New U.S. Census to Reveal Major Shift: No More Joe Consumer
Ad Age White Paper 2010 America Uncovers the Marketing Implications
LOS ANGELES (AdAge.com) -- The 2010 Census is expected to find that 309 million people live in the United States. But one person will be missing: the average American.
"The concept of an 'average American' is gone, probably forever," demographics expert Peter Francese writes in 2010 America, a new Ad Age white paper. "The average American has been replaced by a complex, multidimensional society that defies simplistic labeling."
| AD AGE WHITE PAPER | |
| 2010 America, a new 32-page white paper by Peter Francese, analyzes what the 2010 census will reveal about the changing face of consumers. Click here to purchase the white paper. | |
The census is the biggest market-research project of the decade. The Census Bureau will spend upward of $15 billion to count the population as of April 1, 2010, and amass a treasure-trove of data on U.S. consumers.
"The decennial census will tell us quite precisely how American consumers have changed in the past decade," Mr. Francese writes. "It also will give us clues about where the consumer marketplace is moving. The census is the gold standard against which the results of all major consumer-research studies are benchmarked."
The Census Bureau will begin releasing data in spring 2011. Mr. Francese, demographic trends analyst at WPP's Ogilvy & Mather, New York, and founder of American Demographics magazine, now offers projections and insight on what the census will show.
His 32-page report, available at AdAge.com/2010America, will give marketers a window on what the census will show and how to adapt those findings in a marketing world reliant on broadscale demographics that no longer exist.
Selected findings of 2010 America:
"This census will show that no household type neatly describes even one-third of households," Mr. Francese writes. "The iconic American family -- married couple with children -- will account for a mere 22% of households."
The most prevalent type of U.S. household? Married couple with no kids, followed closely by single-person households, according to Mr. Francese's projections.
The Census will give Americans 14 choices to define household relationships. Mr. Francese says this will "enable the Census Bureau to count not only traditional families but also the number and growth since 2000 of blended families, single-parent families and multigenerational families, as well as multiple families doubling up in one household."
That presents boundless opportunities for marketers and media in how they target and segment households.
Mr. Francese notes how diversity varies greatly by age, "with the younger population substantially more diverse than the old."
Consider these 2010 projections: 80% of people age 65-plus will be white non-Hispanics. But just 54% of children under age 18 will be white non-Hispanics. Mr. Francese observes: "White non-Hispanics will surely account for fewer than half of births by 2015."
In 2010, Hispanics will be both the nation's fastest-growing and largest minority (50 million people).
Mr. Francese's report offers his "2020 vision," analyzing how things will change over the next decade. "Our nation will be older and more diverse, and consumer markets more complex," he writes. The white paper pinpoints age and income groups where marketers could find the biggest opportunities.
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Peter Francese wrote and Bradley Johnson edited 2010 America.
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The delivery of instant information and media, without respect for geographic borders or temporal ones, is enabling us to quickly divide and subdivide into almost endless niche audiences that never would have coalesced before. Ad networks and publishers are slaving away creating new ways to target messages to these specialized groups. In essence, we're on the road to the day of one-to-one advertising (and yes, the privacy advocates have a long road ahead of them as well).
Jeff Greenhouse
President, Singularity Design
http://www.SingularityDesign.com
http://twitter.com/SingularityDsgn
If you are plugged in, using social media tools, listening to consumers, and noting who individuals are--not their companies, online personae, or outsourced statistics--you can acquire most, if not all, information a marketer/producing company needs to understand and communicate with customers.
Kindest regards,
Trent Sherrell
XeeSM.com/tSherrell
Been to a high school lately? A college? A local AARP meeting? Each group has its needs and wants and it doesn't matter what the skin color is, how "diverse" they are viewed, or "how complex" an analyst tries to make them.
Mike
1. Explosive growth in the diverse population - multicultural
2. Longetivity - Baby boomers
3. Behavioral change in Gen X/Y
So this is a moment of truth for CMOs and other business leaders to revisit their marketing and business strategies. Your target customer is not the typical John D. age 25 to 65 making $75k; companies without a well defined strategy for baby boomers, multicultural, women, Gen X/Y and social marketing are not targeting 80% of America. We are living in a time when your customers may prefer to be in engaged in a language other than english via media other than tv and print. Our Gen Y and teens prefer text msg rather than a verbal conversation even when they are at arm's length from us...So my question for the business leaders is "What is your strategy for changing consumers and employees?"
Also, census provides us valuable information but it is dangerous to make census a bench mark when they are 20+ years behind and they update themselves every decade. Until 1980, census counted a Vietnamese American as white and even today they count a person of Afghanistan, Iran, Saudia Arbia origin as white American. America is not a melting pot any more, it is a salad bowl - this makes this country so wonderful. We must understand the segmentation to leverage the opportunity. It is not only a nice and right thing to do - it is a must do business case!
Tariq Khan
President | Global Diversity Marketing
Ever been to a GM agency lately?
Regardless if NY is diverse, most GM agencies still don't reflect the outside diversity. Yes you may have one are two people of color there, but what about positions mid-senior level its still the same people, little or no diversity.
So if "Minorities are the new majority" why aren't they being hired at GM agencies?
And if minorities are the new majority shouldn't they become the "majority" at the GM shops?
Shouldn't minority agencies now be given a fair chance to win AOR since they now represent the majority?
Aren't gm agencies doing a disservice to themselves and the clients by not hiring people who know their target audience/consumers? Fact is, no amount of market research is gonna help you understand a changing demographic, if your agency culture/staffing doesn't reflect the diversity of its consumers.
Anybody care to answer these tough questions?
Who was/is "Joe Consumer?" What does/did he look like? Was/is the ideal, average American a white male? From what point of view is this article written?
The word minority is circumstantial and therefore inaccurate. What they are trying to say is that there are now more minoriTIZED people in the U.S. Unfortunately we still live in the legacy of oppression. We can not become a "post-racial" (post-racial currently does not exist, no matter what the news channels are telling us) America until we stop using "race" to define and drive our world.
The answers you are looking for can only come from enlightened marketers on the client side. When clients realize how much business they are leaving on the table by listenting to the often misguided counsel of their general market agencies as it pertains to diverse consumer groups, only then will the paradigm you are suggesting become possible.
However, the 2010 Census, along with other research tools, will be instrumental in continuing to build business cases that illustrate the viability of supposed "minority" consumers.
Thankfully today we have fully realized that continuous consumer engagement on a personal level can happen, should happen, needs to happen. It is sad to read that marketers still feel the strong need to label people and assign them and their life (read: spending) habits into groups of millions. The report says "a total of about 3 million people have moved out of the Northeast, and another 2 million have left the Midwest." Does that mean they all need the same moving services?
I will not mourn at the news of today's "death" of Joe Consumer. He died in the 1960s actually. It's time we communicate (listening and talking) with people and not with Consumer Groups. And, yes, the entire "Red State, Blue State" concept has got to go.
Glenn Hansen
Hansen House Communications
Given where the country is demographically, you would think that more agencies would be strategically positioning themselves to capitalize upon the reality of the near future. However, if you look at their staffing and other practices it is clear that they are much more focused on positioning themselves around media channels, i.e.- digital vs traditional, rather than the rapidly changing nature of the consumer.
My belief is that in the near future advertisers are going to wake up, and every agency that plans to be a serious competitor for their ad dollars will have to explain to its clients its multicultural strategy. And I don't think the correct answer will be - we have a multicultural sister agency.
James Briggs,
Briabe Media (www.briabemedia.com)
Kathy Heasley / Founder and Principal
HEASLEY&PARTNERS
heasleyandpartners.com
Twitter: @KathyHeasley
Facebook: www.facebook.com/kathy.heasley
Kevin O'Keefe
Author, "The Average American: The Extraordinary Search for the Nation's Most Ordinary Citizen" (www.TheAverageAmerican.com)
I am not an American but a Nigeria.Istill hold some certain positions about the American society.Like Nigeria, it is a multi cultural society and no matter the influx of certain tribe to another tribe,their unique cultural attributes would never leave them.It is innate as well as determines their purchase decisions.If ever their they change, I believe and stand corrected that it is largely as a result of a shift in their social status.So, i think to a large extent that their cultural and socio cultural should be a major but not the only determinant.
Here are a few blog posts which address cross culturalization and the lack of diversity in ad agencies.
http://bit.ly/2oiBjr
http://bit.ly/sjv56
http://bit.ly/N94kR
http://bit.ly/4wFWnm
Mark Boles
Principal, juice2.0,llc
http://www.juicemktg.com
boles.mark@juicemktg.com
Twitter: @slprquattro