"This is the first year we saw growth due to interactive tools
really gaining legitimacy in the mix," said Forrester analyst Shar
VanBoskirk, noting that search, display and email have become
well-established lines in marketers' budgets.
The report, "U.S. Interactive Marketing Forecast, 2011 to 2016,"
projects the overall compound annual growth rate of interactive
marketing spending at 17%, but the fastest-growing category is
mobile at 38%, set to reach $8.2 billion in 2016. It attributes the
surge to a push toward creating more targeted, dynamic mobile ads
instead of so much repurposing of online ads; the rise of mobile
commerce; and experimentation with new ad formats for tablets.
Search marketing will continue to be the biggest piece of the
interactive spending pie -- rising from $18.8 billion to $33.3
billion between 2011 and 2016 -- but will actually lose share of
all interactive spending in the same period, falling from 55% to
44%. Ms. VanBoskirk said the rise of biddable display media, the
growth of mobile and investment in social networks and alternative
search networks such as Facebook, YouTube and ratings and reviews
sites such as Yelp will be factors in the drop-off of search's
interactive market share.
Investment in display advertising will rise from $10.9 billion
in 2011 to $27.6 billion in 2016, driven by greater than 20%
compound annual growth rates in rich media, text listings and
online video. The rise of biddable display media and improved
online ad management tools are cited as key factors.
Email marketing is projected to have a growth rate of 10%,
bringing it to $2.5 billion in 2016, but the total spending is kept
down because of its low cost of reach 1,000 consumers, or CPM. And
widespread adoption of social media will continue, reflected in a
projected 26% growth rate, but total spending will reach only $5
billion in 2016 as it's also an inexpensive tool. (The report notes
that listening platforms cost $5,000 to $10,000 per month, but a
paid search budget can run up to $500,000 to $3 million per
month.)
The report also predicts the rise of subsidized hardware from
media giants such as Google and Yahoo, which would look to embed
ads into the displays of smartphones, tablets and e-readers in
return, creating the possibility of enhanced user targeting for
advertisers. It also foresees the onset of daily deals fatigue.
"That will create consolidation and thin out the number of daily
deal offers that are available," Ms. VanBoskirk said.
