With over 400 million people predicted to have Smart TVs by 2016, there is an impending "appification" of the TV that presents an enormous opportunity for brands, content creators and media companies. But chances are, few reading this blog have considered rethinking their content strategies for Smart TV consumption, not to mention the accompanying monetization models.

In part, that's because much of the skepticism about the value of the technology is justified. It's true, for instance, that many Smart TV components remain underutilized by consumers. The most successful apps have been video apps, such as Netflix. Software development for anything more complicated than basic streaming -- especially gaming -- has been a challenge because of Smart TV's notoriously slow (and quickly out-of-date) hardware. But manufacturers remain committed to the technology, and are taking significant steps to correct its flaws.

The latest report from IHS Screen Digest predicts that Smart TVs will account for 55% of the market by 2015 and by 2016 will account for two-thirds of the total units shipped globally. In addition, relatively inexpensive auxiliary devices like the Google TV box and the Xbox can turn any TV into a Smart TV in less than 15 minutes. An expected updated Apple TV that would run the iTunes ecosystem would accelerate Smart TV adoption. Inevitably, Smart TVs will become a key component of many households' connected-device ecosystem.

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In the mid-90s, the pop band Barenaked Ladies sang out scenarios for their fantasy, "If I had a million dollars." Today, in Silicon Valley and due north in Redmond we have a new version playing out where Yahoo, Facebook and Microsoft are all figuring out what they would spend a billion on.

While the targets -- Tumblr, Waze and Nook -- make for fascinating discussion of fit and valuation on their own, together they show something interesting about the future of these goliaths beyond the personal computer. They're looking well beyond the personal computer, but in different ways.

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The majority of Madison Avenue's ad-tech stack has been built around the dated cookie-based approach. Yet cookies were never built for marketing and advertising; they were conceived to help web masters control session management.

Much of the pressure to reform in our industry has centered around third-party cookies. The use of third-party cookies could be significantly restricted, if not totally disallowed. First-party cookies are still in play and will be allowed, as of this point, which will essentially allow publishers to control site-side experiences, not just advertising.

In a world with third-party cookies banned, first-party cookie owners would have a large advantage, at least in the short to medium term. I assume that in the long term another cookie-like approach will be created to replace third-party cookies.

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As much as we all talked about 2013 finally being the Year of Mobile, I'm convinced that it actually is going to be the Year of Video. Here's why:

Viewing is growing on video, with more time spent on more devices. Too much is made of falling network prime-time ratings. According to our estimates at GroupM, overall video consumption is up year on year by about 3.7%, assisted by viewing of streaming video on PCs, connected TVs and mobile devices. According to the latest comScore, on average, 183 million Americans view 215 videos each month online. Mobile's big boost is also being driven by video, with Cisco forecasting that by 2016, two-thirds of mobile traffic will be viewing video.

Dynamic content is growing audiences. The rules are being re-written on the back of strong original programming investment. Cable network AMC's "Walking Dead' was the second highest rated show on prime-time television, beating top network shows such as FOX's "American Idol" and ABC's "Modern Family" in straight 18-49 ratings. Netflix's "House of Cards" reportedly pulled in 2.7 million viewers in its first 12 days, which is about the same as what premium cable network Showtime's pilot of "Homeland" achieved in live and on-demand viewing when it launched in 2011.

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I am the CEO of a digital agency. I also chair the board of an association of digital agencies. My problem is I don't know how to tell people what I do.

It's not that I don't know what I do. I just don't know how to describe it in terms that people will understand. The problem is that the word "digital" has become obsolete. Every time I hear it or use it I cringe.

What isn't digital these days? TV is digital, you can't even get the old kind anymore, whatever that was. Photography is digital. The old days of film are so gone, but do you see Canon trumpeting their digital cameras? Digital vs. what? So here we are, professional marketers, and we are using a word to describe what we do that has no real meaning anymore.

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The dream of interactive TV has been around for almost two decades. We've imagined a TV that allows us to transition seamlessly from watching a Yankees game to pulling up a music video on demand to ordering an advertiser's product. But iTV as we conceived it remained elusive for the brightest of minds, even for the likes of Steve Jobs.

But today's TV is increasingly a laptop, mobile or tablet experience, unless it arrives on a "proper" TV screen through a broadband-enabled device like an Xbox or Roku. It's not coming through the cable operators that, at one time, were thought to hold the keys to iTV. In fact iTV is already here, all but ready to deliver everything we've been waiting for. We've just been waiting for it on the wrong screen.

Nielsen's March Cross Platform Report recently dove into the deep end of this trend, describing the five million homes in the United States that it classifies as "Zero TV" because they eschew traditional cable or satellite viewing -- often for streaming alternatives. Two-thirds of these "Zero TV" homes consume video content on other devices, and the distribution across age groups of "Zero TV" homes is not as concentrated as you might think. Almost two-thirds are age 44 and under, but a healthy chunk -- more than one-third -- fell into older demographics.

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In this season of upfront presentations, the major broadcast networks are facing their toughest challenges in memory. Will they survive? History tells us yes.

The 2012-13 broadcast season has been, with little question, the most disruptive to the broadcast television industry since the medium was in its infancy over 60 years ago. Cable networks, which have been siphoning off viewers and ad dollars for three decades chiefly with sports, news and children's programs, now are reaching parity with broadcast television for original scripted entertainment shows. And online video programming reached a defining moment, producing more quality original content.

Initially cable networks waited until the summer before scheduling such programs, despite lower viewing levels, because that was when broadcast networks offered minimal competition. In recent years original scripted series have aired on cable during the broadcast season with modest success compared to broadcast shows.

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YouTube finally announced this week that it would allow channels to charge monthly fees to access content on YouTube. Some have predicted that YouTube's subscription model would undercut its ad model in an echo of the infamous paywall problem that has bedeviled online newspapers as they shifted from ad-supported to paid. Others have suggested this shows that YouTube is up against an advertising wall of their own making -- advertisers will only pay so much to advertise against this amateur and semi-pro content. Still others gleefully wait to watch as YouTube learns how hard it is to get people to pay for things online.

In fact, all three of these things are minor asides in YouTube's decision-making, as I see it. Instead of reacting to these and other constraints, YouTube is acting on an imminent opportunity: making a grab for more of everything that matters:

More business model options. TV is both ad supported and subscription supported and that works just fine. It gives people like HBO the creative flexibility to generate content advertisers may not be ready for and it gives companies like Scripps the freedom to promise more home-focused entertainment that home-focused advertisers care about. That flexibility is crucial to the ongoing success of those companies and it will be crucial to YouTube as well. Although in YouTube's, case, I would be surprised if the revenue balance in the 1- to 2-year time-frame exceeded 10% or 15% subscription to advertising.

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Upfront season is becoming increasingly complex amid the addition of a wide array of competing video alternatives, such as tablets and online streaming. As the conversationaround traditional TV continues to change at a rapid pace and the influx of digital media shakes up the industry, the traditional TV upfront and premium Digital NewFronts have blended into one major, cohesive play for advertising spend.

A number of key elements will shape the outcomes of this year's negotiations:

The Multi-Screen Space Leads the Conversation. While we're still hearing a lot of chatter around social TV, the multi-screen space will drive the conversation. Co-viewing behavior is exploding, and the industry will start seeing more advertisers market apps that coincide with TV shows and target consumers across the multiple devices in their hands.

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With Twitter having landed its biggest ad deal yet with Starcom MediaVest Group, it's no longer too early to begin wondering how the platform will make money with Vine, its hugely popular app that allows users to Tweet six-second videos.

Launched with a tailwind of media buzz, Vine skyrocketed to No. 1 on the Apple App Store. It's the subject of numerous "how to" articles (including this one) for brands and users struggling with how to incorporate Vine's functionality into their daily lives. All this in only three months.

Vine is interesting for advertising because it sits at the intersection of three areas of great potential -- video, mobile and advertising. Vine could prove a huge win for Twitter if it can crack the mobile-advertising nut. The massive user base and traffic that Twitter and other social media have built and extended into the mobile sphere are already starting to threaten the early mobile-advertising pioneers.

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I'm getting tired of so many offensive ads showing up online that companies later apologize for, often claiming they neither knew about them nor approved them. I don't believe their apologies are sincere, and I wonder if you do.

I think Hyundai Europe -- and probably PepsiCo's Mountain Dew, Ford India and others that deny or regret ads that have already delivered their marketing messages -- knew full well that its controversial "Pipe Job" video existed.

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You might know how much an impression's worth for your brand. Perhaps you can estimate the value of a click, or social actions such as buzz, likes and shares. But what if you could measure a customer's level of physical activity? What about posture, sleep habits, or even virility?

That data's going to become increasingly available to marketers and advertisers as we head into the age of the cyborg.

Once a hallmark of science fiction, the human enhanced with mechanical superpowers is quickly becoming mainstream with the advent of wearable technology. Among the milestones arising over the past decade was Apple's success with slimming down the iPod and equipping it with enough storage to hold thousands of songs, which turned it into a popular workout accessory. A slew of add-ons sprung up to allow runners to wear the iPod as an armband. Then in May 2006, Nike released Nike+, in collaboration with Apple, a wireless chip embeddable in select shoe models. In a breakthrough melding of fashion and technology, the chip synced with the iPod, and later the iPhone, to track fitness activity and sync music to workouts. In 2012 Nike released the FuelBand, transitioning its technology from a chip hidden inside a shoe to a bracelet that became its own fashion statement.

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Twenty-five years ago, George Stalk of the Boston Consulting Group introduced the concept of "time-based competition," calling attention to the success of companies that had made timely responsiveness to consumers a major priority. "Give customers what they want when they want it," was the mantra.

A quarter century later, it's still a relevant concept, and, in a world where viewers have more options and the competition for engagement is the fiercest it's ever been, advertisers can adapt it to great advantage. Multi-tasking is through the roof, in a given day, Nielsen estimates, 40% of all smartphone and tablet owners use these devices while watching traditional TV. One in three households now owns at least one TV set connected to the Internet. Thanks to DVRs, Nielsen estimates, nearly 65 million adults aged 18-49 -- and 51 million TV households -- can record TV programs and watch them on their own schedule.

The brands that respect the value of the viewer's time -- and use it to their advantage -- will succeed. They will be partnering with publishers and distributors to reimagine the relationship between the content, the viewer, the device and the environment, to deliver creative that will be effective in each situation and platform.

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Google Creative Lab is the modern best-case scenario of a brand development think tank. The concept is simple: put a bunch of smart people together and separate them from the daily trappings of focusing on generating revenue, selling product or any sort of administrative challenges. Their uncluttered minds can be free to explore non-traditional concepts and discover new ways to think and execute creatively.

Usually, only the best and brightest are selected for the creative think tank, and some people take most of their careers to get there. If your company can afford it -- and if you can get the gig -- being a part of a think tank is great work. Being able to step outside the daily demands of your business can be a wonderful thing -- most recently demonstrated by Google Creative Lab Chief Creative Officer Robert Wong, who gave a rare look inside his operation at Ad Age's Digital Conference this week.

In the course of his presentation, Mr. Wong offered plenty of tidbits that only apply to companies with unlimited budgets and time on their hands. My favorite was the artful execution of calling up Ridley Scott to help vet a creative idea; some of us might have a little trouble getting Ridley on the phone right away.

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Negotiations between the advertisers and the SAG-AFTRA actors' guild recently culminated in a tentative deal for a new contract governing commercials -- including their use in new media.

Here's how to figure out whether it applies to your viral video.

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In the several weeks since returning to Federated Media Publishing as CEO, I've spoken to scores of brand marketers and publishers, as well as to many of the technology companies that make it their business to serve the media ecosystem (all have a tenuous grasp on some small parcel of real estate in Luma Partners' increasingly crowded "Lumascape").

Something troubling has jumped out at me. There's an extraordinary asymmetry of information among these three important players in our industry, and a disturbing sense of distrust. Brand marketers don't believe that ad-tech companies view brands as true partners. Ad-tech companies think brand marketers are paying attention to the wrong things. And publishers, with a few important exceptions, feel taken advantage of by everyone.

Here's a representative sample of things I've heard:

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While many in digital media continue to explain what ad tech is and does, it's time for the conversation to evolve beyond this to the real benefits that enterprise technology can bring to a marketer's strategy. Big data and programmatic advertising have become embedded in the execution of mainstream advertisers and technology. We're on the CMO's radar screen, so let's make sure that the education and conversation evolve consistently with the rapid innovation in the space.

This transformation has never been more critical. Technology that drives marketing is transforming advertising as we know it. Forecaster IDC estimates that worldwide RTB-based spending (real-time bidding) will rise to $13.9 billion and the big-data market will grow to $23.8 billion in 2016.

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March Madness is one of the biggest, best-marketed and most lucrative sporting events of the year. Emotions run high as Cinderella teams emerge, giants fall and hard-fought games come down to one nail-biting, last-minute shot. All this attention comes with a hefty price tag for advertisers: Kantar Media reports that marketers will spend nearly $1.5 million for a 30-second spot during the championship tonight.

That's significantly less than the $3.8 million they paid for a 30-second ad during the Super Bowl. But, unlike the Super Bowl, where attention is concentrated in a three- to four-hour window on a Sunday evening, March Madness commands attention from millions of passionate and dedicated viewers for weeks.

Much as with the Olympics and the World Cup, marketers struggle to take advantage of the extended time frame in one of the most powerful branding mediums available to them: online video. The challenge for many marketers is that they're coming off a massive Super Bowl video investment, which creates a second-quarter online video lull. But this also presents an opportunity for an intrepid marketer to fill the vacuum.

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Pretend you're reading this at home, and your sweet tooth has taken control of your brain. In the cupboard, you've got raw ingredients for a caramel chocolate fudge cake recipe that looks amazing, though you've never tried it. There's also an excellent, expensive cupcake shop around the corner. Here's your dilemma: You can face the delay and uncertainty of your own baking, or you can have your cake right now -- but it comes only in vanilla. What do you do?

Many advertisers are facing essentially the same question, as branded content surges as an alternative to digital ads. Do they make their own content, or buy it from somebody else? Creativity, control, speed, quality and cost -- all are at stake. Which one to choose?

GE makes its own media for brand properties like Ecomagination.com, its informational site about technology and environment. Cadillac, on the other hand, elects to sponsor a travel site, Gallivant, for a month at a time. Virgin Mobile's model is to create innumerable lists that it posts on BuzzFeed.

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The technology that turns digital designs into tangible products -- 3D printing -- is beginning to have an impact on manufacturing, the supply chain, retail and e-commerce across a host of industries. The breadth of creative possibilities can be daunting, as new products become cheaper to bring to market, consumers get to design more of their own custom products, and some brick-and-mortar stores offer walk-in customers tools to create precisely the product they want.

As occurred with social media around 2008, brands know they need to engage with 3D printing, but many aren't sure how or why.Here are some answers to those questions.

First, consider cost. Traditionally, bringing a product to market can take months and thousands of dollars. A company conducts extensive research to define a market need, followed by designing, tooling, focus-group testing, and ultimately mass manufacturing and distribution. To achieve economies of scale, a minimum of 10,000 products is made, though usually runs surpass 100,000 or a million. This requires an inventory, which can also be costly.

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I was an early proponent of QR Codes, but now I have to admit that they are history. Invisible ink and augmented-reality apps are replacing the clunky codes. The new technology is superior in that you don't have to take a picture of the code, which then records your contact information and sends you to a website, video or document, or sends you a text message giving a web address. With the new apps, you just run your smartphone over the content and get the enhanced features immediately.

Here's a sampling of the new technologies that will surely supplant QR Codes, permanently.

As Springwise reports, the Japanese newspaper Tokyo Shimbu has launched the AR News app, which enables kids to scan specially marked articles with smartphones to reveal more kid-friendly versions of the stories.

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Even the best technology won't create value if it can't get to market.

That simple, straightforward lesson from the last tech bust ought to be guiding the new generation of startups. But as technology companies rush to fill every niche in the marketing industry, the lack of go-to-market savvy is stunning. In fact, four trends suggest that a bust is just around the corner. (Warning: This list will sound vaguely familiar to anyone who lived through the bust circa 2000.)

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When social media exploded, most CMOs were left scrambling to find a way to incorporate these new, emerging platforms into their marketing plans. This ushered in a new era of "social marketing," which has blurred the line between branded advertising and public relations. While CMOs hurried to move past their anxieties, leading CEOs understood the value of this platform and placed even more pressure on their marketing chief to quickly embrace this new world order.

Today, the digital environment has become even more complex and the advertising technology sector is particularly treacherous. Modern marketers are being forced to adapt, evolve and react to a "performance marketing" world driven by new technology that is pushing them out of their comfort zones into a new reality. The core competencies of the marketing world have never been more open to doubt than they are today.

In recent conversations with dozens of top marketers, it is clear to me that the game of digital media and advertising is changing too fast for most. I am regularly asked for advice on the world of performance marketing and marketers have only just begun to realize that this industry is not going away. Being competent in performance marketing is an absolute requirement for CMO success. And as hundreds of ad-tech companies clamor for attention in this space, marketers are not set up to go through the vigorous testing loop needed to understand which technology or technologies can help their business grow at a faster clip.

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Continue reading at AdAge.com

In the not-too-distant future, marketers finally will be able to target nearly anyone they want, any time they want, anywhere they want. Though the last 20 years held out the promise of doing this, with joined cookies, e-mail addresses and optimized banner copy, the technology fell short. Today, with social platforms like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, millions of people are voluntarily (and happily) giving up millions of pieces of personal data in the form of content they create. Each post, tweet, like and pin tells the platform exactly what a consumer is thinking and what content engages him or her.

As the targeting capability improves, the question for brands will change from "How many fans or followers do you have?" to "Whom do you want to reach?" And this leads to two strategic questions: What do you want to say? And how do you sustain your messages to different segments across platforms and around the world?

If this sounds like a daunting task, it should. This kind of reach and data have never been available before. While TV has been the best option, it's always been limited by geography and language. Social platforms are the first manifestations of true global reach -- and they're only getting bigger as new members join with mobile devices.

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With the upfront looming, and increasing pressure to be innovative, many advertisers and agencies today are in a headlong race to shift and diversify their TV ad budgets, taking greater advantage of multiplatform-platform "video." And why not? TV advertising is expensive and campaign reach is declining thanks to audience fragmentation.

However noble and well-intentioned, however, the expectations of many of these advertisers and agencies are unrealistic, particularly those calling for 10% to 20% budget shifts out of TV into digital video. That's because, you see, 97% of all video viewing in the U.S. still occurs on TV. Yes. Whether the data is from Nielsen, Pew or eMarketer, all agree that only a small fraction of video viewing in the U.S. today occurs on devices other than the TV.

Clients can say that they want to spend 10% to 20% of their "video" budgets on platforms other than TV -- but saying it doesn't make it so, or even possible, particularly if audience reach matters and you want to demonstrate any sense of cost-effectiveness. Here is why:

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About a year ago, I was walking between meetings on Capitol Hill in Washington, and a reporter called me. With breathless worry, he asked, "Aren't you worried about the increased militancy of the anti-advertising advocates?"

I had to laugh. "The job of the advocates," I replied, "is to be militant. It's not like one day they are going to declare, 'Good job guys, we're off to right some other wrong.'"

This debate typically is helpful since it pushes the outlines of the debate about Internet tracking. It keeps the industry leaders on our toes, ultimately to the benefit of consumers.

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Continue reading at AdAge.com

There should be no question as to the most influential personality at South by Southwest (SXSW) Interactive this year. There's only one entity that had people lining up for three hours just to take photos with her, hold her, and perhaps rub her sweet little head. Grumpy Cat, the alias for a Snowshoe Siamese named Tardar Sauce that became an internet meme thanks to Reddit, has captivated the masses tracking and attending this festival.

Clearly this cat is on to something. Is Grumpy Cat's popularity at SXSW just another indicator of the internet's obsession with cats? No, this is something much, much bigger than a tiny, adorable, peevish cat. Here's the Grumpy Cat guide to SXSW:

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