The bombshell link between cancer and alcohol consumption outlined in an advisory from the U.S. surgeon general on Friday will have repercussions for alcohol marketers but they won’t necessarily be drastic or arrive swiftly, sources say.

Brands and trade associations will likely show sympathy for consumer health concerns while pushing against labeling and marketing restrictions that, at best, could be a nuisance and, at worst, a prohibitive measure like those that toppled the tobacco industry. But sources don’t expect any restrictions to take down the alcohol industry and noted that much could change before new recommendations are approved by congress—including interpretations of the underlying science.

“I don’t see anyone pushing the panic button just yet as I’m not sure where the incoming POTUS stands on this,” industry consultant Bump Williams said in an email, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. 

The advisory released Friday by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services hit the alcohol industry hard. It included a series of statistics and graphics detailing how alcohol plays a role in various forms of cancer, including breast cancer, and how increased consumption aligns with increased risk.

Alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the U.S., after tobacco and obesity, and increases risk for at least seven types of cancer, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said in the advisory. Murthy urged congress to update mandatory warning labels on packages while reassessing consumption guidelines and advising the public as to the link between alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk. Murthy also urged public health officials to expand efforts to educate consumers.

Cancer deaths associated with alcohol—around 20,000 a year in the U.S.—outnumber the 13,500 alcohol-related car crash fatalities, Murthy said.

Also read: 7 trends driving winter alcohol marketing 

More bad news

The warning is another shot of bad news for an industry already beset by declining consumption patterns and long-struggling brands.

“A health warning on pack, and at point-of-sale, clearly is meant to put an obstacle in the way of further purchase and consumption,” said Marty Stock, a Marquette University professor and former agency executive with beer clients such as Anheuser-Busch InBev, Molson Coors and Constellation Brands. “The health warning would only add to their issues but it’s far from the main threat they face.”

Williams added: “I’m not as worried about this news as I am about proposed tariffs, 2025 price increases, the explosion of cannabis/THC/Delta 9 alternatives and the whole decline in alcohol consumption.” 

The alcohol industry recently lost a battle in Ireland to prevent labels highlighting a cancer link from being added to alcohol products; the labels will be introduced in 2026. Alcohol labels in South Korea now carry a cancer warning.

“We informed the industry more than two years ago that the WHO [World Health Organization] would be coming after bev-alcohol so I’m sure there are strategies and contingencies in place or on a white board somewhere with multiple courses of action,” said Williams.

Brands contacted by Ad Age directed questions toward trade associations. A spokesperson for the Beer Institute offered a brief statement that didn’t mention cancer: “The U.S. beer industry has been a champion of responsible consumption for decades. We encourage adults of legal drinking age to make choices that best fit their personal circumstances, and if they choose to drink, to consume alcohol beverages in moderation.”

The Brewers Association, which represents craft brewers, said it supported moderate and responsible consumption but said packaging changes could present a financial challenge to its members. “Adults of legal drinking age should be mindful of the amount of alcohol they consume and ensure that they are making the best decision for themselves based on their lifestyle and family health history,” the association said in a statement. “Brewers would incur significant costs to update their packaging if legislation were passed to change the language on the label.”

Health and wellness

Increased scrutiny of health risks associated with alcohol is a signal of the health and wellness megatrend’s impact on the industry. Although at times a challenge, wellness is also driving some of the industry’s latest successes. Non-alcohol drinks are among the fastest-growing segments, and lower-calorie brands such as Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Michelob Ultra are succeeding behind fitness positioning (Ultra is also preparing to release a non-alc version). Big companies in recent years have also expanded their portfolios to include non-alcohol selections.

“We are in an environment where there is a greater interest in helping people navigate health, and education on the risks of certain foods and substances is going to be a larger part of the conversion going forward,” said Jason DeLand, founding partner of the agency Anomaly.

Still, alcohol brands have a tricky path to navigate. They’ve gone to school on tobacco counterparts whose open opposition to public health warnings backfired, said Tony Ponturo, a consultant and former Anheuser-Busch InBev marketer. Similarly, they’ve been restrained in the face of positive health news, such as reports associating beer and wine with heart health.

“I think that if they did come down to putting some kind of caution on the label, that’s certainly a negative; the industry in general would not see that as a positive,” Ponturo said. “My guess is they would do a lot of work to understand the credibility of the [U.S. Surgeon General] research, and what it’s all about.”

Alcohol brands have historically struck the right tone on health and wellness messaging, DeLand said.

“I think every brand I’ve ever worked with in the alcohol space wanted their customers to be responsible with their products. No one wants binge drinking. No one wants underage drinking. And to the extent alcohol can be a part of a lifestyle repertoire where you can enjoy a glass of wine or a beer or have a few drinks with your friends to celebrate something, I don’t think anyone thinks that’s inherently negative or is going to cause cancer.”

But if warnings were to extend to TV advertising, “that would get overly Draconian,” DeLand said. “I’m all for transparency and science and data to be there to help people, but I think we have to also balance that against being a nanny state.”