Political ad spending—Biden’s rocky debate shifts presidential campaign dynamics

Whether President Joe Biden should remain the Democratic nominee for president has been the subject of nonstop news coverage. At his debate with former President Donald Trump June 27, Biden had difficulty communicating and often rambled incoherently, a performance that transformed the race. Trump’s campaign had previously been rocked by his May conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records in a scheme to influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels. But the verdict was followed by a flood of contributions, allowing Trump—once far behind in the cash sweepstakes—to catch up to Biden. Biden had been comfortably ahead in the fundraising game, an advantage he expected to carry through to November. As of June 30, Trump has $285 million on hand, ahead of Biden’s $240 million—even though Biden outraised Trump in June, $127 million to $112 million. 40 under 40 entries are open The final deadline for nominations is Aug. 2 Enter here Over the last few days, however, some Democratic donors are closing their checkbooks—even threatening to withhold donations to down-ballot Democratic candidates—unless Biden withdraws. The president has steadfastly refused. What to do with Biden’s candidacy has severely divided Democrats. Unless he has a change of heart, Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee. If so, former Democratic aides and past and current officeholders fear a landslide victory for Trump. Pressure on Biden to withdraw will increase. Watch what the donors do. Democratic campaign ad spending After the debate, the Biden campaign announced an additional $50 million ad buy in swing states and an aggressive travel schedule to help reset the campaign. Since January 1, the Democrats have committed more than $300 million to the presidential race—a number that includes broadcast, cable, satellite and Spanish language TV, as well as radio and an estimate for CTV spending. Almost $150 million of that figure is reserved for the period following Labor Day. FF PAC continues to be the largest Democratic advertiser in the presidential race, with almost $150 million. Spending by Biden’s campaign is second place with $100 million. A total of 41 different Democratic advertisers have taken part. Republican campaign ad spending Despite a more active primary season, Republican spending is lower. Republicans have committed just north of $200 million with two pro-Trump SuperPACs leading the way. The Make America Great PAC and the Miriam Edelson-funded Preserve America PAC have committed roughly $80 million and $50 million, respectively. The Preserve America group just announced a $61 million buy that will cover the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania during the Olympics and will run through Labor Day. Trump’s campaign has committed just less than $10 million although both the campaign and PACs are expected to launch significant media buys in the weeks following the Republican convention. So far, there have been 25 different Republican presidential advertisers. What unfolds in the presidential race will impact the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, which are also up for grabs this year. Since both chambers are almost divided evenly, each toss-up race can have a major impact on the outcomes. U.S. Senate The battle for the Senate comes down to the reelection efforts of incumbents in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Montana and Nevada. See all of the Global Automotive Marketing Awards winners here The Arizona seat, open following independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision not to run, is being contested by Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake, the former Phoenix newscaster and 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate. President Biden’s troubles might hurt his chances in Michigan and New Mexico, which are both races to watch. As of July 10, Ohio is the leader in Senate campaign spending, fueled partially by a noisy Republican primary. The race between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno, a conservative outsider and businessman, is approaching $300 million in committed spending. It’s a record for Ohio. Media owners in Ohio, who had been disappointed in the Buckeye State’s diminished role in the presidential race, have to be thrilled with how large this race has become. The blockbuster race in Montana between Democratic Sen. John Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy, a businessman and ex-Navy SEAL, has shattered spending records. The $175 million in campaign ad spending so far has eclipsed the nearly $160 million spent in the 2020 Senate matchup between GOP Sen. Steve Daines and former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. TV time in Montana is scarce and expensive, according to media buyers. We’ll see if Tester can again defy odds and hang onto this seat. Republican ads have focused on how much of the Biden agenda has gotten Tester’s vote. Tester is again citing where he’s differed with his party and how out of touch Washington is with Montana. It’s an old tactic by Tester but it’s worked well for him. Will it work again? Ticket splitting has become so rare. Pennsylvania is the center of the political universe this year as it plays a massive role in the battle for the White House and the Senate. The race between Democratic Sen. Robert Casey Jr. and Republican Dave McCormick, a businessman and former under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs, is crawling up the spending chart and is nearing $185 million. Ad Age Small Agency Conference & Awards Join us July 23 & 24 in Boston Learn more here Again, the fate of Casey might rest on what happens with Biden. In the other key Senate races, spending commitments are: U.S. House of Representatives The big stories in June were primary losses for two incumbents. In New York, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman lost badly to Westchester County Executive George Latimer. In Virginia, Republican Rep. Bob Good lost narrowly to State Sen. John McGwire in a close race. Good has asked for a recount. The primary battle between Bowman and Latimer was the most expensive of the year, with $25 million in spending. The AIPAC-backed United Democracy Project spent $15m to help defeat Bowman, who in turn was supported by $1 million from Justice Democrats. Good, leader of the House Freedom Caucus, ran afoul of Trump with his endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s presidential primary bid. Trump, in turn, endorsed McGwire. And advertisers affiliated with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Good played a role in ousting McCarthy as speaker) put money behind McGwire. The outcomes in November could be entirely in the hands of the president, who seems more isolated from his party with each passing day. Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs

Political ad spending—Biden’s rocky debate shifts presidential campaign dynamics

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