For squeezed publishers, a bit of good and bad news: CPMs will rise more than 75% over the next five years. But overall growth of the online display advertising market will grow more slowly than expected, according to an estimate from Forrester.
Average CPMs -- the rate advertisers pay for 1,000 impressions -- will rise 76% to $4.68 by 2017 from $2.66 in 2012, according to a survey of 232 marketers conducted by the research firm. Forrester includes text advertising (which typically has a low CPM) in its display number, along with traditional banners, rich media and video.That's the good news. The bad news is that this CPM increase will be largely driven by adoption of the "viewable impression" standard, where advertisers pay only for for ads that are visible on the screen. For a lot of publishers this will mean fewer impressions, which could offset some of the CPM gains. Indeed Forrester's estimate assumes a 17% compound annual growth rate in overall online ad revenue, down from the 20% it predicted last year.
"We're definitely taking the stance that the viewable impression standard is going to happen," said Joanna O'Connell, Forrester analyst and co-author of the report.
RTB brings lift
Rates for digital advertising bought and sold through exchanges will grow a bit faster, more than doubling to $6.64 in 2017 from $3.17 today, as more marketers embrace the efficiency of real-time bidding as they become more educated about the space, creating new demand in the process.