News Corp. CEO Chase
Carey warned at the National Association of Broadcasters' annual
trade show that if Aereo prevails he would consider turning Fox
into a subscription service. Aereo transmits broadcast signals to
subscribers without a cable subscription by pulling signals out of
the air with individual, dime-sized remote antennas.
"We believe that Aereo is pirating our broadcast signal," News
Corp. said in a statement following Mr. Carey's remarks. "That
said, we won't just sit idle and allow our content to be actively
stolen. It is clear that the broadcast business needs a dual
revenue stream from both ad and subscription to be viable. We
simply cannot provide the type of quality sports, news and
entertainment content that we do from an ad supported only business
model. We have no choice but to develop business solutions that
ensure we continue to remain in the driver's seat of our own
destiny."
This isn't a new idea: in 2009, in the midst of the recession, a
frequent topic of conversation in media circles was the idea of
turning NBC into a cable network, according to Bernstein Research
analyst Todd Juenger. Then the economy began to turn and CBS began
to succeed in getting cable and satellite providers to pay it for
the right to its signal, the same way they pay for cable channels,
and the noise quieted down.
But if Aereo is found to be legal, it could make financial sense
for broadcasters to consider leaving the broadcast airwaves.
"I don't think this is about Aereo as a standalone service," Mr.
Bank said. "It's about what this would mean for retransmission
fees." If Aereo can find a way around paying retransmission fees,
it would harm the broadcast networks' negotiations with cable and
satellite operators. Dish Network and
AT&T have talked
with Aereo about potentially carrying its service or signals, The
Wall Street Journal reported last week.
"[Aereo is disappointed] to hear that Fox believes that
consumers should not be permitted to use an antenna to access
free-to-air broadcast television," said Virginia Lam, a spokeswoman
for Aereo, in a statement today. "Over 50 million Americans today
access television via an antenna. When broadcasters asked Congress
for a free license to digitally broadcast on the public's airwaves,
they did so with the promise that they would broadcast in the
public interest and convenience, and that they would remain
free-to-air. Having a television antenna is every American's
right."
But it wouldn't be easy process for Fox to turn into a cable
network. For one, there are affiliates to think about. News Corp.
said if it goes this route it will work in collaboration with both
content partner and affiliates, which could mean waiting until
contracts with affiliates expire or compensating them for losing
the signal, Mr. Bank said.
This all could just be Mr. Carey's way of negotiating with the
federal government, Mr. Bank said. "He is saying, if you want to
keep localism, you have to protect the industry to a certain
level," he said. "This is brilliant posturing and not
unreasonable."
NFL Sunday Football alone and its dependence on localized
distribution via affiliates could also be enough to curtail this,
Mr. Juenger wrote in a research note earlier in the year.
"While advertisers may profess not to care very much about those
10% of households who receive their TV via antenna, politicians
do," Mr. Juenger wrote. "Not to mention the public policy benefits
of having multiple, independent local news sources. And universal
access to a TV signal was once seen as a vital cornerstone of
national security."
There's also branding to think about. Local news teams and the
community-oriented face the broadcast station brings to the
network, often translates into sustained ratings dominance of those
networks, Mr. Juenger said. "Lose that presence, and soon all those
broadcast networks really do become just another channel on the
dial."
Ultimately, it may not come down to this. While Aereo had
another win in court last week, with the 2nd Circuit Court of
Appeals refusing to block the service, Mr. Bank said it's unlikely
this will be the outcome in all jurisdictions.