GOP has a big ad-spending edge in midterm Senate races

Democrats experiencing agita over midterm elections prospects—as inflation keeps rising, the pandemic drags on and the Biden agenda continues to stall—have another reason to agonize: Republicans already have a major edge in the political ad game surrounding the U.S. Senate. Today, we kick off our ad tracking for the 2022 election cycle, as part of our award-winning Campaign Trail coverage. Our guiding principle, as always: If you want to understand politics, follow the money—especially the ad money. Campaign Trail is a project of Ad Age Datacenter, led by Director of Data Management Kevin Brown in partnership with Kantar/CMAG. Bookmark us at AdAge.com/CampaignTrail. Subscribe to Ad Age Datacenter for essential data and insights on all of the most-advertised brands. An executive summary of—and essential context for—the charts you see below: • Among the five states—Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alabama and Wisconsin—with the highest ad spending so far on U.S. Senate campaigns across TV, radio and digital, $37.2 million has been spent by Republicans vs. $7.5 million by Democrats. Those figures tally booked spending from Dec. 28, 2021, through Election Day as of Jan. 18, 2022. (As we note in the fine print below, some candidates and political action committees began spending—some significantly—in 2021, but for the purposes of our analysis, we’re tracking all candidates’ spending from Dec. 28 forward.) • In all, 34 U.S. Senate seats are in play; we’re tracking spending across every one of those races—but for the purposes of this edition of Campaign Trail we’re just focusing on the five biggest-money races (so far). Of those five races, four—in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Alabama—are in play because the incumbents (all of whom are Republican) are retiring. See all of Ad Age’s 2021 Marketers of the Year here. Join us on March 10 for our free Ad Age In-Depth: Unlocking the Metaverse virtual event. Top five states by media spending for U.S. senate seats It's still early, but the action is in Republican primaries. Dollars in millions Media spending State Democrat Republican Total Ohio $0.0 $13.0 $13.0 Pennsylvania 0.0 8.1 8.1 North Carolina 0.0 5.2 5.2 Alabama 0.0 4.0 4.0 Wisconsin 1.5 0.9 2.3 All other 6.0 6.1 12.1 Total $7.5 $37.2 $44.6 • Republicans, of course, are looking to retake the (theoretically) evenly split U.S. Senate—though they arguably already have, given that Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) have sided with the GOP on budget bills and filibuster reform. • Other factors fueling ad spending: Some high-profile exits in key states—Rob Portman (R), the junior senator from Ohio, and Pat Toomey (R), the junior senator from Pennsylvania, have both announced they’re retiring—have created a primary-season free-for-all among the would-be successors. Ohio’s primaries are slated for May 3 and Pennsylvania's for May 17. • The biggest ad-spender in Pennsylvania so far is Mehmet Oz, the TV doctor, to the tune of $2.9 million, followed by Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO who served as under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs in the George W. Bush administration, at $1.8 million. Both Republicans are vying for Toomey’s seat. Behind the rankings: Ad Age World’s Largest Advertisers 2021 Republican Senate primary spending in Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2022 Ohio's race has been active since Sen. Rob Portman (R) announced his retirement. Pennsylvania's Sen. Pat Toomey (R) also announced retirement. Dollars in millions Ohio Media spending Mike Gibbons $6.8 Matt Dolan 4.5 Club for Growth Action 0.9 Bernie Moreno 0.4 Jane Timken 0.3 Mark Pukita 0.0 USA Freedom Fund 0.0 Pennsylvania Media spending Mehmet Oz $2.9 Dave McCormick 1.8 American Leadership Action 1.2 Honor Pennsylvania 1.0 Carla Sands 0.7 Pennsylvania Patriots PAC 0.2 Jobs for Our Future PAC 0.1 George Bochetto 0.1 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending (booked or spent) for TV, radio and digital ads between Dec. 28, 2021 and Election Day as of Jan. 18, 2022. Some candidates and PACs had begun spending -- some significantly -- in 2021. Ohio's primary is May 3, 2022. Pennsylvania's is May 17, 2022. • The biggest ad-spender in Ohio so far is businessman Mike Gibbons, to the tune of $6.8 million, followed by Matt Dolan, a state senator, at $4.5 million. Gibbons has recently been polling below former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel and “Hillbilly Elegy” author/venture capitalist J.D. Vance. All are Republicans. As for Dolan, he’s been polling badly enough (near the bottom of the heap in the single digits) that Cincinnati public radio station WVXU’s website recently ran a story titled “Let’s not forget Matt Dolan exists in Ohio’s Senate race for Rob Portman’s seat.” The piece contends that Dolan “is the only one of the seven Republican candidates in Ohio’s U.S. Senate primary who hasn’t spent every waking moment sucking up to Donald Trump and his followers.” In other words, the 2022 midterms for Republicans in Ohio—and elsewhere across the country—are really about the 500-pound elephant in the room (a room, that is, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida). Subscribe to Ad Age Datacenter for essential data and insights on all of the most-advertised brands.

GOP has a big ad-spending edge in midterm Senate races

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