WARC predicts a $50 billion drop in ad spend, and the IAB hits back at Trump: Friday Wake-Up Call
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Global ad budgets are set to drop by $50 billion this year, according to a forecast from WARC. But unlike 2009, this is an election year, so political ad spending will buoy the industry enough to avoid the depths of the Great Recession, WARC says.
“The projection, which is based on data from 96 global markets, shows declines across the board, with traditional media taking the biggest hit,” writes Ad Age’s E.J. Schultz. “Spending on cinema ads will fall 31.6 percent, followed by out-of-home (21.7 percent); magazines (21.5 percent); newspapers (19.5 percent); radio (16.2 percent); and TV (13.8 percent).” That should result in an 8.1 percent contraction in global ad spending—terrible news, but far short of the 12.7 percent drop in 2009.
The news comes as the Interactive Advertising Bureau announced that Q1 2020 saw the slowest year-over-year growth in U.S. digital ad revenue since 2010.
President Trump may be tweeting himself in the foot. Angered by the platform’s new fact-checking tags on some of his tweets, on Thursday he signed an executive order rescinding some liability protections for digital publishers laid out in Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. Legal experts say the order is likely either unconstitutional or unenforceable.
U.S. job losses hit a grim milestone yesterday, topping 40 million since the beginning of the pandemic as another 2.1 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. It’s hard to know how many of the new filings are from people caught in rolling waves of layoffs and which are just newly cleared backlog from state systems that have been overwhelmed for months.
This same week also marked 100,000 U.S. deaths from the coronavirus. Both sets of figures are likely drastic undercounts of the true damage to lives and livelihoods. And women and people of color have suffered disproportionately from both job losses and premature deaths. It should be a sobering reminder that recovery of all kinds comes much more slowly for many people.
ADCOLOR, the largest diversity-focused event in the ad industry, will be held virtually due to the pandemic, from Sept. 8 to Sept. 10. In its 14th year, the conference also includes the ADCOLOR Awards, which honor D&I advocates at agencies and brands, and ADCOLOR Futures, a training program for young professionals. Both programs will continue online this year.
"Our main priorities right now are to continue supporting our community and to prioritize everyone's health and well-being," said Tiffany R. Warren, ADCOLOR's founder and president and senior VP, chief diversity officer at Omnicom. "Communities of color have been disproportionately affected during this pandemic, making it especially important that we uphold our mission and champion these and all communities in the creative, marketing and tech industries even when it can't be done in person."
There’s plenty to mourn these days, and the sheer amount of tragedy in the news everyday can be overwhelming. Madonna Badger has seen her share of tragedy, losing her family in 2011. She talks about coping with grief on the latest episode of the “Ad Block” podcast. “I had to find a purpose,” she says of eventually returning to work at her agency. “I knew I couldn’t do this just to sell something.”
Peep show: Want to feel paranoid about webcams? Check out the latest PSA from Pornhub, where poor Daniel thinks he’s logged off for some quality alone time but ends up giving his coworkers an unintentional show. The spot is from Madrid agency Officer & Gentleman, Pornhub’s long-time creative partner.
Animal branding: Vacation canceled and travel plans ruined by lockdown? Take a virtual trip in Animal Crossing, Nintendo’s wildly popular video game, where brands have begun creating experiential online events. “Players visiting Sentosa Development Corp.’s virtual island could do yoga on the beach, sip on a bubble tea or relax at a resort spa, all experiences available on the island IRL,” writes Ad Age’s Ilyse Liffreing.
Primary confection: Dunkin’ (née Donuts) is getting political. A new campaign asks viewers to vote for their favorite doughnut flavor: Boston Kreme, chocolate frosted with sprinkles, glazed, glazed chocolate, jelly and old fashioned (the second-best kind of Old Fashioned). Anthropomorphic sweets lay out their qualifications in a short spot, but we’re all winners. Dunkin’ is giving away a free doughnut with a beverage purchase on Jun. 5, National Donut Day.
That does it for today’s Wake-Up Call. Thanks for reading and we hope you are all staying safe and well. For more industry news and insight, follow us on Twitter: @adage.
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