Poll Dancing: MediaVest Says It's Obama by 11 P.M.

This Year, Everyone (and His Mother) Has a Poll

By Published on .

As this never-ending presidential election hopefully comes to an end sometime later tonight, it might be the perfect time to close the book on some of the words and catchphrases that have been relentlessly beaten into heads over the past few months as they became a constant in the media's unremitting coverage of the campaign.

Most people would probably be borderline ecstatic if they didn't hear the words "Joe the Plumber," "maverick," "my friends," "change" and "hope" ever again -- or at least until after the holidays.

But the one word that really needs to take a hiatus is "poll." Not only does every network covering the election report on their own polls predicting the outcome of the election and swing states every night, but companies have done polls on everything from the impact negative campaign ads have on voters to what your political party affiliation says about you, from what brands voters align the candidates with to "polls of polls."

MediaVest's Poll of Polls provides a timeline of when each state will likely be called and when the overall election will be called tonight. The poll, which aggregates state-level polling from over 200 individual polls conducted by polling, news and political organizations, predicts that the election will officially be called for Barack Obama at 11 p.m. EST. "Mr. Obama officially achieves [270 electoral votes] by 11 p.m.," the poll reads. It also forecasts that unofficial calls for Mr. Obama will begin around 10 p.m. The "Poll of Polls" also found that wins in major swing states like Ohio, Florida and Missouri "are immaterial this year" because of shifting patterns in other states.

Another media agency, Havas' MPG, earlier used its Resonance program to also predict a victory for Mr. Obama and that "Obama's lead will widen in the closing days of the 2008 presidential campaign" (how did that one pan out?). The agency's polling of 1,212 "likely voters" revealed that Mr. Obama is expected to lead with 57% of the popular vote vs. 43% for McCain "in the states that will determine the outcome of the election."

And while Aegis' Carat admits it doesn't know who will come out victorious tonight, it believes that its recent analysis linking the impact political party affiliation has on behavioral trends shows that people voting for Mr. McCain will be happier when voting and those voting for Mr. Obama will look more stylish when they hit the polls.

Which should be useful knowledge for CMOs and media buyers everywhere.
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