Ad forecasters predict U.S. ad spending will grow in 2022 and 2023 despite economic headwinds and talk of a looming recession.
WPP’s GroupM (This Year Next Year, June 2022) forecasts U.S. ad growth, including political ads, of 12.8% in 2022 (with a surge in midterm elections spending) and 2.6% in 2023. Factoring out political ads, GroupM forecasts U.S. ad growth of 9.3% in 2022 and 6.0% in 2023.
Publicis Groupe’s Zenith (Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, June 2022) predicts U.S. major media spending growth of 11.6% in 2022, boosted by the Winter Olympics and political spending, and 4.5% in 2023.
Spending for media and entertainment companies is growing. First-quarter 2022 worldwide sales-and-marketing spending rose 41%, 29% and 16% at DraftKings, Alphabet and Meta, respectively, vs. the same period a year ago. Comcast boosted first-quarter advertising, marketing and promotion spending by 28%.
Travel spending continues to grow amid a recovery in leisure and business travel, with a 149% increase in first-quarter marketing spending at Booking Holdings (Booking.com, Priceline).
There are caution signs in financial services. LoanDepot last year boosted ad and marketing spending 77%, but it cut first-quarter spending 7% amid rising interest rates and slumping demand for mortgages (and a plunging stock price, which is down 96% from its 2021 post-initial public offering peak). Mortgage provider Rocket Cos. last year increased ad and marketing spending 32%, but first-quarter spending edged up just 2%.
Insurance venture SelectQuote raised ad and marketing spending 7% in the first three months of 2022—after doubling spending in fiscal 2021. Insurer Progressive Corp. cut first-quarter ad spending 8% following a 1.7% reduction in 2021.
One financial firm is charging ahead: Capital One Financial Corp. in 2021 increased estimated U.S. marketing spending by 83%. In first-quarter 2022, Capital One’s marketing spending rose again—by another 83%.