2025 US ad growth forecast lowered due to Trump policies

Domestic advertising revenue growth in 2025 will likely be more tepid than previously expected, and that’s due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies, according to a new forecast from consultancy Madison and Wall. On Tuesday, the firm led by industry analyst Brian Wieser lowered its 2025 ad revenue growth forecast to 3.6%, excluding political advertising spend, down from its prediction for 4.5% growth made in December. That 4.5% growth prediction was already a decrease from the firm’s prior forecast calling for 5.3% growth. Wieser wrote that the revision is due to Trump’s imposed tariffs that restrict free trade, proposed travel bans that could limit foreign workers, “as well as an increased reliance on the idiosyncratic preferences of the president rather than the more predictable institutionally-driven policy-making processes businesses have historically relied upon in the United States.” Data-Driven Marketing Playbook Join us May 22 in NYC to explore how data powers marketing Learn more here “By now, nearly three months into the year, what we can see is a certainty of additional negative factors, including volatility around trade policies and a more extreme threat to supply chains and corporate decision-making than we previously expected,” Wieser wrote in the report. Wieser said these policies have a “wide range of consequences for companies” that will in turn be more cautious with their investments including marketing, as well as consumers, “who shift their resources in order to prepare for negative economic scenarios.” He wrote that growth will likely be slightly stronger in the first half of 2025 than in the second half of the year, “in part because the full consequences of government policy changes won’t be experienced right away.” Meanwhile, Madison and Wall said advertising growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 came in at 6%, excluding political advertising, which was slightly lower than the 7% the firm had predicted. Growth in the first three quarters of 2024 averaged around 10%, per the firm, and advertising in total grew by 8.6% last year, per the firm. “Although this growth rate isn’t terrible in historical terms, it is below what the industry has become accustomed to, where growth rates were unsustainable,” Wieser wrote. “Moreover, if inflation is as elevated as we expect it to be, it implies limited real growth during this time horizon.” Looking ahead, the firm predicts underlying annual growth of around 3.5% over the next few years, “as the economy adjusts to new policies, or slightly softer versus prior expectations to reflect the generally-more-negative trajectory of the last couple of months.” “For the present time, we expect a similarly downgraded range at least through 2027 as the economy adjusts to new policies, followed by some acceleration after 2028 associated with the Olympics to be held in Los Angeles that year,” Wieser wrote. Also: Mortgage brand Pennymac sets Olympics sponsorship Q4 numbers by medium Digital media platforms continued to perform well in the fourth quarter of 2024, up 10.9%, excluding political advertising, for the quarter and up by 13.9%, excluding political advertising, for the entire year, per Madison and Wall. The firm reported search was up 13.3% for the fourth quarter and up 15.8% for the year, while social media was up 17.5% for the quarter and 17.4% for the year. Commerce media sustained good growth—Madison and Wall reported commerce, primarily Amazon but also including Walmart and others in retail media, grew their revenues by 14.8% during the fourth quarter and 17.2% during 2024. National TV including CTV was down 0.9% for the fourth quarter and up 1.7% for the year, excluding political advertising in both periods. Still, Wieser wrote that those numbers did not “feel quite so positive to everyone in that business, as the entities which own nationally-oriented broadcast properties (and, usually, streaming products, too) fell by 3.4% during the quarter and 1.1% for the year.” The purely digital platforms with TV inventory including “Amazon, Netflix, Roku and others took share, growing by 24% in the quarter and 31% for the year to represent 13% of all national TV spending during 2024,” Wieser wrote.More: Netflix’s WWE ‘Raw’ and what buyers seek in brand deals

2025 US ad growth forecast lowered due to Trump policies

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