Nielsen is bringing back trading on its panel-only national TV ratings for the coming upfronts, after TV networks balked at using a currency that applied its set-top box and smart TV data for deals this year, according to people familiar with the matter. The late-game move upends plans by some agencies to trade on Nielsen’s big data currency.

Nielsen in a statement said the company “believes strongly that the currency used by our industry be audited and ultimately accredited by the most rigorous standards set by the Media Rating Council.” So the company said it will continue to endorse the MRC-accredited panel-only currency for the upcoming upfront “while we move ahead with the process to seek full accreditation for a currency informed by big data.” Nielsen and industry executives, however, said the company will still support trading this year on its big data plus currency numbers for buyers and sellers who agree to do so.

“Rollout plans for Nielsen One will not be impacted by this change,” the company’s statement said, which would include its use in the 2024 upfronts. Some people in the media industry believe the company will not be able to provide sufficient historical data to permit trading on its big data until 2025, which Nielsen denies.

Also read: Nielsen's Media Rating Council TV accreditation restored

Upending agency plans

Nielsen’s move to bring back panel-only data for this upfront is upending plans for some agencies just weeks before trading begins. It also is fueling behind-the-scenes debates between companies or even within companies where some networks have seen their audience numbers boosted by Nielsen’s big data and those who stand to lose ground, according to people familiar with the matter.

In a statement, VAB CEO Sean Cunningham said the group, which represents networks, supported Nielsen’s decision to delay the use of the “Big Data +Panel product” until Sept. 2024, though Nielsen and industry executives said trading on that product will still be supported in the current upfront for those who want it.

“The VAB’s Measurement Innovation Task Force will continue to work in an open feedback and analysis channel with top Nielsen executives on this new big data plus panel data set as Nielsen intends it to be both cross-platform multiscreen TV currency and a pillar part of their cross-media measurement ambitions” with Nielsen One, according to Cunningham’s statement.

People familiar with the matter said Nielsen informed agencies on Friday of the decision to bring back the panel-only numbers for this year. The company originally planned to use only the big data set from 30 million U.S. homes—about a quarter of the total—as the primary currency, calibrated with data from its 41,000-household panel. But Nielsen executives told some agencies that opposition from unnamed sell-side players meant it couldn’t offer the big data set as the sole currency.

While the new device data sets Nielsen is using are the same as those that feed its new Nielsen One Ads system, technically Nielsen is not using Nielsen One in the coming upfront, because, among other things, trading this year will still be on traditional C3 and C7 ratings (commercials viewed in the three and seven days afer a program airs) developed for linear TV, which will no longer be supported as currency under Nielsen One.

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Impact and outlook varies

The impact of the move on advertisers varies. For some agencies, which insist on using only one Nielsen currency for trading, the move means adjusting plans that were already in place to use big data and going back to panel-based ratings this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

Some other agencies had never planned to trade on Nielsen’s big data this year, citing similar concerns to some networks that the data supplied so far isn’t complete enough to allow them to plan. They also noted that Nielsen only last week ported six months of historical “impact” data from the new measurement into its widely used Nielsen Media Index planning tool.

The moves also expose considerable confusion and some divides as the media industry prepares to shift to a world where all of the trading currencies are new, including those of Nielsen rivals Comscore, iSpot.tv and VideoAmp offered as alternatives by many networks. In this new “multi-currency” world, Nielsen will have two of its own in the fray this year. The measurement giant tried a similar tack last year before backing off in the face of refusal of both sell- and buy-side players to use its new, untested big data.

Also read: Byron Allen calls Nielsen 'fraudulent' at AMG upfront

Executives of some agencies and networks that support using Nielsen’s big data offering this year see some inconsistency among networks refusing to use it while embracing rivals. One noted that some network critics of Nielsen are willing to accept far bigger variances in historical data from rival measurement firms than they are from Nielsen.

The re-accreditation Nielsen received from the Media Rating Council earlier this month only covers its legacy panel-based ratings on a national basis. Nielsen One Ads and the integration of big data sets that supports it are only in the early pre-audit stages of MRC review. So, technically, the big data set Nielsen is making available this year is no more or less accredited than those of rivals such as Comscore and iSpot (which have MRC accreditation applications in the works) or VideoAmp, which has begun the process of preparing for an application, according to people familiar with the matter.

Tortuous process

Another executive familiar with the recent fast-moving evolution of Nielsen’s plans regarding upfront currency in recent days, described a tortuous process in which Nielsen dropped a month’s worth of historical big data plus panel numbers for review only weeks before negotiations begin.

One reason networks are willing to accept more variance in data from Nielsen rivals than from Nielsen is a matter of scale, this executive said. Nielsen rivals are writing deals totaling in the low nine figures of transaction volume vs. the “$65 billion handled by Nielsen.” Until last week, this executive said, Nielsen was proposing to use a big data currency with no more track record than those rival currencies as its only currency.

Nielsen’s thinking appeared to change in part when its MRC accreditation for national panel-based ratings was restored on April 17. But the MRC was clear, according to this executive, that Nielsen couldn’t bill its big data plus panel numbers as “MRC accredited” when the big data portion is not.

Accreditation debate continues

While Nielsen won re-accreditation for its panel ratings from the full MRC by addressing a dozen previously identified deficiencies in its processes, it still didn’t have support from many media sellers, according to another person familiar with the matter.

A key reason was concern over the number of broadband-only households Nielsen counts in its panel, which stands at 35%, this person said, while other measures, such as the Advertising Research Federation DASH study with data from late 2022, show only 31% of households as broadband-only. It may seem like a small difference, but one that could cost networks billions of dollars in revenue, this person said.

According to the MRC in a statement, Nielsen has committed to adjusting the BBO figure based on its internal research.

MRC CEO George Ivie at the Advertising Research Foundation AudienceXScience event on Tuesday said the industry rating body is working with the ARF to start an audit of DASH to be used as a component by companies across the industry.

A person familiar with the matter said the 31% BBO household figure was just a midpoint average for 2022, up from 25% in 2021. So, given the trajectory, Nielsen’s 35% figure could be spot on for trading of 2023-2024 inventory.

While modeling more broadband-only households could hurt some network ratings in the coming year, ditching big data in currency could hurt others. Impact data supplied from Nielsen so far show substantial gains for Hispanic, Black and Gen Z audiences, according to people familiar with the matter. If moves by some networks to refuse the big data set, and Nielsen’s move to return panel only data to currency status for one more year, results in some agencies only trading on panel data, that will clearly hurt some networks.

“Are you really going to argue that panel ratings are more stable than big data,” asked one network executive. “With panel, we can have 10 people go on vacation for a week and it hits our ratings.” The executive added that Nielsen’s recent methodological explanations to the VAB in correspondence between the two appeared well-reasoned and satisfactory.

Also read: Asian audiences moving to CTV at faster rate

Network concerns

A March letter from VAB's Cunningham to Nielsen CEO of Audience Measurement Karthik Rao outlined network concerns with the most recent February “impact data,” essentially a set of historical device data from Nielsen One compared to panel data. This includes lack of month-to-month stability and lack of consistency by gender and day part, in particular within “major properties” such as college football and NFL games.

Overall, adding big data represented an improvement in many areas, according to the VAB, including in counting of Spanish-language and younger demographics, but still contained many of the same illogical results in comparing big data to panel-only numbers found a year earlier.

The favorable impact on Spanish-language and Black audiences in Nielsen’s big data offering is in a sense a surprise, given that device sets tend to underrepresent both audiences. But Nielsen’s fusion of panel and other data from Experian appears to have offset that effect, and the greater granularity of the data improves measurement of programs with smaller audiences.

"The VAB’s Measurement Innovation Task Force will continue to work in an open feedback and analysis channel with top Nielsen executives on this new big data plus panel data set as Nielsen intends it to be both cross-platform multiscreen TV currency and a pillar part of their cross-media measurement ambitions," Cunningham said in a statement.