NewFronts 2024 predictions—TikTok, Google, Meta and Snap battle

The video ad markets are open next week for the yearly deal-making presentations known as NewFronts, and Google, Meta, TikTok and Snap are the major platforms anchoring the event. Negotiations between internet ad platforms and advertisers will hinge on the key themes of ad technology, retail media, creators and content. This time around two of the key players, Google and TikTok, have behind-the-scenes issues to discuss with brands and agencies: Google just delayed the timeline to revamp its ad platform to work without cookies, and TikTok is fighting a newly signed bill in the U.S. that forces its Chinese parent company ByteDance to divest from the company or face a ban. The colliding forces in the industry are setting up the potential for yet another lively NewFronts market. Last year, the Hollywood writers’ strike disrupted upfront presentations, a separate but parallel event for traditional broadcast and streaming media giants. The strike led to a content drought in TV and movies. More news: 5 AI trends to watch for the 2024 TV upfront NewFronts, hosted by IAB, the ad industry trade group, begins Monday. The event coincides with a new milestone in advertising as digital video is expected to command more revenue than linear TV for the first time this year, according to a new IAB report. The report compared spending on linear TV, expected to grab 48% of ad revenue in the U.S., to online, social and connected TV video advertising, which combined are expected to capture 52% of the market. Digital video ad spend is expected to hit $62.9 billion in the U.S. this year, an increase of 16% from 2023, IAB said. The digital platforms will emphasize their ad tech, measurement capabilities and retail media connections, according to Chris Bruderle, VP of industry insights and content strategy at IAB. “A lot of [digital growth] has to do with social and online video, the fact that there's a lot of self-serve that can happen there,” Bruderle said. “That really helps drive ease of purchase there, ease of activation there.” Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs Google has already revealed that it will showcase its demand-side platform, called Display and Video 360, which advertisers use to place programmatic ads across the web and connected TV. Meanwhile, Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, and Snap are talking about short-form video and ad tech. TikTok will likely spend its NewFronts convincing advertisers of its long-term viability given the political environment around the app. Here are the key predictions for this year’s NewFronts. TikTok faces political pressure Last year, TikTok locked down access to its NewFront, which followed an appearance by CEO Shou Chew before the U.S. Congress. So, while the company is used to holding tentpole industry events while under the microscope, this year’s NewFront comes days after the U.S. passed a law saying ByteDance must sell the company or face a ban within a year. TikTok has vowed to fight the bill. Advertisers are still flocking to the app for trends and to reach Gen Z, but the uncertainty is bad for long-term ad commitments. “It is a hot spot for us,” said one ad agency media buyer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, referring to TikTok’s position. “We recognize the value of it in a media mix and we definitely want to continue to play in that area, but we do have to proceed with caution, and really we're on alert pretty much on a daily basis.” What is likely to save TikTok, for now, is the fact that rivals also face criticisms, whether that’s Google and Meta being hounded by regulators, or X’s nagging brand safety concerns. TikTok did not respond to a request for comment and has not publicly revealed where it is hosting its NewFront. Expect the company to emphasize its plans to fight the ban bill, and to highlight creators and businesses that thrive on the app. Ad Age’s marketing and creator guide to the TikTok ban bill Google promotes its DSP Google, which owns YouTube, has said it will focus on the ad tech side of the business during its NewFront. Google is in a demand-side platform battle with Amazon, which launched an ad-supported version of Prime Video this year, and with independent DSP The Trade Desk. Google has been bringing streaming partners into its ecosystem through Display and Video 360 and an advertising identity connection called PAIR—which stands for “publisher advertiser identity reconciliation.” Last year at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, Disney announced it would deploy PAIR as a mechanism to let advertisers target and measure ads through Google’s Display and Video 360, which also is the only DSP that has access to YouTube ad inventory. PAIR is one of the main ad tech tools Google built to assist publishers in the post-cookie transition. Google wants to phase out cookies as an ad tracker, but it has faced multiple delays in making that project work, which will also be an important subject at this year’s NewFront. Google will kick off the NewFront on Monday morning on a stage with NBCUniversal, which recently adopted PAIR, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery. Albertsons Media Collective and Mars Pet Nutrition U.S. will also be there. Retail media gets a stronger connected TV signal Speaking of Albertsons, retail media is still trying to crack the NewFronts code. Streaming video has been trying to incorporate shopping into the living room for years now. In past years, Walmart and Target have hosted NewFronts events. Last month, Home Depot held an upfront-style pitch, Ad Age reported. “[Retail media networks] and NewFronts have not been the best of friends, primarily because connected TV has been a hard nut to crack to the same degree we’ve been able to crack social, display and search,” said Evan Hovorka, VP of product and innovation at Albertsons Media Collective. “But some of those walls are coming down through partnership and new identity solutions.” LG Ad Solutions is also focused on shopping. “This is the year where shoppable hits the mainstream, and I think you'll hear it from us,” said Tony Marlow, chief marketing officer at LG Ad Solutions, “but I think you'll hear it from many corners of the industry, [TV manufacturers] and otherwise.” Vizio also hosts a NewFront. The TV manufacturer is in the middle of a sale to Walmart, which shows the crossover appeal of content and commerce. Read more about Walmart’s plan to buy Vizio Meta and Snap compete for short-form video share Both of these players are trying to snag the short-form video crown from TikTok. Meta has been infusing Reels, its algorithmically sorted, short videos, into Instagram and Facebook. Snap has Spotlight, and has been using this moment of uncertainty in the social media space to market itself as different from its rivals. In February, Snap launched a campaign with the tagline, “Less social media. More Snapchat.” The key for Meta and Snap is to show advertisers that they are making progress in creating platforms that have the same appeal as TikTok, which is known for serving a highly dynamic feed that hooks viewers. McDonald’s, BMW and Mini are slated to appear at Meta’s NewFront on Thursday, all discussing Reels campaigns. Snap has kept much of its agenda under wraps for now, but promises to unveil ways it’s driving measurement and results for brands. Snap will highlight “new opportunities we’ve created for advertisers to improve performance and connect with their audience,” Patrick Harris, Snap’s president of Americas, said in a statement to Ad Age, “especially through various passion points including music and sports.” NewFront, Upfront—all fronts NewFronts and Upfronts are getting more intertwined this year. It’s a trend that started with YouTube taking a spot during NewFront and Upfront week in 2022. This year, Amazon switched its showcase to an Upfront, and Netflix entered the advertising sales season last year with an Upfront. “You have this convergence of TV positioning themselves as social players and social players positioning themselves as TV players,” said Pamela Drucker Mann, global chief revenue officer and president of U.S. Revenue & International at Condé Nast. “That’s because these worlds are coming together more. People are streaming in social more than they are streaming anywhere else, including in their living rooms.” Condé Nast is at NewFronts again this year, urging marketers to buy social the way they would TV, Drucker Mann said. The publisher distributes across social media, including YouTube, Instagram and TikTok, and it has content plays on connected TV with free ad-supported channels and other deals. The publisher is focused on culture and content this year with properties, including Vogue, Vanity Fair, GQ, Wired, The New Yorker and more concerned about risks associated with some online environment, Drucker Mann said. Who better to know what’s in vogue right now, than Condé: “Consumers are not just watching Netflix, shock, and they’re not just spending time on Meta, and they’re not just watching the Olympics on NBC,” Drucker Mann said. “A lot of our announcements are really focused on the new series, the new pilots, that we’re making across all these different spaces, and how we’ve been able to simplify and productize how marketers can buy in.”

Predictions for NewFronts—TikTok, Google, Meta and Snap battle for ad dollars

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