Amazon expects the NFL to draw 12.5 million viewers on Thursday nights when it starts streaming the games exclusively next month, which is a smaller audience than when it aired on broadcast TV, according to top ad agency execs with direct knowledge of Amazon’s sales pitch.

Some potential sponsors were concerned about the smaller audience. Although NFL has a reputation as a powerhouse draw on broadcast TV, the product is going to a streaming service, where not all consumers know to find it. But there are benefits to streaming: Amazon is working closely with sponsors to integrate NFL ad buys into its wider e-commerce ads platform, and Amazon has first-party data on consumers that could provide added value, ad agency execs said.  

“Amazon took estimates down pretty significantly versus what there was out there from Fox [last year],” said one top sports media buying exec from a major ad agency, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But we feel good about it from a value standpoint.”

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Another ad buyer said that the overall price of a commercial on Amazon’s NFL games was lower than Fox’s from last year, noting a 30-second ad in the games is fetching about $500,000. Fox averaged $635,439 for a 30-second spot in "Thursday Night Football" last season, according to Ad Age's annual TV pricing survey. 

Last year, NFL viewership hit 20 million on the most-watched Thursday game, not including the Thanksgiving Day games. The low was 10 million on Thursday, last year. During the 2021 regular season, NFL games represented 48 of the top 50 TV broadcasts, according to the NFL, and averaged audiences of 17.1 million viewers on TV and digital. 

“Moving 'Thursday Night Football' to Amazon was a monumental shift in sports media that aligns with shifting consumer behavior patterns favoring streaming content,” said a second executive at a top media buying agency. “That said, I think many marketers are waiting to see how successful this new space will be for the NFL before going all-in on sponsorships.”

Amazon declined to comment about exact viewership estimates for Thursday Night Football. In an email statement, an Amazon spokesperson pointed to the fact that “there are 80 million active Prime Video households in the U.S.” The spokesperson also said there were ways brands could reach customers who view Thursday Night Football on other parts of the Amazon platform. “The TNF digital broadcast gives brands new ways to connect with fans at scale through interactive features, Twitch, and alternate feeds,” Amazon’s spokesperson said in the email. “And a unique combination of first- and third-party metrics enable advertisers to reengage TNF audiences across Amazon.com, Freevee, and other customer touchpoints.”

The NFL declined to comment for this story.

The company has not yet released the full slate of sponsors. Amazon has made the NFL deal a centerpiece of its streaming video services, which include Prime Video, Twitch, Fire TV, and the ad-supported Freevee app. Amazon paid an estimated $1 billion per year to become the exclusive streaming partner, producing 15 weeks of "Thursday Night Football" for the next 11 seasons. The NFL and Amazon have made significant pitches to sponsors throughout the year, including at industry events like the IAB digital NewFronts in May.

Amazon’s partnership with the NFL represents one of the biggest realignments in sports viewing, pitting traditional broadcast TV against the streaming video revolution. Amazon is putting together a top lineup of commentators and hosts, including Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit, who will call the games on Prime Video. There is an array of former NFL talent and celebrities who will join pre- and post-game coverage, including former players Richard Sherman and Tony Gonzalez. Amazon also picked up hosts for alternative streams, where viewers will watch the game with different announcers, including the members of the internet famous Dude Perfect. 

Amazon is using Nielsen to measure the audience, according to ad execs. Amazon will share a P2-plus rating, which is the number of viewers aged 2 and up. 

Advertisers typically like fuller breakdowns of audiences based on ages, sex and location. Amazon is making up for any rating blind spots by using data within its own platform, an ad exec said. Amazon has detailed consumer insights about its audience, which is one of the perks and promises of the platform. “We have a lot of clients that are interested in NFL, that are interested in the long-term value proposition with Amazon,” the ad exec said. “And they do have a different value proposition than you get from legacy broadcast.”

Some advertisers are concerned about the potential of lower ratings, but they are willing to go with Amazon to get in on the ground floor. “We want to be out there in a big way with this partnership,” the agency exec said. “We want incumbent positions when we move forward with this thing.”

Amazon has asked some brands to commit to ad packages valued at close to $30 million, Ad Age reported in February. The agency exec said that most deals were valued at substantially less than that. Of the agency's clients that classify as potential NFL sponsors, about 75% of those signed on with Amazon, this exec said. The remaining clients—would-be potential NFL sponsors—were interested but could wait to participate by buying inventory closer to airdate in the so-called "scatter" marketplace. 

A third agency exec, who is in the process of negotiating deals with Amazon for the upcoming season, said that the NFL’s move to Amazon is similar to how college football playoffs moved to ESPN’s cable channels a decade ago. “At the time the thinking was everyone has ESPN, but they really didn’t and couldn’t match the reach of broadcast,” the exec said. “We’re in a different day and age. Broadcast doesn’t have the reach it used to. But Amazon Prime is in a similar boat to ESPN, where everyone has it, yes, but does everyone use it for video.”