"The likely outcome will be that the Japanese will agree [implicitly] to give Motorola 20% to 30% market share," said Herschel Shosteck, who follows international cellular phone economics from Silver Spring, Md. "Then Motorola will keep quiet for two or three years until it wants to renegotiate again."
Mr. Shosteck, who predicted a settlement within 30 days, said Motorola will win share because it can sell phones more cheaply than Japanese companies tied to an antiquated distribution system.
"Japanese companies will find it difficult to set up new and untried distribution channels. Motorola will open up new distribution channels and sell at much lower prices. The consumers will benefit," Mr. Shosteck said. "There may be lingering effects [of the dispute], but the pocketbook almost always overcomes that."
"Motorola is not an innocent victim here," said Robert E. Cole, a Japan specialist and professor of business administration and sociology at the University of California at Berkeley. "It has been at the forefront of trying to open the Japanese market for more than a decade. They have learned to use the American government as their advocate."
Cellular phones symbolize a new Clinton administration trade strategy.
"It was picked for convenience and because it had a strong case," Mr. Cole said. "Both sides have painted themselves in a corner; both would like to extricate themselves with some face-saving solution."
Some predicted Motorola might face a nationalistic backlash from Japanese consumers because of the heated rhetoric of recent days.
"They don't have much share now, so there can't be a backlash," said Michael Gumport, a stock analyst who follows Motorola for Smith Barney Shearson, New York.