Election 2024—US Senate races dominate political ad spending

Just five months from Election Day, the finish line is in sight. Before discussing the race for the White House, let’s revisit the U.S. Senate race in Maryland, which has come into focus now that the primary is over. Despite spending $60 million of his own money, Democratic Rep. David Trone couldn’t overcome a late challenge from Prince George County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in the Democratic Senate primary. Trone proved the old axiom about money not always being the key to electoral success: He outspent Alsobrooks by more than 10-1 and was a frequent and early presence on all forms of media. There was little SuperPAC activity; the most meaningful effort came from Women Vote, which spent more than $2 million in support of Alsobrooks. Trone’s effort was moving along briskly until an Alsobrooks TV ad showed nearly every prominent Maryland Democrat standing behind her in a show of support, including popular Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, Reps. Jamie Raskin and Glenn Ivey and Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller. It changed the momentum of the campaign. Alsobrooks is also supported by former Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski. Alsobrooks would be the first African American senator in state history. But despite Maryland’s overwhelmingly Democratic electorate, she faces a formidable opponent in former two-term Republican Gov. Larry Hogan. Ad Age Small Agency Conference & Awards Join us July 23 & 24 in Boston Learn more here Hogan, still popular with Maryland voters, was an easy primary winner, meaning Democrats will spend money on this race they didn’t want to spend. A Hogan campaign highlights his independence, assuring voters that he’s not a sure-fire vote for the Republican agenda—including abortion. Maryland Democrats might like Hogan but handing control of the U.S. Senate to Republicans—likely if Hogan wins—may give them pause. This race has the potential to be the most interesting of the political season as it gives Republicans a chance to flip the Senate. Expect a loud and expensive response from Democrats. Campaign ad spending in the presidential race is in its usual lull between the primaries and this summer’s national conventions. Republicans convene July 15-18 in Milwaukee; Democrats meet in Chicago Aug. 19-22. Will recent protests over the war in Gaza and President Biden’s handling of it move from college campuses to the convention—as anti-Vietnam War protests did in 1968? While former President Trump has been on trial in New York City—and convicted last week of 34 felony counts of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal threatening his 2016 presidential campaign—President Biden has been on the campaign trail trying to close a steady polling gap. Recent polls show Trump inching closer in some blue or bluish-purple states—he is within 9 points in New York State while margins in Minnesota and Virginia have closed to within the margin of error. Biden maintains a significant financial edge over Trump despite being outraised in April. While it appears the momentum is with Trump, it is not out of reach for Biden. Both candidates have significant negatives to overcome. Democrats have committed to more than $200 million (mostly after Labor Day) in campaign ad spending. The Republican tally is barely $20 million. The Trump campaign has done nothing in major media, with most of its efforts coming from the Make America Great SuperPAC. Democrats comprise 16 of the 22 advertisers that have or will be running presidential ads from March forward. Dominating this group is the FF PAC, which placed approximately $150 million, followed by the Biden campaign at about $30 million, with spending focused on the swing states. On the third-party side, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has made a modest five-figure investment. Trump has been limited in campaigning by the need to be in court each day but has made the most of his time by drawing sizable crowds in very blue areas including New Jersey and the Bronx. The Bronx rally in particular alarmed Democrats. One could argue that Trump has gained the advantage while Biden has been by himself on the campaign trail. We are clearly in a strange new world. Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs The Biden campaign has already embraced the moniker “Convicted Felon, Donald Trump.” Both candidates issued fundraising appeals following Trump’s conviction, with Republican sites crashing due to the volume of donations. Will the verdict allow Biden an opportunity to withdraw from the scheduled debates? Will he debate a felon? Once again, we find ourselves in unfamiliar territory. Another note on the 2024 Campaign scoreboard: Cleveland leads in political ad spending, bolstered by the Ohio U.S. Senate race between Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Trump-backed Bernie Moreno. It’s another race that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Commitments have topped $100 million in Cleveland and surpassed $250 million statewide. Other top markets attracting political dollars include Las Vegas, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, New York City, Detroit and Columbus, Ohio. It’s easy to see the influence of the key Senate races in most of these markets. We’re set up for a nail-biting finish. Thanks to CMAG, a Mediaradar company, for the campaign spending totals from its Competitive Navigator. Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs

Election 2024—US Senate races dominate political ad spending

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