The economy is down for the count. U.S. gross domestic product fell in the first quarter, stocks tumbled into a bear market this month and consumer sentiment is sinking. Inflation, interest rates and recession fears are rising fast.

Overall U.S. ad spending—and ad spending for the 100 Leading National Advertisers—declined in each of the four recessions dating back to 1991.

Advertising spending actually rose during the rough recessions of 1973-75, 1980 and 1981-82—periods marked by double-digit inflation that drove up the costs of goods and services, including advertising.

History could be repeating itself: The U.S. consumer price index jumped 8.6% in the 12 months ended May 2022. That’s the largest 12-month increase since 1981.

Despite the headwinds, advertising forecasters predict U.S. ad spending will keep growing. But agency and media stocks have tumbled—falling in some cases more sharply than the broader market, one possible indication of investor pessimism about advertising, media and marketing.

Want good news? Let’s talk about … last year.

As the economy and ad market emerged from the COVID-19 lockdown, ad spending for the 100 Leading National Advertisers in 2021 grew at its fastest pace since 1976, when the nation was climbing out of a deep recession.

More from Ad Age's annual report on marketers: The Leading National Advertisers in 2021 scored the second-biggest spending gain on record, an extraordinary turnaround from the pandemic plunge in 2020.