I think we're launching a future platform," said AOL CEO Tim
Armstrong. "It's truly the beginning of what these systems are
going to look like."
The future Mr. Armstrong speaks of will be likely be driven by
mobile spending, according to the latest forecasts. U.S. mobile ad
spending, according to eMarketer, will go from $19.1 billion last
year to $28.7 billion this year to $40.5 billion next year. In
2016, that $40.5 billion mobile spend number will far outpace
desktop, which eMarketer predicts will hit $26.5 billion.
AOL does not break out its mobile ad revenue, so it's difficult
to tell how it's performing compared to the market. But it's up
against steep competition from platforms such as Facebook and
Google, which can
definitively tie user identity across devices thanks to login data.
That data is pivotal in mobile advertising, given the
ineffectiveness of the cookie in mobile environments. And, as
people spend more time on mobile, so-called "cross-screen
advertising" will be impossible without a close to perfect solution
for effective mobile targeting.
AOL does plan to use its own login data, from products such as
AOL Mail and the Huffington Post, to tie user identity together in
a similar way to other big platforms. After adding in some other
data sources, AOL can match user identity across devices 93% of the
time, according to comScore.
"Mobile is absolutely a cornerstone of the system we have, we
built and what we're launching," Mr. Armstrong said.
The company hopes this ability to tie user identity across
devices will allow its platform to generate media spend
recommendations its clients will trust. The One platform gathers
information from media buys across various channels -- display,
email, TV and more -- and, based on return on investment targets
its clients input, spits out how they should adjust their spend to
hit their targets.
Lauren Fisher, an analyst at eMarketer, said the new platform is
strong and is especially useful to those marketers looking to apply
more data in their TV buys. "I think this is a smart play by AOL,"
she said.
At the end of the day, One's promise will be fulfilled only if
it continues to excel in cross platform identity management and if
its spend recommendations are effective. The risk AOL is taking is
one it must if it's going to thrive when revenue from the
membership (read: dial up) segment of its business dries up.
AOL is well aware of the challenge ahead. In the notes section
of the presentation it shared with Ad Age yesterday, the first
slide contained this prompt: "AOL has evolved from the AOL dial up
program our parents and grandparents used to a content and
programmatic leader."
The fulfillment of that vision will rest on the performance of
the platform released today.