GOP massively dominates ad spending in 4 out of 5 top 2022 gubernatorial races

Republicans are massively outspending Democrats when it comes to political advertising in four out of the top five gubernatorial races in the U.S., according to the latest Ad Age Campaign Ad Scorecard analysis. Campaign Ad Scorecard is part of Ad Age’s Campaign Trail coverage, a project of Ad Age Datacenter, led by Director of Data Management Kevin Brown in partnership with Kantar/CMAG. Join us in print and online at AdAge.com/CampaignTrail. An executive summary of—and essential context for—the charts below: • Among the five states—Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois, Alabama and Nebraska—with the highest ad spending so far on gubernatorial campaigns across TV, radio and digital, $49.9 million has been spent by Republicans vs. $8.2 million by Democrats. Those figures tally booked spending by campaigns and the political action committees that support them from Dec. 28, 2021, through Election Day as of Feb. 16, 2022. (As we note in the fine print below, some candidates and political action committees began spending—some significantly—in 2021, but for the purposes of our analysis, we’re tracking all candidates’ spending from Dec. 28 forward.) Scroll down below the chart for our state-by-state analysis. Subscribe to Ad Age Datacenter for essential data and insights on all of the most-advertised brands. Top five states by media spending in gubernatorial races Term limits and one big PAC may flip Pennsylvania. First they have to win the primary. Dollars in millions. Media spending State Democrats Republicans Total Top spenders Pennsylvania $0.0 $17.8 $17.8 Bill McSwain and Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) 1 Texas 0.0 11.3 11.3 Greg Abbott (R) Illinois 5.8 3.2 9.0 JB Pritzker (D) Alabama 0.0 6.4 6.4 Lindy Blanchard (R) Nebraska 0.0 4.0 4.0 Brett Lindstrom (R) All other 2.3 7.3 9.6 Total $8.2 $49.9 $58.0 Top markets by media spending Where the money's going in three big states. Dollars in millions. State/market Media spending Pennsylvania Pittsburgh $5.4 Philadelphia 4.6 Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York 3.1 Texas Dallas-Fort Worth $2.7 Houston 2.5 San Antonio 1.1 Illinois Chicago $5.2 Champaign-Springfield-Decatur 0.9 St. Louis, Mo. 0.8 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending (booked or spent) for TV, radio and digital ads between Dec. 28, 2021, and Election Day as of Feb. 16, 2022. Some candidates and PACs had begun spending—some significantly—in 2021. The Pennsylvania primary is May 17. The Illinois primary is June 28. The Texas primary is March 1. 1) The total reflects spending by candidate Bill McSwain and the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, a PAC. Each entity spends independently and together, and are likely charged different rates. • In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has term-limited out. Attorney General Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee. Among Republicans, there are a dozen candidates seeking the party’s nomination, but one stands out in terms of ad spending: William “Bill” McSwain, who formerly served as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. He has the backing of Commonwealth Leaders Fund, a powerful Pennsylvania PAC. Republicans have spent $17.8 million on advertising across TV, radio and digital during our measurement window—the nation’s highest tally so far in a 2022 gubernatorial race—and the bulk of that spending is courtesy of the McSwain campaign together with Commonwealth. McSwain & Co. are spending heavily to help him break out of the pack in advance of the primary on May 17. Democrats, meanwhile, are holding their ad fire, having spent effectively nothing so far during the primary season. • In Texas, Republicans have spent $11.3 million on advertising across TV, radio and digital during our measurement window—the nation’s second-highest tally so far in a 2022 gubernatorial race—led by incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. He’s looking to fend off seven Republican challengers, as well as Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who has recently been polling ahead of four fellow Dems who are also seeking the party’s nomination. The Texas gubernatorial primary is on March 1, with a primary runoff slated for May 24. O’Rourke and the other Democrat gubernatorial candidates have been effectively holding their ad fire while the Republicans duke it out. That said, we have detected a tiny bit of Democratic ad spending in the Texas gubernatorial race, but it’s by a small PAC, OurTexas, that is anti-Abbott. Join us on March 10 for our free Ad Age In-Depth: Unlocking the Metaverse virtual event. • In Illinois, Democrats are ahead of Republicans—$5.8 million vs. $3.2 million in terms of ad spending across TV, radio and digital during our measurement window—the nation’s third-highest tally so far in a 2022 gubernatorial race. Incumbent Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker is the top spender—no surprise, given that he’s a billionaire member of the Pritzker family behind the Hyatt Hotels Corp. Meanwhile, fellow billionaire Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of the Citadel hedge fund, has said that he intends to pour money into the Illinois gubernatorial race to oust Pritzer and bring in a Republican. The top Republican ad spender so far is Richard Irvin, the mayor of Aurora. The Illinois primary is slated for June 28. • In Alabama, Democrats have so far effectively spent nothing on TV, radio and digital during our measurement window, while Republicans lead with $6.4 million—the nation’s fourth-highest tally so far in a 2022 gubernatorial race. Republican Gov. Kay Ivey is the Alabama incumbent, and she’s facing challenges from eight other declared Republican candidates, including Lynda “Lindy” Blanchard, who was the U.S. ambassador to Slovenia under Trump, and is currently the top ad spender in the gubernatorial race. Meanwhile, six Democrats are seeking their party’s nomination. The primary is set for May 24 with a runoff slated for June 21. Submissions are now open for Ad Age’s Small Agency Awards. • In Nebraska, incumbent Republican Governor Pete Ricketts has term-limited out. So far, Republicans have spent $4 million on advertising across TV, radio and digital during our measurement window—the nation’s fifth-highest tally so far in a 2022 gubernatorial race—and the bulk of that spending is courtesy of Brett Lindstrom, a state senator and one of eight Republicans who have thrown their hats in the ring. As for the Democrats, so far only one—Carol Blood, a state senator—has joined the race, and her campaign has effectively spent nothing on advertising to date. The primary is set for May 10. • It’s important to note that Donald Trump looms large over several of the races above. Bill McSwain was U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania because Trump appointed him to that role—and in June of last year, McSwain wrote a letter to Trump that read, in part, “President Trump, you were right to be upset about the way the Democrats ran the 2020 election in Pennsylvania—it was a partisan disgrace.” (Trump liked the letter so much he posted it on his website here.) In Texas, Trump has already declared his support for Greg Abbott—although things could soon get complicated on that front; see: “Some Trump allies want him to pull his endorsement of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of GOP primary,” per CNBC. In Nebraska, Politico declared last year, “The question isn’t whether Nebraska Republican candidates must embrace Trump. It’s how tightly.” And in Alabama, well, here’s a Birmingham News headline from Nov. 19: “Trump reportedly offers Lynda Blanchard endorsement against Kay Ivey if she’ll drop Alabama Senate run.” (Yes, Blanchard was running for the U.S. Senate before she was running for Alabama governor.) And here’s a Birmingham News headline from Dec. 7: “Former Trump ambassador switches to governor’s race.” (It’s no secret that Trump doesn’t like Ivey and so he hopes that Blanchard can out-run her.) In a recent Blanchard campaign ad (below), an announcer sums up the candidate thusly: “Driven by faith, trusted by President Trump.” Subscribe to Ad Age Datacenter for essential data and insights on all of the most-advertised brands.

GOP massively dominates ad spending in 4 out of 5 top 2022 gubernatorial races

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