GroupM predicts 7.8% global ad spending growth in 2024

Global advertising revenue will grow 7.8% to $989.8 billion in 2024, according to GroupM’s Global Mid-Year Forecast, a significant increase from the WPP agency’s initial 5.3% growth prediction. GroupM also predicted the global ad industry will surpass the $1 trillion revenue mark in 2025, rising 6.8% to $1.1 trillion—one year earlier than the agency had previously forecast. The increases in total revenue for these years are largely due to revised forecasts for China, which GroupM now estimates will record $199.4 billion in 2024, as opposed to $148.2 billion. Ad Age Small Agency Conference & Awards Join us July 23 & 24 in Boston Learn more here “The story of globalization is key here,” said Kate Scott-Dawkins, global president, business intelligence at GroupM, noting that technological breakthroughs in areas such as AI have helped large companies scale their businesses internationally. “The expanding globalization opportunities for Chinese advertising, manufacturers and companies, helped by what was a bit of a slower year last year, really is impacting the global flow of advertising and revenue.” GroupM also revised its estimate for the U.S., where it expects ad revenue to reach $365.9 billion, up 5.8% over $345.9 billion in 2023 (excluding the impact of political advertising in both years). That aligns roughly with a forecast from Brian Wieser, founder of consultancy Madison and Wall, who shared data with Ad Age that predicts 6.3% growth to $379 billion in 2024. The U.S. ad market, excluding political advertising, grew by 10.1% during the first quarter, according to Wieser. That was higher than his initial projection of 8%, leading Wieser to forecast 6.7% growth in the second quarter. But Wieser expects U.S. growth to slow to 4% by the last three months of the year, as spending from companies such as Temu and Shein, which bolstered spending in the fourth quarter of 2023, may abate. Areas of growth Digital pure-play advertising will comprise 70.6% of total ad revenue in 2024, totaling $699 billion, according to GroupM. By 2029, that figure is expected to climb to 74.9%, or $985.6 billion. Retail media remains the fastest growing segment of digital, forecasted to grow by 17.5% in 2024 and 13.5% in 2025, as retailers seek to capitalize on their customer data sets. Connected TV’s outlook (CTV) has “improved considerably” since GroupM’s December forecast, as the agency has moved some YouTube revenue into its CTV category “to better reflect how clients are thinking about their media allocations and alternatives,” it said in its latest report. CTV is expected to reach $38.3 billion in ad revenue for 2024. It’s tracking to grow 20.1% this year, up from 16.1% growth in 2023, with a further 17.6% increase in 2025, GroupM said in its report. AI predictions In April 2022, GroupM estimated that 44% of ad revenue, excluding creative production, was enabled or informed in some way by AI—which is expected to rise to more than 90% by 2032. Now, the agency estimates that 69.5% of revenue will be informed by AI in 2024, with the figure reaching 94.1% by 2029. 40 under 40 entries are open The final deadline for nominations is Aug. 2 Enter here While GroupM’s model still excludes creative production, the agency said in its report that companies are using AI to enhance creativity. Some audio companies, for instance, are using the technology to help advertisers create scripts and creative for campaigns.

GroupM predicts 7.8% global ad spending growth in 2024

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