While the school year is still weeks away for many students, marketers have been planning their back-to-school strategies for months.

Chains including American Eagle and Target are debuting work as they try to capture a piece of the spending pie during the season, the second-biggest time of the year for retailers behind the winter holiday period. In a year marked by economic uncertainty, brands are scrambling to find the right mix of product, price and promotion to spur consumer spending.

Their plans come amid even more potential upheaval—before last week, UPS workers were threatening to strike, a move that would have severe consequences for retailers’ e-commerce businesses. Though a tentative deal between UPS and the Teamsters union was reached on July 25, the last-minute negotiations added more pressure to an already highly pressured selling season.

Below, Ad Age breaks down what to expect this back-to-school season and how it might affect the crucial holiday period.

How much are consumers expected to spend?

Unsurprisingly, predictions are conflicting. The National Retail Federation, which has been conducting its own back-to-school survey for 20 years, anticipates a record back-to-school shopping season, with spending reaching $41.5 billion, up 12% from $36.9 billion last year and $4 billion more than the previous high of 2021’s $37.1 billion. The NRF said back-to-college spending will be $94 billion in 2023, up $20 billion from last year, and another record.

Yet Deloitte, which has been running a back-to-school survey for 16 years, predicts a less rosy season. Citing inflation, the consulting firm said those parents it surveyed plan to spend $597 per child this year, a 10% drop from 2022. In addition, 68% of parents said they will spend the same or less this year compared with last year.

How is the economy playing a role?

Prices are undoubtedly higher, which is contributing to the higher levels of spending on essentials such as supplies, apparel and accessories like backpacks. These increased costs have consumers scrambling for deals and marketers doling out promotions.

“People are noticing higher prices, but what has changed is how they are dealing with it,” said Katherine Cullen, VP of industry and consumer insights at NRF, in a recent webinar. She said that many consumers are shopping for deals and looking for more value. “They are possibly even a little less brand and store loyal than they used to be because they want to find the best price for the item they’re looking for,” she added.

A recent report from Morning Consult, a decision intelligence company, found that parents were also shopping earlier this year as a way to find better deals. For example, 42% of parents shopping Amazon’s Prime Day event earlier this month took advantage of back-to-school discounts. Morning Consult also found that consumers are “twice as likely” to shop secondhand for school supplies this year.

How are brands marketing their wares?

Already, several retailers have rolled out campaigns as they hope to catch the coveted eyes of Gen Z shoppers. Earlier this month, JanSport, the backpack brand, debuted a digital-first campaign featuring stories from influencers such as Emma Rogue and Eunice Chang, along with a series of videos shot on iPhones by real customers. Those user-generated clips are on media such as TikTok, Meta, YouTube and Pinterest.

Delivery service DoorDash played into the anxiety parents can feel about buying school supplies with a clever ad from the Martin Agency and Superette, the brand’s in-house agency. The 45-second video encourages consumers to use DoorDash to order supplies for school and lunch and receive them in an hour or less. “Don’t go back to back to school,” text read.

American Eagle, which is known for its Gen Z-centric marketing, debuted a product collaboration designed by young influencers Maddie and Kenzie Ziegler. The AE + Maddie & Kenzie collection, priced from $17.95 to $149.95, includes ’90s-era silhouettes as inspiration and will be promoted on the Zieglers’ social channels such as TikTok and Instagram.

What about discounting?

With so many consumers seeking value, retailers have been flooding email inboxes with promises of deals and discounts. Last week, the likes of Pottery Barn, Reebok and Nike all sent back-to-school promotional emails advertising discounts of 40%, 35% and 25% off.

“We’re back to a really promotional environment,” said Gabriella Santaniello, founder and CEO of independent retail research firm A Line Partners, noting that in previous recent years, consumers having more disposable income and supply chain issues enabled retailers to “charge more and get away with it.”

Now, retailers are returning to 2019 levels of discounting, Santaniello noted. However, since price points are higher now than they were four years ago, a 40% discount does not represent the same pricing as it once did. Some marketers, such as Hollister, are offering denim jeans starting at $25. Yet that price can’t beat the 25-cent starting price point Target touted in an email hyping some back-to-school items.

“It’s going to be everybody’s on a budget and it’s going to be selective spending,” Santaniello said.

What are the hot trends and which brands are benefitting?

If retailers have yet to roll out their campaigns, they might be missing out already. In the week ended July 25, shopper searches for “back to school” were up 21% on the LTK app, a shopping platform with creators, a spokeswoman reported. LTK found that Gen Z’s top shopping categories for the season include clothing, shoes, accessories, beauty and personal care items and food and beverage products. Hot products from the last year that Gen Z students might still gravitate toward this fall include Lululemon’s belt bag, Steve Madden loafer mules and the Stanley “Quencher” water bottle, LTK said.

The NRF noted that electronics are again a top shopping item. “We see again an increase in demand for electronics,” said Cullen, who theorized that items such as laptops, smartphones, headphones and speakers became more integrated into how students learn and do homework as a result of the pandemic.

Two of this season’s hottest kicks are expected to come from Adidas and New Balance. Santaniello said that Adidas’ Samba sneaker and New Balance’s 574, two vintage-style shoes, are popular this year.

“Retailers cannot keep them in stock,” she said.

What can back-to-school tell us about how the holiday season will go?

The fall selling season typically offers an indication of what to expect for the holidays. If consumers do indeed spend more for back-to-school, they may be willing to spend more for holiday gifts as well, despite the continuing toll of inflation.

Retailers, which have already placed their inventory orders and made marketing plans for winter, will be paying attention to the timing of consumer buying as well. Shoppers buying supplies and fall outfits early this summer may buy earlier—in October or early November versus the official post-Thanksgiving surge—as they seek out more value. Brands should also note how products, like must-have shoes, electronics and water bottles, are selling now as they become potential gift items in December.

“Back to school remains a very important indicator [of Christmas],” said Inna Kuznetsova, CEO of ToolsGroup, a supply chain planning and optimization firm.