Midterm political ads hit $4.7 billion (so far)—key data points and takeaways

Congratulations to the true 2022 midterm winners: Georgia media owners and operators. TV station owners and operators, especially. The Peach State was already home to the single most ad-soaked, spendy race of the midterms—in which candidate U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), spent $74 million on political advertising (excluding PAC and party spending), according to the latest Ad Age Campaign Ad Scorecard analysis. And given that both he and his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, failed to get 50% of the vote, forcing them into a runoff, Georgia will surely see tens of millions of dollars of additional ad spending in the weeks leading up to the bonus Dec. 6 election. That’s on top of the $228 million—$123 million by Democrats and $101 million by Republicans—already spent on media by candidates, PACs and parties (including primary spending) on Georgia’s U.S. Senate race. (It remains to be seen if the fact that the Democrats have already clinched control of the Senate will dampen the GOP’s enthusiasm for Walker.) While we had hoped this would be the final Campaign Ad Scorecard of the 2022 midterms, we will once again be issuing overtime editions. (You’ll recall that Georgia was the scene of two U.S. Senate runoff elections on Jan. 5 of last year, with Democrat Jon Ossoff ultimately beating incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. David Perdue, and Warnock ultimately beating incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler. Confusingly, Loeffler was appointed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp as the interim replacement for Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson, who resigned for health reasons in December 2019, so Warnock won what was technically a special election to serve out what would have been the rest of Isakson’s term. Warnock is running against Walker in a regular election for a full six-year term.)Read more of Ad Age's Campaign Trail coverage Major races ad spending by party Dollars in millions. Media spending RaceDemocratRepublicanOtherTotal U.S. Senate$738$797$22$1,558 U.S. House60756311,171 Governor539588111,138 Other143108632883 Total$2,027$2,057$666$4,750 Meanwhile, here’s where we stand so far: • Total campaign media spending for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial and other key races in the U.S. midterm elections hit $4.7 billion, per an Ad Age Campaign Ad Scorecard tally that includes TV, radio and digital advertising from Dec. 28, 2021, through Election Day. Campaign Ad Scorecard is part of Ad Age’s Campaign Trail coverage, a project of Ad Age Datacenter, led by Director of Data Management Kevin Brown in partnership with Kantar/CMAG. • Republicans and Democrats have rough parity—$2.027 billion vs. $2.057 billion, respectively—in their ad-spending contributions to the $4.7 billion total. (Independents and issue-oriented advertising, such as ballot initiatives, account for another $666 million.) But Republicans outspent Democrats on U.S. Senate races ($797 million vs. $738 million) and gubernatorial races ($588 million vs. $539 million). Democrats, meanwhile, outspent Republicans on U.S. House races ($607 million vs. $563 million.) • The campaign ad spending by one of the biggest gubernatorial-race winners, Florida’s Ron DeSantis, came to $58 million, almost entirely from the Republican Party of Florida. The Republican governor not only won reelection, but his victory has cemented his embrace by conservative media outlets, including Fox News, as a potential post-Trump standard-bearer for the GOP and a likely 2024 presidential candidate. Top five ad spenders in Florida's gubernatorial election Dollars in milllions. Sponsor (party)Media spending Republican Party of Florida$57 Charlie Crist (D) 7 Florida Democratic Party (D)5 Friends of Charlie Crist3 Nikki Fried (D) 2 Other2 Total$76 • U.S. Senate race ad spending sits at $1.6 billion. • Of that $1.6 billion, candidates spent 42%, while PACs and the two major political parties spent 58%—though spending by Republican PACs skewed the proportions. While Democratic campaigns accounted for 49% of ad spending vs. 51% by PACs together with the Democratic Party, Republican campaigns accounted for just 35% of spending, vs. 65% spent by PACs together with the GOP. • The six U.S. Senate races that have racked up more than $100 million in ad spending all happened in the most predictable of places: swing states—specifically, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada. The U.S. Senate races in just those six states racked up more than $1 billion in campaign ad spending. • Kantar/CMAG recently raised its total ad spending forecast for the midterms to $9 billion—which includes ad outlays for additional campaigns and media beyond the nationally significant races that Ad Age Datacenter tracks. As Kantar/CMAG’s Steve Passwaiter noted in an Oct. 9 Ad Age guest post, good old-fashioned TV is still getting the lion’s share of the windfall, though digital platforms continue to rise. Per Kantar’s forecast, the $9 billion will break down to: $4.6 billion for local broadcast TV, $1.4 billion for OTT (over the top), $1.5 billion for local cable TV/satellite, $1.2 billion for Facebook and Google and $300 million for local radio. Candidates versus PACs and parties Media spending in U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial races. Dollars in millions. Media spending Sponsor typeDemocratRepublicanOtherTotal Candidate$917$679$13$1,609 PACs and parties9671,270212,258 Total$1,884$1,948$34$3,867 As percent of party media spending in U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial races. Percent of party spending Sponsor typeDemocratRepublicanOtherTotal Candidate49%35%39%42% PACs and parties51656158 Total100100100100 Six big PACs/parties accounted for 17% of spending Dollars in milllions. PAC or partyMedia spending Congressional Leadership Fund (R)$189 Senate Leadership Fund (R)187 Congressional Leadership Fund (R)140 House Majority PAC (D)135 Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) (D)88 National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) (R)86 Total$825 Five candidates who spent the most (so far) Dollars in milllions. Candidate, race (incumbent),(party)Media spending Raphael Warnock, U.S. Senate (i), Georgia (D)$74 Mark Kelly, U.S. Senate (i), Arizona (D)49 JB Pritzker, governor (i), Illinois (D)47 Rick Caruso, mayor, Los Angeles (D)47 Greg Abbott, governor (i), Texas (R)45 Total$263 Candidates, parties and PACs aired ads 4.9 million times Campaigns for governor ran the most ads. Airings in thousands. Number of ad airings RaceDemocratRepublicanOtherTotal Governor837965271,829 U.S. Senate799828141,640 U.S. House75365231,409 Total2,3892,446444,878 Source: Media spending and ad airing counts from Kantar/CMAG. Spending (booked or spent) for TV, radio and digital ads between Dec. 28, 2021, and Election Day as of Nov. 8, 2022. Some candidates and PACs had begun spending, some significantly, in 2021. Spending shown by candidate excludes PACs. The count of airings includes repeated ads.

Midterm political ads hit $4.7 billion (so far)—key data points and takeaways

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