But three of our last four presidential elections have been
decided at the margin. In 2000 and 2004, the execution of the
nominees' campaigns had real impact on the outcome. In 2012, we'd
venture to suggest that execution -- including TV advertising --
was almost everything, with an added boost from a hurricane and
maybe a few other factors.
TV advertising is the single biggest undertaking of any
campaign: about 75% of everything a candidate raises goes to
support it, and about two-thirds of all ad dollars go to local
broadcast TV. For faceless outside groups that exist solely for the
purpose of advertising, the proportion of funds raised that is
spent on TV is surely higher.
Because the impact of the advertising is at the margins, the
path to understanding it leads not through the tonnage but through
the targeting and messaging. As anticipated, Republicans did indeed
outspend Democrats on broadcast TV in the general election contest
by CMAG's preliminary estimate of $479 million to $396 million, but
Obama's campaign either held its own or retained the edge in many
aspects of the air war. Among them:
Tone
No one outside the Romney campaign could have guessed they would
decline to develop any real positive message track about the
nominee in their general-election advertising. According to our
early findings, 89% of Romney's general election ad occurrences had
a negative tone; 92% of all GOP group general election ad
occurrences had a negative tone.
Smarter analysts than us called this a serious risk incurred on
behalf of a nominee about whom the country knew little and whom
Democrats raced to define with an early and intense negative ad
onslaught throughout the summer. Romney's suddenly improved poll
standing after the first debate suggests that if his campaign had
moved to round out his profile earlier, the impact of these attacks
may have been blunted, possibly to an outcome-altering effect.
Yet even with scarcely any positive messaging, Romney nearly
won. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign maintained only slightly more
positive messaging during its seven-month assault on Romney. CMAG
found 81% of Obama's ads had a negative tone, whereas 98% of all
Democratic group ad occurrences—Priorities USA Action being
responsible for most of them—were negative. The prevailing
negativity begs the question of whether the positive presidential
spot is becoming a lost art, at least in close elections.
Message-control
For Obama, controlling the vast majority of TV advertising on
his side meant controlling the content of a greater proportion of
the ads and pushing a more cohesive message. Obama's campaign
produced 142 of the 215 unique ads aired by Democrats in the
presidential race; Romney's campaign produced 93 of the 259 unique
ads aired by Republicans.
Thirty-seven different Republican outside groups advertised in
the 2012 presidential race compared with 21 Democratic outside
groups. During the final weeklong push toward Election Day, 22
different Republican sponsors had a diffuse array of ads on the
air, compared with 13 Democratic sponsors.
And while the national party committees typically act as arms of
their nominees' campaigns when it comes to ad messaging, they
played diminished roles in 2012. The DNC coordinated a limited sum
of advertising with Obama's campaign but did not do any
independent-expenditure advertising on his behalf. The RNC engaged
in both coordinated and independent-expenditure advertising, but
its share of the ad pie was hugely overshadowed by the
higher-spending Republican outside groups.
While their nominees took opposing approaches, with Obama's
campaign internalizing the traditional party role in advertising
and Romney's campaign choosing to outsource, parallel coups
occurred. The parties were less relevant in the air war.
Bargain buying
The Obama campaign was frank about expecting to be outspent in
the fall. However, as the incumbent, and for lack of a primary
challenger, it also had the luxury of time to plan for being
outspent. That plan included 1) advertising heavily early in the
race in order to define Romney before he defined himself, before
the airwaves became saturated in the fall, and before ad rates
really soared; and 2) laying down orders early. Not all of their
early orders cleared at the original prices, but many did.
Once Labor Day passed and stations were required to charge
candidates lower rates to advertise, Obama's dollars stretched
further compared not only with the Republican outside groups that
paid premium rates, but also -- somewhat surprisingly -- to the
Romney campaign, which chose to retain more flexibility in what
they bought and more certainty in what they paid in exchange for
skipping opportunities to pay less.
Demographics vs. Economics
The competing forces of the 2012 presidential race were an
economy that favored Romney vs. demographics that favored Obama.
The hallmark of Romney's TV ad campaign was its emphasis on
economic themes; its efforts were lighter on targeting. Obama's
campaign was thin on policy but historic for the sophistication of
its targeting through both message and placement.
Women, Latinos, young people, and blue-collar families in the
auto industry were among its targets: Obama's campaign created
unique spots to disqualify Romney with these audiences and bought
national network (including Summer Olympics), national cable, local
spot and local cable airtime accordingly. A steady stream of ads
featured custom-tailored messages such as women criticizing Romney
on abortion and Latinos (including some celebrities) criticizing
Romney in Spanish. In all, Obama's campaign produced nine unique
ads focusing on abortion and 38 unique ads in Spanish compared to
the Romney campaign's one and 18.
Meanwhile, Romney mostly sought to reach women through ads
focusing on jobs and the potential impact of the nation's debts.
Many of his ads in Spanish were dubs of his English-language spots.
His ad campaign zeroed in on the halting economic recovery, but
relied on less modern ad tactics for execution. They depended on
local spot for delivery. They "released" a number of ads which
never aired or aired mainly in the Washington, D.C., market where
the political elite would see them. Their version of targeted ads
included a series tailored to battleground states through text and
images of skylines.
Obama's campaign ultimately won the air war by making the very
most of its resources and deploying all the weapons in the
advertising arsenal: timing, tiered rates and rates reserved for
candidates, programming platforms, and the ad content itself. They
short-circuited the party advertising apparatus to bring more ad
dollars under their direct control; leveraged advances in local
cable ad sales to balance out their cable advertising and played
local and national against each other to get better rates; and for
content, relied heavily on attacks designed for maximum impact on
their desired targets.
It's certainly true that Obama had significant resources and had
he been outspent by a wider margin, we might well be writing today
about how the outside groups helped win the air war for
President-elect Romney. But as much money as was ultimately spent
in 2012, quality and quality control ultimately mattered more.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Elizabeth Wilner is VP of
Kantar
Media's CMAG, which tracks and analyzes broadcast TV
advertising content, placement and spend.