The surge of political ad dollars flowing to media has caused Kantar/CMAG to raise its spending estimate to $9 billion, which would be a new record for political dollars in a midterm election with respect to local broadcast TV, local cable TV/satellite, local OTT (over-the-top), Facebook, Google and radio. The new estimate tallies $4.6 billion for local broadcast TV, $1.4 billion for OTT, $1.5 billion for local cable TV/satellite, $1.2 billion for Facebook and Google and $300 million for local radio.
What’s causing this record spending? Close competition in the Senate and House. We’re 50/50 in the Senate, and the Democrats have a narrow nine-seat lead in the House. Money for ads can’t be spent unless there’s fundraising to support it, and both parties have maximized their prowess in recent years, adding digital components to their efforts. That’s opened the door for anyone that wants to donate at any level, and there are a lot of people that want to contribute based on what we’re seeing this year.
The two parties are airing ads with distinct subjects. Most Democratic ads highlight the dangers of the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court, cautioning what that could ultimately mean to reproductive rights if Republicans take Congress. For Republicans, ads focus on economic issues, blaming Democratic spending for the spike in inflation. Democrats also talk about inflation, but that’s being shaped by ads accusing corporations of price gouging and suggesting they are holding them accountable. There are also references to the recent legislation Democrats passed allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription prices, illustrating another way they are working to lower inflation.