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Forget the second-half recovery. While there is still debate about specific media projections, analysts and industry observers alike have trimmed their total U.S. expectations as the first and second quarter were worse than expected. In the best-case scenario, ad spending will barely keep up with inflation.

Forecasts for 2001 full-year U.S. ad spending:

1. UBS projects -2.0% for network TV, -10.0% for spot TV and +10.0% for cable TV.

2. CMR did not release media breakout in its forecast.

Sources: Robert J. Coen, Universal McCann; Adam Smith, Zenith Media; Lauren Rich Fine, Merrill Lynch & Co.; Kevin Sullivan, Lehman Brothers; Christopher Dixon, UBS Warburg; Taylor Nelson Sofres' CMR .

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