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The Half-Hour Obama Hour: What Will It Mean?

Solid Closing Argument, Huge Risk or Waste of Money. You Tell Us

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Call it Barack Obama's $3.5 million gamble. As the Obama campaign readies to air a half-hour TV program at 8 p.m. EST tonight on major broadcast and some cable networks, the question is will it actually work? (See our related poll question: Smart move, huge risk or waste of money?)

Amidst discussion about how the ad dramatically showcases the media-buying advantages of the Obama campaign, there are questions about the ad's potential effectiveness. The Obama ad will air tonight on CBS, Fox, NBC, BET, Univision, TVOne and MSNBC.

The real test of the ad's success is a three-part one.

First will it be seen at all, or will viewers ignore it? Second will the ad really convert undecided voters or motivate already committed Obama voters to get out and vote? Finally, even if viewers don't view the ad, will its airing fuel enough discussion in the press, TV and radio talk shows and at water coolers to be worth the cost?

Because there is no recent history of half-hour campaign ads in the presidential race -- the last one was aired by Ross Perot in 1992 -- none of the answers are readily apparent. The Obama campaign has encouraged parties of supporters to watch the ad, potentially making viewership more difficult to judge.

In 1992, Mr. Perot aired 15 half hours generating an average of 11.6 million viewers, according to Nielsen. A final half hour, airing simultaneously on ABC, NBC and CBS, drew 26 million viewers.

That was a different time, when the major TV networks had a much bigger chunk of the total TV audience. Those half hours were the major advertising tool of the Perot campaign.

This time, Wednesday's Obama half-hour ad is just one small tool of a much more massive campaign. More generally the campaign's ads are getting heavy airing in battleground states, but the campaign has also aired ads on network TV news, entertainment and sports programming.

Unless the half hour ad craters in the Nielsen ratings, trying to accurately assess the impact of the ad alone isn't going to be easy.

Nielsen said that recently CBS has been drawing audiences of 6.3 million viewers, NBC 9.7 million viewers and Fox 6.9 million viewers during that day part.

On Fox on Wednesday, the Obama campaign has the advantage of the ad being a lead in to the World Series.

While ratings for the political conventions and the presidential debates were generally up this year, will that interest apply as well to a 30-minute ad?

Stay tuned. Until then, tell us what you think by answering our poll question.
11 Comments
Subscribe to comments on: The Half-Hour Obama Hour: What Will It Mean?
  By lakonic | CHICAGO, IL October 29, 2008 02:09:41 pm:
Why can't politicians help Americans WHILE it's campaigning, not just promising to do so after being elected? Like, I donno, spend half of its budget on supporting existing or new education new programs, providing food and shelter for homeless kids, or invest in start-up or underfunded renewable energy companies?
  By Mary | Moweaqua, IL October 29, 2008 02:53:38 pm:
Which is worse - a half hour Obama infomercial or a Palin cameo on SNL? If we took the Hollywood out - I wonder what kind of election we might have. I agree with Merrick - put the money to better use... and leave the "advertising" to professionals.
  By JIM | HUDSON, OH October 29, 2008 04:30:44 pm:
Waste of Money!
Why? No one left to sway, he can't help himself significantly in other words... He's not that good on his feet (unlikely to be TiVo'd). His campaign team should have found some better use for the money.
  By stonethro | Windsor, ON October 29, 2008 05:09:35 pm:
Welcome my American friends to the total collapse of your freedom as you usher in a socialist government under the direction of a polished,wealthy
sneak, Obama Hussein Barrack.
Even his name sends shivers down my spine.
Bill Reilly
Windsor Canada
  By Cornelia | Stone Mountain, GA October 29, 2008 05:46:30 pm:
It means an industry that has been complaining because of dwindling budgets - just got a $3.5 Million dollar influx of cash! Besides the television executives and remaining staff just benefitted through this unprecedented amount of cash just shy of 11/4/08, then there are the citizens who may still feel the need to get to know Senator Obama before casting their vote. All in all, it's money well spent in this free for all media environment, and we know it was not paid for by lobbyist or special interest groups. By the way, I understand that if you don't like it - you can watch Nickolodean or Disney. Of course, there's always Blockbuster and NetFlix. However, I'm watching the Senator. From where I sit, he is one of the most refreshing, provocative thinker that I have witnessed in a very long time.
  By Andy | Atlanta, GA October 29, 2008 06:10:30 pm:
I suppose the $3.5 million could have been spent . . . hiring a telemarketing firm to jam the opposing party's Get Out the Vote efforts . . . oh, wait - that was already done in 2002 by the Republican party. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/17/opinion/17mon3.html?th

McCain & Palin are just bitter . . . that they can't afford to do the same.

Andy Cleary | Atlanta
  By mzcreation | Los Angeles, CA October 29, 2008 06:24:59 pm:
I'm sorry, you're concerned that a man who may have a major impact on all of our lives is spending $3.5 million for 30 minutes to tell us why he should be elected President. Meanwhile, Budweiser spends $2.5 million to sell us beer in 30 seconds. Something's wrong with this world.
  By mzcreation | Los Angeles, CA October 29, 2008 06:28:09 pm:


Bill O'Reilly - is that you??
  By vinny | Dallas, TX October 30, 2008 12:20:36 am:
Here's the fact of the matter:

Obama has so much money, he has to find ways to spend it before election day. If you've got the cash, why not?

It's also a little bit back to the future. In the 70s and 80s the 30-minute candidate "film" was a staple of campaigns.

Vinny
  By daryl orris | Minnetonka, MN October 30, 2008 12:57:53 pm:
Dear Ira,

The Half-Hour Obama Hour: What Will It Mean? It means that this is the model to be used in the future for all political campaigns. It was a good time slot, and a good closer.

Moreover, the campaign itself was flawless branding and brand building. The reality is that somehow the press climbed all over Palin stating she is not prepared to be president while Obama with less experience then her is about to be crowned president by the people. This is great promotion and branding.

The final lesson is that local market tactics are no substitute for a strategic campaign and sticking to it, then using spot tactical messages to counter the opponent, not losing sight of the overall strategy.

The half hour was vintage Clinton I feel your pain, and then a cohesive and coherent statement of purpose of how he will 'fix' what he has characterized as broken. So thorough, I even believe McCain is just a Bush retread because of his inability to counter it and not to respond with his true position. Convincing everyone that the Bush administration was broken was strategy number two after convincing everyone that Obama was a credible candidate. Then it was to attack the present administration and tie McCain to it. Footage of McCain boasting about his record tied to Bush TVC are priceless. The final knife in his back: the economy. Big oil, Wall Street, and Big Business must all be Democrats who colluded to destroy McCain. Take about timing. Could it have been designed to make McCain look better? That when in a crisis who do you want as a leader - a trainee or an experienced leader. It looks as though we want the trainee.

Now all that is left is to hold on to your hats and wait and see. Will Obama be a stooge for the Military Industrial Complex and have us fighting in endless wars like the Bush administration did? Will we get new super-weapons to enable us to destroy the entire universe -- or just an elegant mouthpiece for the real Democratic power?

Let's hope Obama doesn't have a hidden chip on his shoulder like the Son of Bush did. And let's hope that his unspoken agenda is too socialistic.

Finally, after viewing the McCain campaign and watching it unravel, I am beginning to agree with the Time's Krugman: Republicans: the party of stupid. Stupidity enabled the Democrats to do the impossible: elect an inexperienced unknown commodity to the top spot. It's an amazing story that will get Obama a spot on Mt. Rushmore and change forever how political campaigns are conducted: money and more money, and New Media for fund-raising.

In the end I wonder had he a Romney or one of the others on the ticket, would it have played out this way? Only a divine miracle or incredible cheating can save him now.
  By lfgbear | CHANDLER, AZ October 30, 2008 04:17:43 pm:
I voted last week. I voted NOT McCain.
Obama is simply unproven. McCain is totally whack.
Perhaps Mr Obama can use the internet to collect enough CHANGE to pay off the enourmous public debt.
Perhaps Mr Obama will have a weekly or maybe even daily Presidential reality TV show, now that he has brodcast his pilot.
This all reminds me of the new MAC ad where PC is putting all his money into advertising instead of fixing the the problems with his product.

B.L.
http://SoIWroteThisBook.com



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