Ad tech in 2024—predictions on AI, TikTok, Netflix, Google and more

To borrow a quote from Yogi Berra, It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future—of AI, Apple, Netflix, TikTok and Google’s cookieless world. But Ad Age will try to do just that for 2024, with our annual glimpse into what’s on deck for advertisers in the new year. This year, AI will hold more surprises for advertisers, such as producing video more flawlessly, along with other improvements. There will be major shifts in the connected TV landscape, particularly with Amazon, Netflix and Apple developing their ad businesses. Meanwhile, TikTok will grow its shopping capabilities, but there is uncertainty about whether that will stick with U.S. consumers. The viral platform is also pushing into longer-form videos, but it remains to be seen whether that will work for video hit-making app known for shorts. Google is rushing to meet its cookie deadline on Chrome by the end of 2024, which is expected to be a bumpy process for publishers and their ad tech vendors. Also read: Google responds to ad tech critics over cookie timeline Advertising leaders are keeping an eye on all these trends, especially in AI, where brands are still fumbling with this new technology. Last year saw the rise of AI chatbots, image-makers and generative AI ads. “As humans, we struggle to imagine what exponential change looks like,” said Henry Cowling, chief innovation officer at ad agency Media.Monks. “In 2024, AI is going to surprise … everyone again.” See our Year in Review stories here So, with the frightening prospect of AI eating agencies’ lunch, here is a look at what else is in store. AI breakthroughs will continue … Video and virtual assistants will be the next hyped generative AI trends. Brands have already seen the fun of using ChatGPT for text and image generators for creating playful images, but video has been choppy. In 2024, text-to-video will become even more accessible, and that will lead to a boom in brands trying the technology. All the major platforms are working on it, including OpenAI, Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft. Video is predicted to lead to some quirky experimentation, but like image generators, it will result in a boom of mediocre creative. “We’re going to see a lot more [trash] content, buckets and buckets of AI-generated [trash],” said Enda Conway, senior VP and head of connections strategy at BBDO. But generative AI will give all businesses a way to make ad campaigns more quickly and easily, and that gives “mom and pops” a chance to have creative output on par with big brands, Conway said. That means big brands will have to up their game even more to compete with upstarts in digital advertising spaces. In 2023, AI video was still very raw and led to some horror-inducing content, some of which Ad Age has highlighted in its Top 5 AI marketing activations, such as “Shak Shaker Shamillion” (see below). AI’s most useful role in advertising will be in creating performance marketing campaigns with the push of a button. Google, Meta, Amazon and TikTok have already shown how generative AI can be used to make ads and set media plans to peak performance. Google has an AI product called PMax that takes over many facets of the role of media planners. The rise of AI in this area will lead to more tension in advertising, as some agencies don’t want to give up too much control over the process. “We’ll see AI outperform, certainly, human-only teams,” Cowling said. “In our space, creativity and content creation, we’re already seeing AI outperform performance marketing teams.” “What we need to see is our industry wholesale shift to a new commercial model and value proposition that is AI-first,” Cowling added. Generative AI assistants will emerge this year, with more brands trying to incorporate chatbots that are truly useful, but the prediction is they will still be a little unhelpful. Consumers will chat with more sophisticated AI agents to book travel, buy groceries and have other experiences, but the intelligence of these conversations will have its limits. Expect to see a brand try a new chatbot that fails spectacularly when put through its paces. Here are the top 5 AI activations in advertising from last year … But there are AI red flags ahead Despite the optimism around AI in 2024, there are still some warning signs. Some brands will get caught in a delicate dance of wanting to train AI models with all of their data, but regulators and watchdogs will be on the lookout. In fact, the most conservative brands will be scared to use any consumer data or questionably sourced data to build AI tools. “The main priority for brands right now is whatever it is [in AI], how can they make sure it’s secure or private,” said Jenny Kelly, Deloitte Digital's head of content. Deloitte recently surveyed 650 marketing organizations and found that a quarter are currently deploying generative AI, Kelly said. But “that will have to increase as brands feel pressure to do more and for cost-cutting measures,” Kelly said. That is the dilemma of 2024—brands don’t want to be last to the AI party lest they lose a key first-mover advantage. In fact, last week, The New York Times became the first major media outlet in the U.S. to sue OpenAI and Microsoft for allegedly using its deep wealth of information to train their models. That’s a harbinger for more entities to battle over how intellectual property and AI. Publishers, especially, are worried generative AI search engines will regurgitate their media without compensation. If the search engines can't use the most credible sources of information for their chatbots, that could limit their usefulness, too. Deepfakes are one of the scariest alerts in the realm of AI, especially with the rise of generative video. With the U.S. presidential election this year, there will undoubtedly be some of the most sophisticated video deepfake disinformation campaigns the world has seen. Brands have to be on the lookout for AI election shenanigans on social media, and that could affect their media plans. Read more: Big political ad spending is expected in 2024 AI marketing blog How brands are using ChatGPT, DALL-E 2 and other tools Read more here Streaming giants will merge, purge and collaborate Streaming TV continues to take an increasing share of linear viewing. In its latest earnings report Roku noted that in July linear TV dropped below 50% of total TV usage for the first time, "while streaming reached a record high, at 38.7% of all TV usage.” As such, Netflix’s ad business is the one to watch this year, and industry leaders predict it will make a major acquisition in ad tech to develop its own ad platform. That could lead it to break up with Microsoft, which had exclusive rights to sell Netflix ads since 2022. There will likely be a lot of potential for streaming giants to merge or, at least cooperate. In recent weeks, Apple TV+ and Paramount+ announced a “bundle” deal, where subscribers can get both services at a discount. The move showed that streaming is heading the way of cable, where apps will come together in packages as consumers get subscription fatigue. More streamers will feel pressure to come together if they want to widely distribute their ad-supported apps. Last month, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery were reportedly in talks to merge, which was another sign that legacy broadcast and cable giants need to team up to compete with Netflix, Amazon and YouTube. The entertainment studios are also showing a willingness to license more content that they once hoarded in order to share exclusively to their own apps. Ad Age's guide to all things streaming On the Apple ads front, the company has been developing an ad platform that has yet to truly take shape on streaming TV. Apple has search ads in its app store, but it has moved slowly with a wider ad network. In fact, the deal with Paramount+ did not mention advertising tie-ups. But this year Apple is expected to announce an ad-supported tier for Apple TV+, and with its existing relationships, such as the one with Paramount+, that could extend ads to more apps in its ecosystem. And 2024 is the year Amazon Prime Video will launch its fully ad-supported version. The industry will watch how viewers react when they are auto-enrolled into the advertising plan and whether they pay up to avoid ads. Streamers make it easier to go from commercial to cart Shopping will come into its own on streaming TV in 2024. So far, there have been signs of retail on TV, with Amazon’s Black Friday NFL game driving consumers from commercials directly to deals last year. Also, Disney+ has links to merch sales directly in its app. Roku has deals with retail media partners, including Kroger, Instacart and Walmart. Netflix will be an unlikely player in retail, too. In November, the return of “The Crown” on Netflix showed how viral shopping works in streaming TV. Sales soared of replicas of iconic clothing worn by Princess Diana, such as Gottex swimwear, depicted in the show. Netflix is proving to be as culturally and commercially resonant as TikTok when it comes to viral shopping. This year, streamers will figure out how to go from commercial to cart even more seamlessly. Meanwhile, another trend to watch in streaming—more niche FAST channels, especially from popular creators and social media stars. FAST stands for “free ad-supported streaming TV,” which most people know as the “basic cable” of the streaming world. The channels can be dedicated to one show, such as AMC’s “The Walking Dead” or “Baywatch” running on repeat. MrBeast, a.k.a. Jimmy Donaldson, has a channel on Roku, and more creators will follow. YouTube especially has a chance to launch channels on its app or in YouTube TV totally dedicated to creator content. TikTokers will go shopping TikTok has the potential to win in an area no other social media app has cracked, and that’s shopping. TikTok Shop launched in the U.S. in 2023, giving micro-video stars a way to hawk consumer goods for sale right in the app. However, it is hard to predict if TikTok can successfully turn on its e-commerce channel. It is undoubtedly a place where products get promoted, and go viral, leading to sales. But are enough U.S. consumers willing to link their financial data to the app, and will major brands join, too? The forecast is that TikTok will attract a number of fast-fashion and buzzy consumer goods to its commerce platform, and then heavily promote the videos for these informercials on the popular “For You Page.” What TikTok needs is a moment like Netflix’s recent Princess Diana swimsuits to provide a spark to help TikTok Shop take root. TikTok also needs a major retailer, such as Walmart, to join. Walmart already has hosted sales events on TikTok, sending people to its online store, but has not made products available directly in TikTok Shop. There are also signs that TikTok users are frustrated by the flood of overt salesmanship in videos, especially during the holiday season. TikTok will have to be careful not to ruin what’s made the app fun in favor of commercialization. To counter TikTok, rival apps are doing more retail partnerships, especially with Amazon. Amazon recently struck deals with Instagram and Snap to run ads for products that people can click and buy in the apps, which is linked to their Amazon Prime accounts. Amazon has had a hard time creating its own social media experience, but 2024 could be the year it figures that out, as it owns Prime Video, Twitch and Amazon Live, the live-shopping video site. Amazon could also ally more closely with social media platforms, including Snap and Pinterest, to build the social media ecosystem. Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs TikTok will push more into longer video Another area TikTok is trying to make a bigger push into is longer form video. In October, TikTok went from 10 minutes as the longest video runtime to 15 minutes. It's unclear if TikTok viewers will stick around that long, though. The app is best consumed in a fast scroll, and that’s what made it popular. But increasing the length o videos will allow TikTok a better canvas to serve commercials, á la YouTube. “I worry slightly about TikTok trying to get into 15-minute stuff,” BBDO's Conway said. The push could lead creators and media partners to pivot to produce these longer videos and pour money and resources into them to little result. Social media has seen this before, where a platform wants to inspire a new type of behavior, partners pivot to accommodate it, and then flop. “My gut says [TikTok is] not going anywhere,” Conway said, “but there’s a part of me that sees TikTok and even sees the last six months, and I don’t think it’s as powerful as it was.” More from Ad Age: Inside Hilton’s 10-minute TikTok Social will be in the spotlight during the election TikTok is not out of the water yet in terms of government oversight in the U.S. This election year will turn up the heat on the company, which is owned by Chinese-based ByteDance. There will be plenty of attention paid to how TikTok is influencing the vote, and what content gets the most publicity on the app. Expect at least a few trends that draw the ire from candidates across the spectrum. No politician wants to face the wrath of tens of millions TikTokers, so an outright ban of the app is unlikely any time soon, but after the election in November, TikTok could come under pressure again. The other platform to watch come election time is X, formerly Twitter, now run by Elon Musk. The billionaire owner has not been shy about wanting to ensure the platform will be a place for political conversations and ads. Advertisers have already grown concerned that X could be too controversial for marketing, but it's also hard to match the site's influence on the wider cultural conversation. Musk, however, has a penchant for drawing the spotlight and tussling with foes of different political persuasions, which will definitely be in play throughout the election year. Last chance for cookies The boldest prediction of 2024: Google will finally deprecate 100% of third-party cookies on Chrome. Google has said that’s the plan since 2022, but a lot of ad leaders have been skeptical. Since 2019, Google has been testing Privacy Sandbox initiatives, a series of evolving strategies to facilitate advertising on the open web without surreptitious cookie trackers, and it has delayed the timetable before. Google’s ad fix needs to stand up to regulatory scrutiny in the U.K., and elsewhere. Google can’t be seen preferencing its own ad business, powered by its proprietary data, when it turns off data for publishers and ad tech rivals. There will be some ad tech providers scrambling all year to work with Privacy Sandbox, and Google will ultimately meet its deadline. The transition this year will not be easy, so expect publishers and some parts of the ad tech ecosystem, supply-side platforms and identity providers, to publicly vent problems with Privacy Sandbox’s APIs—the application programming interfaces—which they have to use in lieu of cookies to target and measure ad campaigns. Apple’s ad business is a wildcard here. The iPhone maker has been slow-rolling the release of a fully functional demand-side platform that could serve mobile ads across its ecosystem of apps. There have been numerous Apple critics, including Meta, which have said the company shut down data sharing on iPhones and Safari web browsers, and now has its own ad business. As Google is under the spotlight, making similar moves restricting data sharing on Chrome and Android devices, Apple will see an opening to get aggressive with its ad business. Also, once Google is done with cookies on Chrome, the next big shakeup will come to Android devices. In 2024, the conversation will shift to Google’s mobile ecosystem, and developers and marketers will see a repeat of what happened on iPhones when Apple turned on app-tracking transparency measures. The privacy-versus-advertising fight is only getting started.

Ad tech in 2024—predictions on AI, TikTok, Netflix, Google and more

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