Inside TV’s big data tipping point—how Nielsen’s shift could disrupt the upfronts

After years of debate, the TV industry’s shift to big data is at its tipping point. With the recent MRC accreditation for Nielsen’s Big Data + Panel product now in place—and its legacy panel-only measurement set to sunset in the fourth quarter—advertisers, media buyers and TV sellers are bracing for major change ahead of the upfront season. “It’s going to get ugly this upfront,” said one media buyer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, referring to the tension that’s simmering between TV sellers and media buyers over what the push into new currency will mean for dealmaking—particularly the pricing dynamics that often define the marketplace. Amid the complex shuffle of numbers, data and dollar signs, the shift to big data buying portends a drawn-out marketplace as buyers and sellers clash over how measurement changes impact the value of TV inventory. The tension could intensify pricing disputes, disrupt Wall Street growth narratives and further accelerate the decline of traditional cable buying. Data-Driven Marketing Playbook Join us May 22 in NYC to explore how data powers marketing Learn more here In removing the option to deal solely on Nielsen’s legacy panel, which media buyers previously told Ad Age had remained the primary currency in last year’s upfront, buyers and sellers have been forced to make the leap to transacting TV inventory on big data. And in evaluating the transition from one dataset to the next, the conversion isn’t always simple math. The new granularity of data from Nielsen’s 45 million cable and smart TV households added to its traditional 41,000 panel households will shift the viewership numbers it reports, even though the actual size of the audience has not necessarily changed. But calculating the difference between the panel-only counts and those shown in big data doesn’t equate to a consistent change across all networks, channels and platforms. For example, one agency measurement leader described big data as filling the gaps of limited panel-only data. As a result, Nielsen’s Big Data + Panel will show increased or decreased reported viewership numbers and require scrutiny of every comparison between panel and big data historical trends to determine pricing. Channels targeted to multicultural audiences, such as BET or Univision, might see higher lifts as greater visibility into historically under-counted groups is possible on Nielsen Big Data + Panel, the executive said. And within those comparisons, the lift to reported BET viewership may not be consistent across all dayparts, much less those on other Paramount-owned networks, and as a result, draw out negotiations with media companies as buyers and sellers evaluate the fair conversion of price for every daypart and channel. In theory, the process should all be a matter of math based on the differences, said the executive, although they recognized that isn’t necessarily how talks will play out in the marketplace. “Some [sellers] want to say that big data across all their networks and all the dayparts generated [a set percentage] more impressions, so therefore let’s just use that in the negotiation—but it’s not that simple,” said David Porter, head of ad sales research, data and insights at Warner Bros Discovery. Media measurement blog Tracking TV, social and digital updates Click here While Nielsen provides two years of historical data for its Big Data + Panel product for sellers and buyers to determine this year’s audience trends, Porter said the addition of new datasets, as well as changes to out-of-home measurement methodology during that time, plus last year being an election cycle, make the calculations much more complicated. “You can look back on it, you can use it, but it’s going to be wrong,” said Porter. “We have to figure out how we manage through that change, and that will play into rate of change and pricing negotiations” in this year’s upfront. A Nielsen spokesperson said Nielsen’s panel-only data will continue to be available for use for analytics beyond the end of its availability as currency. Price vs. value vs. story To be sure, Nielsen is not the only measurement provider on the big data menu for advertisers, although it is unique as the only MRC-accredited hybrid panel and big data offering. VideoAmp, iSpot and Comscore—the latter of which has MRC accreditation for big data household measurement—also offer products that can be used as currency, or the foundational data used for setting deal terms in the upfront marketplace. As advertisers have considered transitioning from Nielsen’s panel to any big data source in past years, an obstacle has been “if the value of the underlying media they’re getting is similar, and if the media company can adjust their pricing so it maintains value,” said one media ad sales executive. Although some advertisers have moved to adopt big data currencies previously, “it is my general impression from the market so far that there’s not a consistency in approach either across publishers or across holding companies—people are just really figuring this out,” said the media executive. “It’s going to be a chaotic upfront.” When setting upfront deals, media companies negotiate commitment volume and rate of change for pricing from the prior year’s deal with buyers on behalf of clients. This year, publishers and agencies will have to do both, but add negotiating the price and value of inventory associated with the change of metrics as well, said the media company executive. Negotiating deals with the added layer of transitioning currency “is around the value and the cost that we have to pay for [inventory], because if on the whole, viewership counts go up 6% or 7%, we can’t just increase all of our costs 6% or 7% and then pay inflation on top of that,” said a second media buyer. “Most of those people were always there watching, [Nielsen] just wasn't counting them. So now that cost can’t be passed along to us or our clients.” Determining what that means for price will depend on the difference of data. For many, big data has shown an increase in viewership numbers compared to Nielsen’s legacy panel measurement. Buyers and sellers would then need to determine the value of the inventory and calculate both the difference of its unit price as well as the standard inflation compared to last year. But in these cases, that would mean decreasing the CPM—a calculation of the cost of inventory per thousand viewers reached by an ad—to account for the price staying consistent despite the jump in audience counts. “At the end of the day, the measurement just holds the partner accountable to actual delivery so that they have a make-good component if all of a sudden no one watches [a show],” said the first buyer. “The unit cost is the unit cost despite CPMs going down or up based on Nielsen's new methodology…[the market tension] is really all about the story; it’s not about the reality of how the transaction takes place.” See all of Ad Age’s 2025 Agency A-List winners here But a media company’s “story,” as the buyer called it, has become increasingly important as Wall Street scrutiny on network groups and streamers has put greater emphasis on revenue growth. Media companies, as such, may be resistant to report CPM declines after this year’s upfront market, according to three buyers. Despite that, it will be difficult for media companies to justify unwarranted price increases solely due to the change in reporting, said the first buyer, adding that ultimately, this year’s upfront will make it clearer than ever what TV inventory remains valuable to advertisers and what isn’t worth the hubbub. Trouble in cable However, an opposite effect is impacting some network groups’ businesses. Some cable-dominant companies have seen their audience numbers plummet in the transition to Nielsen’s Big Data + Panel. In the case of Hallmark Media, a third media buyer said that certain channels have shown more than a 30% decline in audience counts in the conversion. “Our research team has been monitoring Nielsen Big Data trends versus panel data over the past year and has contacted Nielsen to address the growing differences between these measurements,” said Tom Ziangas, senior VP of research and strategic insights at Hallmark Media, in response. “The year-over-year declines are troubling across many networks, including Hallmark Media. We are still waiting for Nielsen’s response to our questions and concerns.” As such, CPMs for Hallmark inventory would need to increase substantially to maintain the value of buys previously made on Nielsen’s panel. But in this case, media buyers may be the ones resistant to the conversion to avoid reporting CPM increases to clients who expect advantageous pricing from them in the upfront marketplace. The first buyer said that it shouldn’t be difficult to relay the reason for the increases to clients. But the real danger for impacted cable network groups isn’t at the negotiation table, according to the buyer. Instead, advertisers’ media mix models, which inform planning by calculating the price of inventory versus its performance, may remove these networks from future media plans due to the CPM increasing disproportionately to the media’s performance. A Nielsen spokesperson told Ad Age that the switch to Big Data + Panel is not expected to deliver large shifts and that the company is working with clients who have raised concerns, including Hallmark. Data-Driven Marketing Playbook Join us May 22 in NYC to explore how data powers marketing Learn more here Although cable viewership is declining as consumers leave traditional cable bundles, “Hallmark has done a great job distributing their content everywhere from a streaming perspective,” said the first buyer. “So it’s not that they don’t have the audience or the impressions, it is really about their go-to-market story and how they [combat] legacy thinking. Parallel markets As TV measurement evolves, two conversations are happening in parallel: one around advanced advertising—buying based on granular audience segments across linear, streaming and digital platforms—and another centered on traditional age-and-gender demos. The latter still underpins legacy TV trading and remains fundamental to high-reach inventory like live sports, which dominates the upfront market. While Nielsen’s Big Data + Panel transition plays in the realm of demos where the company has long held dominance, the advanced audience marketplace has been multicurrency for much longer, with two media ad sales executives putting VideoAmp in the lead while they’re still testing Nielsen’s product. And generally, the share of inventory that is transacted on advanced audiences is taking up greater shares of TV buying versus broad demos, said WBD’s Porter. A fourth media buyer said that they plan to transact all of their upfront inventory exclusively on VideoAmp data for the second year in a row as their clients prioritize advanced audience targeting. And as advertisers continue to shift spending to streaming, the best solution for measuring viewership on the platform has yet to emerge. But in recent upfront marketplaces, more advertisers are mixing the use of demo-based and advanced audience buying, said the first media ad sales executive, noting that “we’ve seen clients move back and forth over the course of the year within upfront commitments.” As the various measurement providers race to improve the sides of their products that lag other players, the second buyer said they are seeking the currency that can be the most consistent across both demo and advanced audience buying. The buyer said their agency is consistently striking deals on Nielsen, VideoAmp, iSpot and other currencies, but that agencies “have to make sure that there is operational infrastructure in place to support them, the methodology is aligned and that it can be scaled … If we’re going to move currency, we have to be able to measure everything that we’re buying at scale with one.” Some see the recent four-month standoff between Paramount and Nielsen, during which buyers were forced to scramble to transition deals from Nielsen to VideoAmp guarantees, as another way in which the multicurrency floodgates have been forced open. The second buyer said that their top takeaway from the standoff wasn’t to do with shortcomings from VideoAmp, but the agencies’ lack of readiness to handle swapping currencies at that scale. Similarly, WBD’s Porter cited the Paramount-Nielsen standoff as a push into multi-currency TV trading. “What that caused is that many of the agencies started to figure out ways to onboard VideoAmp data and get it into their systems and workflows—some more so than others,” said Porter. “But what it really established for me was that the demo world can and should support multiple currencies.”

Inside TV’s big data tipping point—how Nielsen’s shift could disrupt the upfronts

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