Breaking down TV upfront budgets—how spending will change amid economic volatility

Economic uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies is exposing the complexities of the TV ad marketplace and how the upfront model has—and hasn’t—evolved to meet modern marketing demands. In 2025, 43% of marketers intend to increase their marketing budget by at least 1% compared to 2024, and 41% anticipate their budgets to remain the same. This comes from an iSpot survey of more than 260 top marketers conducted from January to early April. Read more: How tariffs will impact media spending Although President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements and subsequent pause have alarm bells sounding in the marketing community, Sean Muller, founder and CEO of measurement company iSpot, said the company has stayed close to its clients in the week since to maintain an understanding of projections. While Muller predicted that the automotive category is likely to see the most impact from tariff-related uncertainty, “there is actually more stability than people think in the budgets” for major advertisers, he said. “Generally speaking, the advertising market is being driven by very large advertisers, and even though there’s a lot of volatility in the stock market, these budgets are crucial for the day-to-day business of these companies,” said Muller. Although Muller doesn’t predict the dollar projections to change, he said the most significant shift may be in where those dollars are allocated, and when they’re spent. For TV and streaming specifically, 51% of respondents expected their budgets to increase by at least 1%, while 35% projected they would maintain spend levels from 2024. However, Muller pointed out that this isn’t necessarily good news for the TV set. As the price of inventory in live sports and tentpole events increases, the data may point to lower overall investment from marketers who reported flat or slightly increased spending this year compared to previous years. This is particularly relevant to the upfront market, which primarily deals in securing scarce inventory and sponsorships, namely high-demand sports. According to iSpot’s survey, 55% of respondents anticipated their share of budget allocated to the upfront marketplace would stay the same as last year’s. “If there’s still a lot of instability at upfront time, advertisers may choose to put less in the upfront and reserve more for programmatic and scatter,” said Muller. “But at the end of the day, the dollars will be spent.” Others in the market have echoed the prediction that although dollars may not decrease overall, upfront commitments are likely to suffer due to the ongoing uncertainty. One media buyer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they expect their upfront spending across clients to be down about 10% year over year. The buyer said clients would be seeking to consolidate spending with media partners who can place advertising across the largest variety of channels as well as in particularly desirable content, such as the Super Bowl, which airs next year on NBC. Read more: How NBCUniversal is pitching Super Bowl LX to advertisers “As the economic uncertainty continues for many businesses due to pending tariffs, it’s hard to see budgets increasing in this environment,” said Ed Gentner, chief investment officer at media agency Canvas Worldwide, adding that continued growth in streaming viewership and the rush to secure live sports inventory will be major factors in the allocation of dollars. “With this administration’s decisions changing on a regular basis, advertisers will be reluctant to commit a large chunk of their ad budgets upfront without enough flexible dollars to feel comfortable doing so,” said Gentner. “Without additional flexibility, there could be a flight to channels with shorter commitment windows.” Similarly, Carrie Drinkwater, chief investment officer at Dentsu’s Carat U.S., predicts “upfront spending to remain flat or decline” based on macroeconomics as well as the “ongoing ratings erosion” in cable and broadcast TV, which she added “are already seeing sell-out levels decline.” Additionally, Drinkwater said clients are seeking greater transparency into “what portion of the media spend goes to actual impressions versus media supplier fees” as scrutiny of budgets increases. “Money will be placed in the upfront; there are options for a reason; there is flexibility built into the upfront,” Donna Speciale, president of ad sales and marketing at TelevisaUnivision, recently told Ad Age. “But if the money’s not in the upfront, then the money ends up coming into scatter. The money will be there, it’s just a matter of when they’re comfortable putting it in.” More: Donna Speciale talks upfront trends, including tariff impact and big data transformation On average, 36% of marketers’ TV and streaming budget is allocated to the scatter market, according to the iSpot survey. While 7% of respondents noted they would spend their entire video budget in the scatter market rather than the upfront, 12% said they would do the opposite. The meaning of the upfront has changed The definition of an upfront deal has become increasingly blurry as TV has become more digital with the growth of streaming, and skipping the upfront isn’t a simple decision. While upfront deals have traditionally locked in long-term spending for the broadcast year through direct publisher agreements, projecting programmatic investment has also become a growing factor. Disney revealed recently that 70% of its programmatic deals are now set in the upfront. When asked the methods by which marketers anticipated purchasing media this year, the majority (62%) said they would utilize DSPs, with publisher direct buys ranking second (58%). The upfront also serves a function in securing advantageous pricing for desirable inventory, which will be more expensive in the scatter market. Two media buyers said that weighing the cost increase of inventory from upfront to scatter, particularly for the fourth quarter when marketers are looking to promote holiday lines and deals, would be a major push for keeping clients in the upfront. A second buyer, whose clients aren’t always upfront spenders, said they may take a wait-and-see approach to the upfront in case bargains start emerging. “If networks are starting to get nervous about Q4 because people are pulling [upfront spend] back, could we get deals at even lower prices? [Q4 commitments] will be the bellwether.” As marketers have a more stringent eye on business outcomes associated with their ad spend, “one major unmet client need in the TV and streaming upfront market is guaranteed performance metrics,” said Robert Allaire, senior VP, group director, strategic investment, IPG Mediabrands, noting that media companies ready to do so will benefit in the upfront. While some companies, such as A+E Networks, have struck upfront deals on guaranteed metrics such as app downloads or foot traffic, many set their buys on guaranteed reach with audience demos. Despite ratings being the basis of most upfront buys, iSpot’s survey found that the metric was the least critical factor for marketers when setting deals. Rather, 53% marked outcomes as their primary concern when buying media inventory. “This underscores the fact that there’s still a disconnect in the marketplace on how [marketers] are negotiating the media buy and what’s the most important thing to get out of it, and that’s why there’s multiple [measurement] systems involved in these,” said Muller. “Ultimately, the question that’s most important is not answered by the transactional currency … The reason [marketers] are buying media is to deliver outcomes.”

Breaking down TV upfront budgets—how spending will change amid economic volatility

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