Leading National Advertisers 2023—Spending is still growing, but a recession looms

The Leading National Advertisers put more bucks into their budgets in 2022 as the economy kept going and consumers kept spending.Ad forecasters expect U.S. ad spending to keep growing despite economic headwinds and angst about a looming recession. Ad Age Leading National Advertisers 2023 Ad spending, rankings and analysis for the biggest marketers and brands Enter here The top 200 U.S. advertisers raised their spending on ad and marketing services by 8.0% in 2022, reaching a record $210 billion, according to Ad Age Datacenter. The growth in 2022 was more moderate compared to the surge in spending seen in 2021, when the top 200 advertisers ramped up their spending by 19.7% as the ad market recovered from the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020. Growth in 2022 was still impressive, marking the third-highest percentage spending gain for the Leading National Advertisers in the past 15 years, following the exceptional years of 2021 and 2010 (after the 2007-2009 Great Recession). Among the 200 biggest advertisers, 133 increased spending in 2022. Among the top 100 advertisers—the true blue chips of brands and budgets—65 boosted spending. Growth in spending for the top 200 advertisers was in line with growth in agency revenue. Average U.S. organic growth for five major agency holding companies— WPP, Publicis, Omnicom, Interpublic and Dentsu—was 7.6% in 2022. Organic growth strips out acquisitions, divestitures and the effects of exchange rates. 10 key stats Ad Age Leading National Advertisers +8.0% Top 200’s 2022 total U.S. ad spending growth Ad Age Leading National Advertisers 133 Number of top 200 that increased ad spending in 2022 Carnival Corp. +153% Highest 2022 U.S. ad spending growth among top 200 Johnson & Johnson -40% Sharpest 2022 U.S. ad spending drop among top 200 Billion-dollar spenders 55 Marketers with 2022 total U.S. ad spending greater than $1 billion Amazon $6.1 billion Most-advertised brand. 2022 U.S. measured-media spending 2023 advertising +5.1% GroupM’s U.S. forecast, excluding political advertising 2024 advertising +5.0% GroupM’s U.S. forecast, excluding political advertising Digital pure plays 66% Share of 2024 U.S. ad revenue captured by pure-play digital media ventures such as Facebook and Google. Forecast from GroupM TV 19% TV’s share of 2024 U.S. ad revenue. Forecast from GroupM Amazon led the marketers ranking for the fourth consecutive year, with estimated U.S. ad and promotion outlays surging 29%. Amazon’s scale is remarkable, with estimated U.S. spending of $13.5 billion surpassing the combined estimated spending of Comcast Corp. and Procter & Gamble Co., the second- and third-largest advertisers. The top of the list—the 10 biggest U.S. advertisers in 2022—includes nine marketers that made the year-ago top 10. Warner Bros. Discovery dropped in the ranking, moving to No. 19 from the year-ago No. 7 slot based on estimated combined spending for WarnerMedia and Discovery, which merged in April 2022. Ad Age Datacenter estimates that the company slashed spending 31% in full-year 2022 vs. combined pre-merger spending in 2021. Capital One Financial Corp. entered the top 10, with estimated U.S. marketing spending in 2022 rising about 40% to $3.8 billion, far exceeding its pre-pandemic level. However, the credit card issuer trimmed its marketing spending by 2% in the first quarter of 2023 vs. the same period a year ago. The ranking of the top 200 U.S. advertisers includes 32 companies born on the internet (for example, Alphabet, Amazon, Expedia Group and Wayfair) or focused on internet ventures (for example, Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts International, whose marketing spending is heavily weighted toward online sports betting and gaming). Combined U.S. spending for those 32 internet-centric marketers rose 18.8% in 2022, far above the 5.6% increase for the remaining 168 marketers. Among the internet-centric marketers, 25 increased spending. Seven of the companies cut spending: DoorDash (delivery service), Etsy (retail marketplace), LendingTree (loan marketplace), Meta Platforms (Facebook), Qurate Retail (QVC, HSN), Recruit Holdings Co. (Indeed, Glassdoor) and Rocket Cos. (mortgages). Ad Age Leading National Advertisers 2023 Ad Age assigned each of the top 200 advertisers to a category based on the marketer’s primary advertised product or service. On that basis, aggregate U.S. ad spending for the Leading National Advertisers rose in every marketer category except household products, where estimated spending fell at Clorox Co. and Henkel, and toys, where Mattel trimmed spending. Among the categories, travel had the strongest ad growth far and away, with spending for nine travel marketers jumping 38% in 2022 as travel continued to accelerate from the pandemic lockdown. Travel also was the fastest-growing ad category in 2021. Spending gains continued in 2023, with double-digit growth in the first quarter at a host of travel firms. Three travel marketers—Carnival Corp., Tripadvisor and Norwegian Cruise Line—scored the highest ad spending growth among the top 200, with spending at the trio surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Three categories—retail, entertainment and media, financial services—ranked as the biggest categories among the Leading National Advertisers, with 91 marketers accounting for half of the top 200’s 2022 U.S. ad spending. The ranking includes 37 retailers that together increased 2022 U.S. spending by 13%, ranging from 59% growth at Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade New York) to a 7% drop at Gap Inc. (Banana Republic, Gap, Old Navy). Among retailers, 26 had increases. The ranking has 25 entertainment and media firms that together increased 2022 spending by 12%, with gains at 19 companies. Live Nation Entertainment’s estimated U.S. spending surged 84%, the highest growth in the category, as revenue and ad spending soared past the concert and ticketing company’s pre-pandemic level. The top 200 list includes 29 financial services firms that together increased spending by 5%. Among those firms, 16 boosted budgets in 2022, led by a 52% rise in advertising and marketing at online bank Ally Financial. But spending in 2022 varied markedly across financial services, with ad cuts at major insurance marketers—Allstate Corp., Berkshire Hathaway (Geico), Liberty Mutual, Progressive Corp., State Farm—as the industry grappled with losses and pushed for rate increases. Financial services marketing remains a mixed picture in 2023, with higher interest rates and a slower housing market dampening demand for mortgages and refinancing. American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Progressive increased first-quarter spending. Spending in the first three months fell at Allstate, LendingTree and Rocket. Ad forecasters expect U.S. ad spending to keep growing even as a recession looms. WPP’s GroupM in June forecast that U.S. ad revenue in 2023 will increase 5.1% (excluding political advertising, direct mail and directories), with growth of 5.0% in 2024. (Those figures are a bit lower than what GroupM forecast last December: 5.5% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024.) Factoring in direct mail, directories and political advertising, GroupM expects ad revenue growth of just 1.4% in 2023 (after 2022’s surge in election spending), with growth of 8.1% in 2024 (amid a spike in election spending). Interpublic Group of Cos.’ Magna in June forecast that U.S. ad revenue will grow 4.2% in 2023 excluding political advertising, cyclical sports events and direct mail (a downward revision from the 5.2% it forecast in March), with growth of 5.0% projected for 2024. Factoring in political advertising and cyclical sports events but excluding direct mail, Magna expects ad revenue growth of 2.5% in 2023 (down from 3.4% growth it forecast in March), jumping to 7.3% in 2024 with a boost from presidential elections and next summer’s Paris Olympics. Ad Age Leading National Advertisers 2023 Ad spending, rankings and analysis for the biggest marketers and brands Enter here © Copyright 2023 Crain Communications Inc. The data and information presented is the property of Crain and others and is protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. For personal, noncommercial use only, which must be in accordance with Ad Age’s Terms and Conditions at AdAge.com/terms. Archiving, reproduction, redistribution or other uses are prohibited.

Leading National Advertisers 2023—Spending is still growing, but a recession looms

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