Super Tuesday has come and gone, and while voters told pollsters they wanted to avoid a rematch of the 2020 presidential matchup, that’s exactly what they’ve given us. President Joe Biden faces his predecessor once again and if he wins, Democrats will have held the White House for 16 of the 20 years leading up to 2028. Former President Donald Trump has a chance to do what only Grover Cleveland has done: serve two non-consecutive terms in the White House.

Biden has the advantage of incumbency but is also saddled with many issues and perceptions that may pose challenges to his reelection. One burden he won’t face is a lack of money to spread his message: Biden just released his fundraising totals and has nine figures of cash on hand.

Trump faces obstacles as well, including an unprecedented fine in a highly unusual New York court case. He has less cash on hand and is at a distinct disadvantage compared to President Biden’s war chest.Spending in the presidential race shows Republicans with an approximately $64 million spending lead over Democrats. FF PAC, a Democratic SuperPAC, leads all spenders with $150m committed. The Republican lead is misleading given that there hasn’t been a real Democratic primary, and yet the Democrats are only $64m behind a competitive Republican primary. Spending by FF PAC begins right around Labor Day with that $150 million targeting eight states (in order of spending): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina and Nebraska. 

Why Nebraska? It’s due to the way Nebraska divides its electoral votes. Using the congressional district method, it allocates two electoral votes to the state’s popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of three districts. Democrats plan to compete aggressively believing they can provide the president with a big electoral vote in a close election.

The spending is focused on Omaha where the most competitive congressional district, NE-2, is located. The district, held by Republican Don Bacon since 2017, is rated “even” by the Cook Political Report. Efforts have been made by the Nebraska legislature to dilute the district’s urban (Democratic) voters by adding rural (Republican) areas to the district. Biden won the district in 2020. An interesting nugget coming from Comscore’s brand new Congressional District CTV index provides some guidance to advertisers and agencies interested in NE-2. Video viewers in this district under-index in their use of CTV despite having an urban area at its heart. However, viewers in the far more rural NE-3 Congressional district exceeded the index for CTV use. That’s a bit counterintuitive!

When it comes to the U.S. Senate, Democrats are playing defense this year while Republicans find themselves in an advantageous position to take control. Ted Cruz in Texas or Rick Scott in Florida are thought to be somewhat vulnerable, but both seats are rated as “likely Republican.”

The money is focused on those states where Democrats are supporting incumbent senators under pressure. West Virginia seems a foregone conclusion as a Republican pickup by Gov. Jim Justice or his primary opponent, Rep. Alex Mooney. Justice is the strong favorite to sweep the primary and general elections and replace retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

Spending in Montana and Ohio have dominated the early months of 2024—almost $200 million in Ohio thanks to a raucous Republican primary and strategic spending by the Democrats supporting Sen. Sherrod Brown. And Democrats actually ran ads in the GOP primary's closing days boosting Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who they believe is less electable than more moderate alternatives.

It was really a match between Ohio’s Republican establishment and Trump. Moreno was opposed by State Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Dolan was endorsed by former Sen. Rob Portman and Governor Mike DeWine. Trump and Senator J.D. Vance rallied for Moreno. A late poll had Moreno narrowly in the lead, but the former car dealer outperformed the poll, topping 50% support from Republican primary voters.

Is Moreno up for the challenge in a state where Trump looks to be a clear favorite? Will Ohio voters split their tickets to keep Brown in the Senate? 

Also read: X pitch deck—inside Twitter's push for political ad dollars

In Montana, Sen. Steve Daines, who is also chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, backed former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy to run against the always resilient Democratic incumbent, John Tester. Sheehy has a clear path to the general election where he’ll be the latest Republican trying to unseat Tester. Expect a full array of advertisers attempting to convince voters to retain Tester or replace him with Sheehy.

Commitments of nearly $120 million have already been made, which means this contest could be the most expensive in Montana history. The 2020 Senate contest between Sen. Daines and Gov. Steve Bullock totaled nearly $150 million. Similar or greater totals are in play in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. The retirement of Democratic Sen. Krysten Sinema in Arizona focuses attention on the two main party candidates, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.

I’m uncertain whether Wisconsin or Michigan will be as competitive or expensive as these other states, but both could catch fire.

The outcome in the Michigan Senate race, between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, may be impacted by factors outside Slotkin’s control as the war between Israel and Hamas continues. The discontent in Michigan’s sizable Arab American community is a variable that could cost both President Biden and Slotkin if those voters decide to stay home on Election Day.

Among media sellers, questions have arisen if the projected spends for total political advertising in 2024 will be correct. Estimates range anywhere from $10 billion to $16 billion. I stand by the most recent Campaign Media Analysis Group’s (CMAG) estimate of $11.4 billion.

Thanks to Mitchell West and Vivvix/CMAG for the spending totals from their Competitive Navigator.