It seems like just yesterday that the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene was writing the book on COVID-safe romance: Encouraging the public to join “sexy ‘Zoom parties,’” host mask-on group masturbation sessions, and experiment with “kinky” physical barriers like walls in what many assumed to be government-speak for glory holes. In these unprecedented times, the city reminded New Yorkers, “you are your safest sex partner.”

Thankfully, those days will soon be behind us. Nationwide estimates show that more than 1-in-4 Americans is now fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and the bulk of states are due to cross the 50% immunization threshold by mid-June, which means that singles can safely prepare to mingle and gear up for a return of the roaring—nay, whoring—’20s. 

Backing that impending tsunami of horniness is a chorus of brand marketers primed to respond to 2021’s so-called “hot vax summer,” although not everyone is ready to jump into that concept head-first.

“Before a big summer, there’s going to be a bit of a defrost period this spring,” says Nicole Parlapiano, VP of marketing at Tinder, who notes that the dating app’s member bios show less pent-up lust than they do a desire for gentle human connection, such as hand-holding and cuddling. “It’s been a long year and the desire to reconnect in real life is strong. But we think our members will ease back into physical affection when meeting new people IRL,” or in real life, she says.

Note that Tinder had been without a chief marketing officer for months until news broke last week that the company had poached former Pizza Hut CMO George Felix for the role, tasking him with strengthening its Gen Z user base.

It’s too early for the dating app—which referred to the coming months a potential “summer of love” in a recent report—to divulge any marketing plans related to the anticipated spike in hooking up, Parlapiano confirms, but she adds that “making up for lost time is definitely relevant to our category.” And Tinder has every reason to think that: 2020 was the busiest year in its history.

Just a couple of weeks after the COVID-19 pandemic became severe in the U.S., Tinder registered a record-breaking 3 billion swipes in a single day, which was subsequently surpassed 130 more times throughout 2020. On a per-user basis, the app’s activity was also through the roof, with total swipes up 11% compared to the previous year and profile matches rising by 42%.

With most American singles stuck at home last spring under sweeping stay-at-home orders, it’s understandable that online dating platforms experienced a surge in engagement, but that activity also translated to an e-commerce boom for some romantic retailers that would otherwise lean on their brick-and-mortar operations.

“As soon as the lockdown last April started, our online business, which had been basically an afterthought, exploded,” says Pete Potenzini, director of marketing at Lion’s Den, an Ohio-based purveyor of adult novelties with retail locations in nearly two dozen states.

“I feel like we became part of an entertainment dollar option,” he adds, noting that disposable income from singles and couples alike—cash that might’ve otherwise been spent at restaurants and movie theaters—was instead funneled into lingerie, vibrators and more.

This year marks the Lion’s Den’s 50th anniversary, and while pandemic precautions have prevented the adults-only chain from holding the milestone celebration it originally intended, the company does have tentative plans to host a scaled-down live event by summer’s end in its hometown of Columbus. 

So far in advance, details of the in-person bonanza are sparse, though Potenzini confirms the company is exploring ’70s rock bands to headline the show and believes that late summer is a realistic timeline for the COVID-19 situation to improve in Ohio. “We’ve been reluctant to be the first ones to rip off the masks,” he says. “Unfortunately, we are not ready to go full bore [saying that] everybody’s good to get out and start mingling.”

In the meantime, Lion’s Den is gearing up for Masturbation Month, an annual celebration of self-pleasure held every May. But instead of focusing on males, as the retailer has historically done, it is instead using the Masturbation Month of its golden jubilee year to reward women—or more specifically, give away 50 vibrators to deserving females via a social media-based contest.

“As we know, women have born the brunt of COVID life,” says Katie Keating, co-founder and co-chief creative officer at ad agency Fancy, which was worked with Lion’s Den since 2017. Women have disproportionately been laid off from work, tasked with caring for children who are schooling from home, and faced with spending time alone, all of which Lion’s Den hopes to help remedy by “giving them some self-love.”

And while its associated social campaign and giveaway will run throughout the month of May, Potenzini, who believes marketing to women is “a matter of survival” for the adult retailer, adds one caveat to the annual self-pleasuring celebration: “Every month is masturbation month at the Lion’s Den.”

Most marketers in the romance and dating spaces agree that before this summer’s rush of promiscuity and casual sex—a “slutty summer,” as dubbed by the New York Post—eligible singles will have to first progress through some sort of “spring thaw.” But once this warm-up period subsides, not all are unanimous in thinking that a dramatic spike in random hook ups will follow.

“The biggest thing that we are predicting at Hinge is a relationship boom,” says Logan Ury, the dating app’s director of relationship science and head of its in-house research team, Hinge Labs. “People are prioritizing dating more and there is a huge interest in making up for lost time.”

According to its data, one-third of users have expressed more urgency about finding a long-term partner after the pandemic is over, while even more have bucked “bad dating habits” such as returning to an ex, she says, offering a summer prediction in line with Hinge’s “designed to be deleted” mantra that centers it as a platform built upon serious relationships. “Singles are taking their time to think about relationships,” Ury adds, “and I think Hinge is really well-positioned here.”

Ayni Raimondi, VP of brand at dating platform Match, agrees, saying that some of its users will likely shift their attention away from summer flings and one night stands, and instead may look for a more compatible long-term partner.

“We’ve seen from the research that one of the biggest changes that occurred to singles during the pandemic, is that they’ve re-evaluated their dating approach and many have become more motivated and purposeful in their search for love,” says Raimondi, who declined to share specifics around the company’s upcoming marketing plans related to the so-called hot vax summer.

Looking past the pandemic, Hinge is also predicting a lasting change to the way singles date. Instead of finding each other online and then scheduling a hit-or-miss first date like cavemen, Ury suggests the staying power of an interim step: informal video dates that have become a staple of singledom since COVID-19 began.

Calling the concept a “low-pressure, virtual vibe check,” Ury believes this feature—which was recently integrated into the Hinge app—is poised to outlive the pandemic as it allows prospective singles to suss out their matches and potentially spare the time and money that would go towards an awkward first date. “The majority of users who have tried video dating say they’d like to keep doing so in the future,” she says.