Midterm ad spending—California sports betting bill leads the way

With less than six weeks left until Election Day, and early voting already underway in some states, U.S. campaign ad spending levels continue to astonish. Here’s what you need to know right now: • Total campaign ad spending for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial and other key races in the U.S. midterm elections has surged past $3.7 billion, according to the latest Ad Age Campaign Ad Scorecard analysis. (Campaign Ad Scorecard is part of Ad Age’s Campaign Trail coverage, a project of Ad Age Datacenter, led by Director of Data Management Kevin Brown in partnership with Kantar/CMAG.) • That $3.7 billion total includes TV, radio and tracked digital advertising (from Dec. 28, 2021, through Election Day, as of Sept. 26, 2022). Scroll down for our in-depth charts. • To give you a sense of the pace of spending, that total is nearly $700 million more than the figure ($3 billion) we reported in a Campaign Ad Scorecard we published on Sept. 1. See all of Ad Age's 2023 Agency A-List winners here • The most expensive race this midterm isn’t for an elective office—it’s for an issue: sports betting in California. There are two different ballot initiatives—Proposition 26 and Proposition 27—on the ballot in the Golden State related to sports betting. The latter is a measure to allow online sports betting, while the former has to do with legalizing sports betting on American Indian lands, primarily at casinos. More ad dollars have been spent (or booked) for (and against) Proposition 27 than for any other contest. Combined, spending on pro- and anti- advertising for both 26 and 27 now totals $314.3 million, per Ad Age Datacenter’s analysis. • Notably, big national brand marketers in the gambling space—DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM—have been pouring money into the coffers of the pro-27 groups. • The most ad-soaked, spendy race in the country involving specific politicians is the U.S. Senate face-off in Georgia, where Republican nominee (and former football star) Herschel Walker is trying to replace incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock. Republicans and Democrats—including the candidates’ campaigns and the PACs supporting them—have spent a combined $203 million on ads surrounding the race. • It’s worth noting that all five of the most expensive races in the country involving specific politicians are about U.S. Senate seats—in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, in addition to Georgia. For now we’ll just focus on the high-profile Pennsylvania race, which pits Republican nominee Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor and former TV host, against John Fetterman, the Key State’s lieutenant governor. Republicans and Democrats—including the candidates’ campaigns and the PACs supporting them—have spent a combined $175.1 million on ads surrounding the race. Scroll down for more specifics. • Gubernatorial races, including the Texas face-off between Democrat Beto O’Rourke and incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, round out our top 15 list of the most ad-soaked, spendy races in the country. O’Rourke vs. Abbott is actually a relatively economical race, with a combined ad-spending total—by Republicans, Democrats and the PACs that support them—of $47.8 million. Scroll down for more specifics. • Incidentally, as of this writing, poll-parsing site FiveThirtyEight says that “Republicans are slightly favored to win the House” and “Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate,” per a statistical model that simulates the election in each chamber 40,000 times. Keep reading here. The most expensive race this mid-term (so far) isn't for an elected office California's Prop 27, an online sports betting initiative, is the largest media spender. Dollars in millions. Ballot initiativesMedia spending Prop 27 (includes ads for Yes and No)$233.3 Prop 27 (including ads calling for "Yes on 26, No on 27")280.8 Prop 26 (includes ads for Yes and No)33.5 Prop 26 (including ads calling for "Yes on 26, No on 27)"81.0 Total for props 26 and 27$314.3 Proposition sponsors include: No on 26, Taxpayers against Special Interest Monopolies; No on 27, Californians for Tribal Sovereignty and Safe Gaming; No on 27, Coalition for Safe, Responsible Gaming; Yes on 26, No on 27, Coalition for Safe, Responsible Gaming; and Yes on 27, Californians for Solutions for Homelessness and Mental Health. See more notes below. Races with the most media spending Top campaigns by media spending. Includes only statewide races. Dollars in millions. Media spending Race, State/CandidatesDemocratRepublicanIndependent and otherTotal U.S. Senate, Georgia$111.9$87.3$3.8$203.0 Raphael Warnock (D)58.458.4 Herschel Walker (R)5.25.2 U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania71.7103.4175.1 John Fetterman (D)16.816.8 Mehmet Oz (R)18.818.8 U.S. Senate, Arizona90.247.02.1139.3 Mark Kelly (D)34.634.6 Blake Masters (R)3.13.1 U.S. Senate, Nevada87.844.62.5135.0 Catherine Cortez Masto (D)31.031.0 Adam Laxalt (R)8.98.9 U.S. Senate, Wisconsin67.866.6134.4 Mandela Barnes (D)10.610.6 Ron Johnson (R)12.412.4 Governor, Illinois56.365.8122.1 JB Pritzker (D)36.436.4 Darren Bailey (R)8.18.1 U.S. Senate, Ohio26.591.0117.6 Tim Ryan (D)22.022.0 JD Vance (R)3.73.7 U.S. Senate, New Hampshire42.148.21.792.0 Maggie Hassan (D)16.016.0 Don Bolduc (R)0.00.0 U.S. Senate, North Carolina20.355.375.6 Cheri Beasley (D)12.912.9 Ted Budd (R)4.64.6 Governor, Wisconsin37.136.573.5 Tony Evers (D)15.215.2 Tim Michels (R)11.311.3 Governor, Georgia37.430.968.2 Stacey Abrams (D)16.616.6 Brian Kemp (R)6.26.2 Governor, Pennsylvania36.131.067.1 Josh Shapiro (D)30.430.4 Doug Mastriano (R)0.50.5 Governor, Michigan46.417.463.8 Gretchen Whitmer (D)9.39.3 Tudor Dixon (R)0.10.1 Governor, Nevada28.933.262.1 Steve Sisolak (D)8.08.0 Joe Lombardo (R)4.84.8 Governor, Texas18.529.347.8 Beto O'Rourke (D)10.610.6 Greg Abbott (R)26.126.1 Total top 15779.0787.410.21,576.6 All other763.4838.8567.62,169.8 Total$1,542.4$1,626.3$577.8$3,746.4 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending (booked or spent) for TV, radio and digital ads between Dec. 28, 2021, and Election Day as of Sep. 26, 2022. Some candidates and PACs had begun spending, some significantly, in 2021. spending shown next to candidate names excludes PACs. See Ad Age Datacenter Agency Report 2022 The agency business rebounded with a surge in revenue and hiring. But caution signs are ahead. Click here

Midterm ad spending—California sports betting bill leads the way

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