Black Friday 2021—everything marketers need to know

Black Friday is one of the most recognizable terms in the shopping lexicon. Yet its meaning has changed over the years—and this year could be the most unusual Black Friday in years as brands confront supply chain issues that are resulting in higher prices, product shortages and other forces that experts say are forcing marketers to push goods with the highest profit margins. Retailers are also struggling to adjust to the changes in consumer behavior brought on by the pandemic, including the dramatic shift to online spending. Read: The supply chain challenges affecting brands today Consumers are still expected to spend—but retail experts don’t expect them to spend solely on the Friday after Thanksgiving, this year falling on Nov. 26. The National Retail Federation is predicting a record rise in spending in November and December this year, growing between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020 to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. Below, Ad Age tackles answers to some of the most commonly asked questions about Black Friday in 2021: Is Black Friday even a thing anymore? Short answer: not as such. Rather than a single day of shopping, it has evolved into more of a marketing label used to promote early holiday deals. For decades, Black Friday helped cement an American capitalist tradition that meant waking up at the crack of dawn to get the cheapest TV. The advent of online shopping, however, helped usher in a new way of shopping that meant consumers could make purchases from the couch in their pajamas, rather than waiting in long lines. It also lengthened the busy holiday shopping period with new shopping holidays such as “Cyber Monday,” or the Monday after Thanksgiving, and “Small Business Saturday,” the Saturday after, which also began cannibalizing some of Friday’s spending. In recent years, “Black Friday”-themed deals have begun earlier than ever, creeping into October in some cases as each retailer tries to one-up the others. COVID-19 also helped make Black Friday less relevant, since more consumers became used to online buying and more brands digitized their offerings. Furthermore, retailers such as Lowe’s and Gap tried to avoid in-person crowds, eliminating so-called “doorbuster deals” by offering a more steady rollout of promotions throughout the holiday season. “Black Friday is still a thing in terms of messaging—it’s sort of an umbrella now as opposed to a day is how we’re thinking about it,” said Greg Revelle, chief marketing officer of Kohl’s, on a recent episode of Ad Age Remotely, noting that the chain will offer “Black Friday” deals earlier in the week and into the next week. “Consumers immediately understand what a Black Friday deal is and it doesn’t necessarily need to be on that day anymore.” See Ad Age's 2021 Social Commerce Guide here. How NFTs and the Metaverse could solve supply chain issues All the social commerce capabilities introduced in 2021 How retail chains are using social commerce this holiday Influencers impacted by supply chain shortages Why is it called Black Friday, anyway? Most consumers might be surprised at the origins of Black Friday. A common misbelief is that the “black” signifies the importance of sales that day for retailers, which need to move out of the red into the black for better financial health for the year. Instead, Black Friday originally referred to a negative event, like the 1929 stock market crash or assassination of President John F. Kennedy. In the 1960s, the term edged into the retail industry by referring to the throngs of people, fresh from the Army Navy football game held on the day after Thanksgiving, crowded Philadelphia’s Market Street, where five department stores would unveil their holiday windows, historian Michael Lisicky, the author of department store history books “Gimbels Has It!” and “Wanamaker’s: Meet Me At the Eagle,” told Ad Age last year. A few years later, retailers began using Black Friday to promote sales and deals on the day after Thanksgiving. Subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, check us out on Spotify and hear us on Stitcher. This is our RSS feed. Tell a friend! How will this year’s supply chain issues affect Black Friday? Good question. Supply chain challenges have been one of this year’s biggest stories in retail, as businesses big and small grapple with a dearth of shipping containers, increased prices and delivery times, and labor shortages. The current disruptions are “unprecedented,” according to Volodymyr Babich, professor of operations and information management at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business. Since most consumers are aware of the crisis by now, Babich expects that many will have already completed their holiday shopping, long before Black Friday rolls around next week. “Given the shortages everybody is experiencing and given the attention everyone is paying to supply chain, consumers are buying holiday gifts earlier—so right now, people are already saying, ‘You are late if you are planning to buy Christmas gifts,’” said Babich. “This adds to the other forces that were making Black Friday less relevant.” Traffic to holiday deal websites for Best Buy and Walmart spiked in mid-October with the release of holiday promotions, according to digital intelligence platform Similarweb. Similarly, traffic to such pages for those retailers, along with Costco, rose 134% on Nov. 1, Similarweb reported. Early shopping is something Lowe’s is already seeing, according to Marisa Thalberg, executive VP and chief brand and marketing officer. “We got product to our stores early, we feel pretty well prepared,” she said on a recent episode of Ad Age Remotely. “You joke, ‘Why am I seeing Christmas already in the store we haven’t even hit Halloween yet,’ but that’s what the customer wants—the customer is shopping it early.” Read: The supply chain challenges affecting brands today Which stores are open on Thanksgiving and Black Friday this year? While Black Friday had always been the unofficial start to the holiday shopping season, eager retailers began offering deals earlier and earlier by opening on Thanksgiving Day beginning in the 90s with stores such as Kmart, for example. In 2013, the trend truly gained ground when marketers like Best Buy, Macy’s and Walmart essentially urged consumers to leave their turkeys behind at the table and shop special Thursday promotions for dessert. Subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, check us out on Spotify and hear us on Stitcher. This is our RSS feed. Tell a friend! Then in 2015, outdoors brand REI threw the entire shopping weekend into upheaval by declaring that not only would its stores remain closed on Thanksgiving, a national holiday, but that it would also close Black Friday, giving workers a much-needed break while also encouraging consumers to spend the day outside. The movement, called Opt Outside, has continued with some participation from other like-minded brands such as Subaru, which in 2016 ran a program that involved bringing shelter pets outdoors. REI will again close on Friday this year and pay its employees to go outdoors. Read: Don’t let the doorbusters hit you on the way out, Black Friday As far as Turkey Day goes, most stores, including Kohl’s and Target, announced early this year that they will not be open on Thanksgiving Day, a pandemic-induced tradition that might see the day return to its shopping-free holiday roots. In a release, Kohl’s cited “positive response from last year's closure on Thanksgiving Day, as well as evolving preferences in how and when customers want to shop during the holiday season.” However, most large chains will open their doors on Friday—some earlier than usual, including Kohl’s and Macy’s. Target and Best Buy will vary hours depending on location. For the first time, Walmart will give its Walmart+ members early access to Black Friday events throughout November, as it seeks to compete with Amazon Prime. Retail experts say Black Friday still offers an opportunity for marketers to get shoppers in the door, and potentially make more inspirational purchases. “The way Black Friday works is you try to get the consumers in the store by promising fantastic deals and hope that in addition to buying those fantastic deals they’ll also buy some other stuff,” said Babich, noting that such relationships are another way to “build brand loyalty” particularly if retailers still have merchandise to sell on store shelves. So who is having a big sale? Since most brands use “Black Friday” as a holiday deal signifier with promotions shoppable on several days, not just the Friday after Thanksgiving, many of the sales have already been announced. For example, Amazon on Monday released its list of deals starting on Thanksgiving Day. Such offerings, part of the e-commerce giant’s 48-hour Black Friday event, include “deep discounts” on top items from brands such as Samsung, Mattel, Instant Pot and Shopbop. Target’s week of promotions begin Sunday, with more coming late in the week. A “first look” included discounts of up to $60 on an Apple Watch, and buy one, get one offers on certain toys from Marvel and Beyblade, as well as discounts on electronics such as Dyson vacuums and Roku Smart TVs. Family pajamas, still a popular trend according to Kohl’s Revelle, will also be promoted at both Target and Kohl’s. But will there be anything left to buy? Consumers, if not already done with holiday shopping, have already begun it, if early reads from the National Retail Federation and market research firm NPD Group are any indication. For the week ending Nov. 6, U.S. discretionary general merchandise revenue rose 18% over the year-earlier period, and 19% over the week in pre-pandemic 2019, according to NPD. Popular holiday items such as small appliances, toys and tech products were up by double-digits in recent weeks over 2019, NPD found. Marketers have said they are planning to be flexible. Thalberg of Lowe’s said that she’s prepared to be agile when it comes to marketing what is still in stock in the coming weeks. However, experts agree that whatever is left to buy will be expensive. Already, prices are increasing across the board—the consumer price index rose 6.2% in October over last year, following a similar rise in September. In addition, retailers will be focusing on higher-end items in order to make the most profit. “When they were deciding which ones they wanted to ship from overseas, which ones to put on their ships, which ones to get through the congested ports, the natural choice is to prioritize the products that have the highest profit margins—the more luxury products,” said Babich. “We won’t have as many cheaper alternatives this time.” Is anyone doing anything particularly innovative this year? Black Friday can still be a chance for brands to run creative campaigns—even if they are not driving people to visit malls. Popular Nintendo game "Animal Crossing: New Horizons" will host a sale within the store in its game—very meta. Called “Nook Friday,” the sale will include 30% discounts at the Nook’s Cranny store. Read: It could be the most expensive Thanksgiving ever—how food brands are responding The Kraken Rum is taking a darker route with its Black Friday promotion, which involves a series of activities consumers can compete in for prizes. For eight hours beginning at noon every hour, a chest will open to offer a prize like the chance to train for a submarine captain license in Curaçao if you tattoo a kraken on your body. “The greater the sacrifice, the more generous the reward,” read a release promoting the #StepIntoTheDark initiative, which will be amplified with paid search, programmatic and custom content. Meanwhile, brands outside the retail space are hoping to capitalize on consumers’ willingness to spend with their own campaigns and discounts. Earlier this week, Expedia began running its first Black Friday-themed marketing push, urging customers to choose getaways over gadgets. One spot zooms into a beach scene on a TV as a voiceover asks, “This Black Friday do you want a TV? Or do you want…the place on the TV?” This year, the answer from consumers, who are spending on both retail items and travel, might just be both. Register for Ad Age Next: CMO at AdAge.com/NextCMO.

Black Friday 2021—everything marketers need to know

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