U.S. Senate campaign ad spending surges past half a billion dollars

Campaign ad spending has surged past the half-billion-dollar mark—with just five battleground states accounting for nearly $400 million of the total, according to the latest Ad Age Campaign Ad Scorecard analysis. Campaign Ad Scorecard is part of Ad Age’s Campaign Trail coverage, a project of Ad Age Datacenter, led by Director of Data Management Kevin Brown in partnership with Kantar/CMAG. An executive summary of—and essential context for—the charts you see below: • Five battleground states—Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, Arizona and Nevada—have together seen $389 million in campaign ad spending across TV, radio and digital advertising from Dec. 28, 2021, through Election Day as of May 11, 2022. Our tallies include tracked spending (including advance bookings of media space) by the candidates’ campaigns as well as the PACs supporting them. (As we note in the fine print below, some candidates and PACs began spending—some significantly—in 2021, but for the purposes of our analysis, we’re tracking all candidates’ spending from Dec. 28 forward.) • Of those five battleground states, Republicans are outspending Democrats by wide margins in two: Pennsylvania ($67 million vs. $38 million) and Ohio ($57 million vs. $13 million). • In three of those five battleground states, Democrats are outspending Republicans by wide margins: Georgia ($61 million vs. $31 million), Arizona ($49 million vs. $16 million) and Nevada ($45 million vs. $12 million). • Pennsylvania is the one state so far that has seen U.S. Senate campaign ad spending surge past the $100-million mark during our measurement window. That’s largely due to spending by political action committees: the pro-Democrat Senate Majority PAC, which has spent $26 million on advertising; the pro-Republican Senate Leadership Fund, at $19 million; and the pro-Republican Honor Pennsylvania, $17 million. Subscribe to Ad Age Datacenter for essential data and insights on all of the most-advertised brands. Top five states by spending in U.S. Senate races Pennsylvania and Georgia are the current battlegrounds. Dollars in millions. Media spending Race Democrat Republican Total Pennsylvania $38.4 $67.2 $105.6 Georgia 60.7 31.5 92.2 Ohio 12.8 56.5 69.4 Arizona 49.1 16.4 65.5 Nevada 44.7 11.5 56.2 All other 55.4 112.7 168.1 Total $261.1 $295.9 $557.0 Top five media spenders in U.S. Senate races PACs lead the way. Dollars in millions. Sponsor (party) Media spending Senate Majority PAC (D) $107.5 Senate Leadership Fund (R) 106.3 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) (D) 33.6 Raphael Warnock (D) 30.3 Club for Growth Action (R) 21.3 All other 258.0 Total $557.0 Top five spenders in Pennsylvania's Senate race Oz and McCormick are neck and neck. Dollars in millions. Sponsor (party) Media spending Senate Majority PAC (D) $25.9 Senate Leadership Fund (R) 18.9 Honor Pennsylvania (R) 17.0 Mehmet Oz (R) 10.2 Dave McCormick (R) 10.1 All other 23.6 Total $105.6 Top five spenders in Georgia's Senate race Warnock is outspending the PACs. Dollars in millions. Sponsor (party) Media spending Raphael Warnock (D) $30.3 Senate Leadership Fund (R) 28.2 Senate Majority PAC (D) 24.4 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) (D) 5.9 Herschel Walker (R) 2.0 All other 1.3 Total $92.2 Top five spenders in Arizona's Senate race Dollars in millions. Sponsor (party) Media spending Senate Majority PAC (D) $22.1 Mark Kelly (D) 12.8 Senate Leadership Fund (R) 9.2 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) (D) 7.8 Majority Forward (D) 3.2 All other 10.3 Total $65.5 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending (booked or spent) for TV, radio and digital ads between Dec. 28, 2021, and Election Day as of May 11, 2022. Some candidates and PACs had begun spending—some significantly—in 2021. The Pennsylvania primary is May 17. The Georgia primary is May 24. The Arizona primary is Aug. 2. • Feeding into that ad-spending level is the fact that there’s no incumbent—U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (R) announced in October 2020 that he wouldn’t seek reelection—and a field that includes two well-financed Republican candidates: former TV doctor Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick. Their campaigns have each burned through just over $10 million each on measured advertising. • Also complicating matters in the Keystone State is the fact that Republican candidate Kathy Barnette—best known for being a political commentator who has appeared on Fox News and other outlets—has been rocking the polls lately, despite minimal ad spending (less than $200,000 during our measurement window), though pro-MAGA PAC Club for Growth is reportedly spending $2 million to back her. As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette summed it up in a headline from last Thursday: “Kathy Barnette’s surge in GOP polls puts her in line with Oz, McCormick 6 days out from Pa.’s primary”—on May 17. See Ad Age Datacenter Agency Report 2022 Stories, rankings, stats Click here Subscribe to Ad Age Datacenter for essential data and insights on all of the most-advertised brands. • Politico and other outlets have labeled Barnette an “ultra-MAGA” candidate and the consensus among political observers seems to be that she’s surging in part because the candidate endorsed by Donald Trump, Mehmet Oz, isn’t seen as being, well, MAGA enough by MAGA purists. Given how much the Republican establishment has poured into backing Oz and McCormick so far, Barnette’s rise is an expensive shocker. How does Trump feel about all this? “Kathy Barnette will never be able to win the General Election against the Radical Left Democrats,” as he put it in a written statement May 12, adding that he thinks Oz “is the only one who will be able to easily defeat the Crazed, Lunatic Democrat in Pennsylvania.” (He presumably means Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is leading in the polls over fellow Democrats including U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb.) • Georgia’s primary falls on May 24, Nevada’s on June 14 and Arizona’s on Aug. 2, while Ohio’s already took place on May 3. • In Ohio, venture capitalist and “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance surged to a narrow win in the wake of Trump’s April 15 endorsement, clinching the Republican nomination for the seat being vacated by Rob Portman (R), despite spending less than $2 million on campaign advertising during our measurement window. Vance will face off against U.S. Congressman Tim Ryan, who won the Democratic nomination in the primary having spent or booked $17 million on media. • In Georgia, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) accounts for $30 million of the state’s ad tally based on advertising booked or spent. He’s defending the seat he won in a January 2021 $500 million double Senate seat runoff, and is the largest non-PAC media spender in any race being tracked by Ad Age Datacenter/CMAG in this cycle so far. In the weeks and months ahead, we’ll take a closer look at the races in Nevada and Arizona—and other states—as their primary dates near. See Ad Age Datacenter Agency Report 2022 Stories, rankings, stats Click here RSVP for Ad Age In-Depth: TV Pivot on May 24 and 25 at AdAge.com/TVPivot

U.S. Senate campaign ad spending surges past half a billion dollars

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