Political advertising spending is projected to hit a record $12 billion during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, with $3 billion expected to be spent in the presidential race alone, according to a new report from Stagwell media agency Assembly.

Advertising spend is expected to hit $9 billion in down-ballot races, according to the agency’s 2024 Election Outlook report—equal to how much was spent in total on political advertising during the 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle.

There will be fewer competitive statewide races in 2024 than there were in 2022, meaning more investment will be driven into fewer campaigns, per the report, which noted that there could be two to three record $300 million campaigns for U.S. Senate races. Similarly, “we’ve only seen a few House races top the $50 million mark; 2024 could see quite a few,” the report said.

The high investment in down-ballot races is what is especially unique to the 2024 election cycle, said Tyler Goldberg, North America director of political strategy at Assembly. “Governor, attorney general, secretaries of state races; these are races that didn’t used to get a ton of attention [but] are now getting a lot of attention,” he said.

More: How a record $8.2 billion was spent in the 2022 midterms

State legislature races in Virginia, for example, are “seeing millions and millions of dollars of investment. That's not something we’re used to seeing,” Goldberg said.

One reason for the spending boost is some of the more competitive down-ballot races including for House seats “happen to be in some of the most expensive markets in the country; New York, Los Angeles. These are places that it’s expensive to advertise any time,” Goldberg said.

Political advertising will be unavoidable in swing states including Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the report said. There are 12 gubernatorial elections in 2024 and only two that are considered to be competitive: North Carolina and New Hampshire. “Charlotte is set to be at the epicenter of all of this spending,” according to the report.

Among the “hottest” markets for political advertising this election cycle will be cities including Nevada’s Las Vegas and Reno, as well as Philadelphia, the report stated.

Los Angeles is also projected to be an epicenter of political advertising, per the report. California has a rare Senate seat open with several hopefuls and “at least 10 U.S House races in California that will be highly competitive in 2024, seven of which are Republican-held seats that Democrats see as viable pickup opportunities,” according to the report.  

The agency also noted in the report the increased pressure there likely will be on brands to speak out on political issues. “Every company will have to balance this pressure from consumers and employees with their desire to maintain the health of their brand,” it said.

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“In 2024, consumers are voters and voters are consumers,” Assembly North America CEO Valerie Davis said. “In an unprecedented cycle, commercial advertisers will be unable to completely hide from politics and must be well-equipped to respond to the extraordinary amount of political spending and creative that will flood newsfeeds.”

The report came from Assembly’s predictive tool, the Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII), according to the agency. Assembly handles some political media and, back in 2020, worked on billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s big-spending, but short-lived run for president. The agency opened its politics and advocacy practice in 2019.

Contributing: Kevin Brown