just-released Ad Age Digital A-List -- issued his Oscar predictions (for the top six categories) last week in a post titled "Oscar Predictions, Election-Style." His approach was to "look solely at the other awards that were given out in the run-up to the Oscars: the closest equivalent to pre-election polls. These have always been the best predictors of Oscar success."

How'd he do? Here's your executive summary:

Best Picture: "Argo" -- correct!
Best Director: Steven Spielberg -- incorrect! (Ang Lee actually won. It's worth noting that Silver gave Spielberg only the slightest statistical edge over Lee.)
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis -- right!
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Jennifer Lawrence -- right!
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones -- wrong! (Christoph Waltz actually won. Silver wrote that Waltz "might be my choice if I were going based on which performance I liked the most, instead of trying to guess at what the Academy will do.")
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway -- right!

~ ~ ~

Simon Dumenco is the "Media Guy" columnist for Advertising Age. You can follow him on Twitter @simondumenco.

Most Popular
In this article: