Bob Garfield's Chaos Scenario 2.0

Maybe you'd better lean forward. Presently you will be given five reasons to consider something barely imaginable: a post-apocalyptic media world substantially devoid of brand advertising as we have long known it. It's a world in which Canadian trees are left standing and broadcast towers aren't. It's a world in which consumer engagement occurs without consumer interruption, in which listening trumps dictating, in which the internet is a dollar store for movies and series, in which ad agencies are marginalized and Cannes is deserted in the third week of June. It is a world, to be specific, in which marketing -- and even branding -- are conducted without much reliance on the 30-second spot or glossy spread. Because nobody is much interested in seeing them, and because soon they will be largely unnecessary. Perhaps you are already rolling your eyes. Perhaps you believe that vast structures on which vast societies and vast economies depend do not easily lose their primacy. Perhaps you believe that the TV commercial and magazine spread -- and radio spot and newspaper classified -- are forever and immutable, like the planets orbiting the sun. Good for you. Now, say hello to Pluto -- the suddenly former planet. Forever and immutable, it turns out, are subject to demotion. This could be grim news for the agency business, which continues its erratic Pluto-like orbit around marketing budgets as if unaware that it has lost its stature -- and its relevance is next to go. In due course, you shall see how circumstances have conspired to threaten its place on the cosmic map altogether.Video killed whom? To support the analogy of planetary delisting, we needn't go back 5 billion years to the origin of the solar system. Instead, just think back to approximately the day before yesterday. Remember how they used to talk about "the MTV generation"? It was shorthand for the post-baby boomers who couldn't be stimulated unless you basically jammed kaleidoscopes in their eyeballs. They had cut their teeth on the rapid-fire editing and visual noise of music video, so all media were obliged to pick up the pace or lose the attention of an entire generation. And just in case the symbolism escaped you, don't forget the first song that ever played on MTV: "Video Killed the Radio Star," by the Buggles. Ironic, eh? But not as ironic as this: The latest thing the MTV generation has begun losing interest in is MTV, where ratings fell sharply last year. Short Attention Span Theater has changed venues and is now housed on YouTube. Online video is killing the video star. Over at MTV Networks, the layoffs began in February. No huge surprise there. Two years ago in this very publication, "The Chaos Scenario" predicted that the pillars of old media would soon come tumbling down. That the MTV pillar had Public Enemy and George Michael and 'NSync posters plastered all over it, and was deemed the last word in modern TV, makes it especially noteworthy -- but by no means unique. Since "Chaos": This is the fourth installment of Ad Age Ad Review columnist Bob Garfield's "Chronicles of the Media Revolution" series in which he explores ongoing technological upheaval across the media and marketing industries. His three earlier installments are: Garfield's weekly columns and daily blog can be found in the Bob Garfield section of this AdAge.com website. ALSO: Comment on this article in the 'Your Opinion' box below. -- The Buggles, 1979

Bob Garfield's Chaos Scenario 2.0

Featured Stories